auroc
What Drives the Inlier-Memorization Effect? A Theory of Outlier Detection via Early Training Dynamics
Outlier detection (OD) aims to identify anomalous instances by learning the underlying structure of normal data (inliers), and is particularly challenging in fully unsupervised settings where no information about anomalies is available during training. Recent advances have leveraged the inlier-memorization (IM) effect, a phenomenon in which deep models memorize inlier patterns earlier than those of outliers, as a powerful signal for distinguishing outliers. However, despite its empirical success, the theoretical understanding of the IM effect remains limited. In this work, we present a theoretical study of the IM effect. Focusing on a simple autoencoder, we show that, under mild assumptions, the model can successfully memorize inliers while failing to memorize outliers during certain stages of early training. In particular, we characterize not only the emergence of the IM effect, but also its strength and persistence, and analyze how these properties depend on the data distribution and parameter initialization. In addition, building on these insights, we derive simple yet practical guidelines for enhancing the IM effect, including data preprocessing and parameter initialization schemes, achieving state-of-the-art performance on the ADBench datasets. Our findings provide a theoretical foundation for the IM effect and offer actionable directions for improving IM-based outlier detection methods.
Improving Patient Subtyping on Longitudinal Data using Representations from Mamba-based Architecture
Mottalib, Md Mozaharul, Beheshti, Rahmatollah
Effective sub-typing (also known as grouping or clustering) of patients using their electronic health record (EHR) data can greatly inform precision medicine efforts. However, subtyping temporal EHR datasets is known to be challenging due to inherent EHR issues, including complexity and irregularity. In this study, we propose a self-supervised Mamba-based model that learns effective EHR representations and enables enhanced patient subtyping. We evaluate the proposed model on public and private real-world EHR datasets to classify the data based on the available labels and subtype patients based on the representations learned from the model. Through an extensive set of experiments, we demonstrate that our model's design choices lead to better performance compared to competitive baseline models for prediction. Moreover, we evaluate several clustering techniques to demonstrate that our findings offer valuable insights into subtyping patients based on temporal records from EHR models\footnote{Our implementations are available at https://github.com/healthylaife/triplet_mamba.
When Does Synthetic Data Augmentation Improve Score-Based Imbalanced Classification?
Ma, Zhengchi, Lyu, Pengfei, Zhang, Anru R.
Synthetic data augmentation is widely used to mitigate class imbalance, but its theoretical effects on score-based classification remain poorly understood. This paper develops a framework for characterizing when synthetic minority augmentation can improve threshold-integrated and threshold-optimized metrics, including AUROC, AUPRC, best-threshold balanced accuracy, and best-threshold \(\F_1\) score. We separate the effect of augmentation into two components: a change in effective class weighting and a discrepancy between the synthetic and true minority distributions. Under well-specified score models, the raw estimator already targets the likelihood-ratio ordering, which is population-optimal for the metrics considered. Consequently, augmentation cannot provide a fundamental population-level improvement beyond possible finite-sample variance reduction, and may introduce additional bias through synthetic distributional error. We further establish minimax lower bounds showing that the raw estimator already achieves the optimal metric-regret rate in the well-specified regime. Under misspecification, however, augmentation can play a qualitatively different role: by changing the effective class balance, it can alter the restricted-class projection and correct ranking errors induced by the raw imbalanced objective. We provide explicit improvement bounds quantifying the roles of approximation error, finite-sample estimation error, and synthetic distributional error. Simulation studies corroborate the theory, demonstrating limited gains under well-specification and nontrivial but nonmonotone improvements under misspecification.
Amplifying Prominent Representations in Multimodal Learning via Variational Dirichlet Process
Developing effective multimodal fusion approaches has become increasingly essential in many real-world scenarios, such as health care and finance. The key challenge is how to preserve the feature expressiveness in each modality while learning cross-modal interactions. Previous approaches primarily focus on the cross-modal alignment, while over-emphasis on the alignment of marginal distributions of modalities may impose excess regularization and obstruct meaningful representations within each modality. The Dirichlet process (DP) mixture model is a powerful Bayesian non-parametric method that can amplify the most prominent features by its richer-gets-richer property, which allocates increasing weights to them. Inspired by this unique characteristic of DP, we propose a new DP-driven multimodal learning framework that automatically achieves an optimal balance between prominent intra-modal representation learning and cross-modal alignment. Specifically, we assume that each modality follows a mixture of multivariate Gaussian distributions and further adopt DP to calculate the mixture weights for all the components. This paradigm allows DP to dynamically allocate the contributions of features and select the most prominent ones, leveraging its richer-gets-richer property, thus facilitating multimodal feature fusion. Extensive experiments on several multimodal datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our model over other competitors.
Unifying Reconstruction and Density Estimation via Invertible Contraction Mapping in One-Class Classification
Due to the difficulty in collecting all unexpected abnormal patterns, One-Class Classification (OCC) has become the most popular approach to anomaly detection (AD). Reconstruction-based AD method relies on the discrepancy between inputs and reconstructed results to identify unobserved anomalies. However, recent methods trained only on normal samples may generalize to certain abnormal inputs, leading to well-reconstructed anomalies and degraded performance. To address this, we constrain reconstructions to remain on the normal manifold using a novel AD framework based on contraction mapping. This mapping guarantees that any input converges to a fixed point through iterations of this mapping.
Capturing Polysemanticity with PRISM: A Multi-Concept Feature Description Framework
Automated interpretability research aims to identify concepts encoded in neural network features to enhance human understanding of model behavior. Within the context of large language models (LLMs) for natural language processing (NLP), current automated neuron-level feature description methods face two key challenges: limited robustness and the assumption that each neuron encodes a single concept (monosemanticity), despite increasing evidence of polysemanticity. This assumption restricts the expressiveness of feature descriptions and limits their ability to capture the full range of behaviors encoded in model internals. To address this, we introduce Polysemantic FeatuRe Identification and Scoring Method (PRISM), a novel framework specifically designed to capture the complexity of features in LLMs. Unlike approaches that assign a single description per neuron, common in many automated interpretability methods in NLP, PRISM produces more nuanced descriptions that account for both monosemantic and polysemantic behavior. We apply PRISM to LLMs and, through extensive benchmarking against existing methods, demonstrate that our approach produces more accurate and faithful feature descriptions, improving both overall description quality (via a description score) and the ability to capture distinct concepts when polysemanticity is present (via a polysemanticity score).
SteerConf: Steering LLMs for Confidence Elicitation
Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit impressive performance across diverse domains but often suffer from overconfidence, limiting their reliability in critical applications. We propose SteerConf, a novel framework that systematically steers LLMs' confidence scores to improve their calibration and reliability. SteerConf introduces three key components: (1) a steering prompt strategy that guides LLMs to produce confidence scores in specified directions (e.g., conservative or optimistic) by leveraging prompts with varying steering levels; (2) a steered confidence consistency measure that quantifies alignment across multiple steered confidences to enhance calibration; and (3) a steered confidence calibration method that aggregates confidence scores using consistency measures and applies linear quantization for answer selection. SteerConf operates without additional training or fine-tuning, making it broadly applicable to existing LLMs. Experiments on seven benchmarks spanning professional knowledge, common sense, ethics, and reasoning tasks, using advanced LLM models (GPT-3.5, LLaMA 3, GPT-4), demonstrate that SteerConf significantly outperforms existing methods, often by a significant margin. Our findings highlight the potential of steering the confidence of LLMs to enhance their reliability for safer deployment in real-world applications.
IPAD: Inverse Prompt for AI Detection - A Robust and Interpretable LLM-Generated Text Detector
Large Language Models (LLMs) have attained human-level fluency in text generation, which complicates the distinguishing between human-written and LLM generated texts. This increases the risk of misuse and highlights the need for reliable detectors. Yet, existing detectors exhibit poor robustness on out-of-distribution (OOD) data and attacked data, which is critical for real-world scenarios. Also, they struggle to provide interpretable evidence to support their decisions, thus undermining reliability. In light of these challenges, we propose IPAD (Inverse Prompt for AI Detection), a novel framework consisting of a Prompt Inverter that identifies predicted prompts that could have generated the input text, and two Distinguishers that examine the probability that the input texts align with the predicted prompts. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that IPAD outperforms the strongest baselines by 9.05% (Average Recall) on in-distribution data, 12.93% (AUROC) on out-of-distribution (OOD) data, and 5.48% (AUROC) on attacked data. IPAD also performs robust on structured datasets. Furthermore, an interpretability assessment is conducted to illustrate that IPAD enhances the AI detection trustworthiness by allowing users to directly examine the decision-making evidence, which provides interpretable support for its state-of-the-art detection results.
Conformal Risk Prediction for Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Using Gradient Boosting with Distribution-Free Coverages
Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects roughly 25% of global adults, posing substantial hepatic and cardiovascular risks. Yet, population-level screening tools remain inadequate. We present Method, a machine-learning framework for NAFLD risk prediction coupling gradient-boosted decision trees with conformal prediction to yield calibrated, distribution-free coverage guarantees on individual risk estimates. It integrates a mutual-information-based stability selection procedure to identify a compact, clinically interpretable feature subset via bootstrap resampling, constructing prediction sets whose marginal coverage provably exceeds a user-specified confidence level. We evaluated Method on a multicenter cohort from Guangzhou, China (primary n=2,187; external validation n=412) using 78 candidate features across demographics, metabolic biomarkers, and lifestyle factors. Method achieves an AUROC of 0.912 internally and 0.891 externally, outperforming deep neural networks, TabNet, support vector machines, and logistic regression. Conformal prediction sets achieve 91.3% empirical coverage at the 90% nominal level. A three-tier risk stratification derived from these scores separates the population into distinct groups, with the high-risk subgroup showing a 12-month progression rate 4.7 times that of the low-risk tier. The selected features -- notably waist circumference, ALT, GGT, triglycerides, fasting glucose, and BMI -- align with established metabolic risk factors, providing biological plausibility.
Tippett-minimum Fusion of Representation-space Diffusion Models for Multi-Encoder Out-of-Distribution Detection
We address out-of-distribution (OOD) detection across the full spectrum of distribution shifts -- global domain changes, semantic divergence, texture differences, and covariate corruptions -- through a multi-encoder fusion of per-encoder representation-space diffusion models (RDMs). We statistically identify each encoder's sensitivity to specific shift types from ID data alone and introduce EncMin2L -- an encoder-agnostic two-level $\min(\cdot)$-gate that combines and calibrates per-encoder diffusion-based likelihood detectors without OOD labels, outperforming monolithic multi-encoder baselines at $2.3\times$ lower parameter cost. Two ID-data diagnostics: $η^2$ (class-conditional F-test) and $Δμ$ (log-likelihood shift under synthetic corruptions) -- quantify encoder specialization, while a Tippett minimum $p$-value combination aggregates per-encoder scores into a single, calibration-stable OOD signal. EncMin2L achieves $\geq 0.94$ AUROC across all four shift types simultaneously, outperforming the state-of-the-art representation-space diffusion OOD detectors across overlapping benchmarks.