auroc
Tippett-minimum Fusion of Representation-space Diffusion Models for Multi-Encoder Out-of-Distribution Detection
We address out-of-distribution (OOD) detection across the full spectrum of distribution shifts -- global domain changes, semantic divergence, texture differences, and covariate corruptions -- through a multi-encoder fusion of per-encoder representation-space diffusion models (RDMs). We statistically identify each encoder's sensitivity to specific shift types from ID data alone and introduce EncMin2L -- an encoder-agnostic two-level $\min(\cdot)$-gate that combines and calibrates per-encoder diffusion-based likelihood detectors without OOD labels, outperforming monolithic multi-encoder baselines at $2.3\times$ lower parameter cost. Two ID-data diagnostics: $η^2$ (class-conditional F-test) and $Δμ$ (log-likelihood shift under synthetic corruptions) -- quantify encoder specialization, while a Tippett minimum $p$-value combination aggregates per-encoder scores into a single, calibration-stable OOD signal. EncMin2L achieves $\geq 0.94$ AUROC across all four shift types simultaneously, outperforming the state-of-the-art representation-space diffusion OOD detectors across overlapping benchmarks.
PRCD-MAP: Learning How Much to Trust Imperfect Priors in Causal Discovery
External priors of unknown reliability create a brittle trade-off in causal discovery: blind trust amplifies errors, blind rejection wastes signal. Real priors are also heterogeneously reliable -- physical laws are trustworthy, LLM-suggested edges are speculative -- yet existing methods either ignore priors or impose them through globally uniform trust. We propose PRCD-MAP, a soft prior-consumption layer that assigns per-edge trust to an imperfect prior and uses it to modulate a prior-aware $\ell_1$ and prior-weighted $\ell_2$ regularizer in a MAP objective. Trust is calibrated by empirical Bayes on a Laplace-approximated marginal likelihood and propagated along the prior graph by an MLP, so data-confirmed neighborhoods boost trust and contradictions suppress it. PRCD-MAP enjoys a population-level safety guarantee: it is $\varepsilon$-safe in expectation over the prior-generation distribution, with $\varepsilon\leq C\cdot\mathrm{acc}(1{-}\mathrm{acc})\cdot d^2/T$ at the parametric $T^{-1}$ rate and vanishing at the prior-quality endpoints. When the prior is uninformative, learned trust provably collapses to its floor and the method recovers a no-prior baseline. Empirically, on real CausalTime data PRCD-MAP exploits informative LLM priors (LLM-prior gain $+0.067/+0.089$ AUROC on AQI/Medical over a no-prior PRCD-MAP backbone; combined backbone+prior lead $+0.123/+0.043$ over PCMCI+), auto-attenuates on the anonymous-variable Traffic stress test, and retains a lead at $d{=}300$; against BayesDAG, the closest soft-Bayesian baseline, PRCD-MAP wins on every CausalTime dataset under a matched $W_0$-only protocol. A four-way ablation isolates each component: EB calibration and MLP trust propagation jointly carry the plurality of the gain, with positive sign on every dataset. Extensions to nonlinear (NAM) and cross-sectional settings show the calibrated-trust principle is setting-agnostic.
Near_OOD_with_pre_training (1).pdf
Near out-of-distribution detection (OOD) is a major challenge for deep neural networks. We demonstrate that large-scale pre-trained transformers can significantly improve the state-of-the-art (SOTA) on a range of near OOD tasks across different data modalities. For instance, on CIFAR-100 vs CIFAR-10 OOD detection, we improve the AUROC from 85% (current SOTA) to 96% using Vision Transformers pre-trained on ImageNet-21k. On a challenging genomics OOD detection benchmark, we improve the AUROC from 66% to 77% using transformers and unsupervised pre-training. To further improve performance, we explore the few-shot outlier exposure setting where a few examples from outlier classes may be available; we show that pre-trained transformers are particularly well-suited for outlier exposure, and that the AUROC of OOD detection on CIFAR-100 vs CIFAR10 can be improved to 98.7% with just 1 image per OOD class, and 99.46% with 10 images per OOD class. For multi-modal image-text pre-trained transformers such as CLIP, we explore a new way of using just the names of outlier classes as a sole source of information without any accompanying images, and show that this outperforms previous SOTA on standard vision OOD benchmark tasks.