We propose an Autoregressive (AR) Moving-average (MA) attention structure that can adapt to various linear attention mechanisms, enhancing their ability to capture long-range and local temporal patterns in time series. In this paper, we first demonstrate that, for the time series forecasting (TSF) task, the previously overlooked decoder-only autoregressive Transformer model can achieve results comparable to the best baselines when appropriate tokenization and training methods are applied. Moreover, inspired by the ARMA model from statistics and recent advances in linear attention, we introduce the full ARMA structure into existing autoregressive attention mechanisms. By using an indirect MA weight generation method, we incorporate the MA term while maintaining the time complexity and parameter size of the underlying efficient attention models. We further explore how indirect parameter generation can produce implicit MA weights that align with the modeling requirements for local temporal impacts. Experimental results show that incorporating the ARMA structure consistently improves the performance of various AR attentions on TSF tasks, achieving state-of-the-art results.

Large language models (LLMs) have gained increasing attention due to their prominent ability to understand and process texts. Nevertheless, LLMs largely remain opaque. The lack of understanding of LLMs has obstructed the deployment in safety-critical scenarios and hindered the development of better models. In this study, we advance the understanding of LLM by investigating the significance of individual layers in LLMs. We propose an efficient sampling method to faithfully evaluate the importance of layers using Shapley values, a widely used explanation framework in feature attribution and data valuation. In addition, we conduct layer ablation experiments to assess the performance degradation resulting from the exclusion of specific layers. Our findings reveal the existence of cornerstone layers, wherein certain early layers can exhibit a dominant contribution over others. Removing one cornerstone layer leads to a drastic collapse of the model performance, often reducing it to random guessing. Conversely, removing non-cornerstone layers results in only marginal performance changes. This study identifies cornerstone layers in LLMs and underscores their critical role for future research.

Mechanistic interpretability work attempts to reverse engineer the learned algorithms present inside neural networks. One focus of this work has been to discover 'circuits' -- subgraphs of the full model that explain behaviour on specific tasks. But how do we measure the performance of such circuits? Prior work has attempted to measure circuit 'faithfulness' -- the degree to which the circuit replicates the performance of the full model. In this work, we survey many considerations for designing experiments that measure circuit faithfulness by ablating portions of the model's computation. Concerningly, we find existing methods are highly sensitive to seemingly insignificant changes in the ablation methodology. We conclude that existing circuit faithfulness scores reflect both the methodological choices of researchers as well as the actual components of the circuit - the task a circuit is required to perform depends on the ablation used to test it. The ultimate goal of mechanistic interpretability work is to understand neural networks, so we emphasize the need for more clarity in the precise claims being made about circuits. We open source a library at https://github.com/UFO-101/auto-circuit that includes highly efficient implementations of a wide range of ablation methodologies and circuit discovery algorithms.

With the rapid adoption of Federated Learning (FL) as the training and tuning protocol for applications utilizing Large Language Models (LLMs), recent research highlights the need for significant modifications to FL to accommodate the large-scale of LLMs. While substantial adjustments to the protocol have been introduced as a response, comprehensive privacy analysis for the adapted FL protocol is currently lacking. To address this gap, our work delves into an extensive examination of the privacy analysis of FL when used for training LLMs, both from theoretical and practical perspectives. In particular, we design two active membership inference attacks with guaranteed theoretical success rates to assess the privacy leakages of various adapted FL configurations. Our theoretical findings are translated into practical attacks, revealing substantial privacy vulnerabilities in popular LLMs, including BERT, RoBERTa, DistilBERT, and OpenAI's GPTs, across multiple real-world language datasets. Additionally, we conduct thorough experiments to evaluate the privacy leakage of these models when data is protected by state-of-the-art differential privacy (DP) mechanisms.

Averaging neural network parameters is an intuitive method for fusing the knowledge of two independent models. It is most prominently used in federated learning. If models are averaged at the end of training, this can only lead to a good performing model if the loss surface of interest is very particular, i.e., the loss in the midpoint between the two models needs to be sufficiently low. This is impossible to guarantee for the non-convex losses of state-of-the-art networks. For averaging models trained on vastly different datasets, it was proposed to average only the parameters of particular layers or combinations of layers, resulting in better performing models. To get a better understanding of the effect of layer-wise averaging, we analyse the performance of the models that result from averaging single layers, or groups of layers. Based on our empirical and theoretical investigation, we introduce a novel notion of the layer-wise linear connectivity, and show that deep networks do not have layer-wise barriers between them. In addition, we analyze layer-wise personalization averaging and conjecture that in particular problem setup all partial aggregations result in the approximately same performance. One of the multiple applications for such on Y-axis developed throughout training insights is, for example, knowledge fusion performed in a epochs on X-axis. First row shows the more efficient way than straightforward model ensembles.

Dialogue level quality estimation is vital for optimizing data driven dialogue management. Current automated methods to estimate turn and dialogue level user satisfaction employ hand-crafted features and rely on complex annotation schemes, which reduce the generalizability of the trained models. We propose a novel user satisfaction estimation approach which minimizes an adaptive multi-task loss function in order to jointly predict turn-level Response Quality labels provided by experts and explicit dialogue-level ratings provided by end users. The proposed BiLSTM based deep neural net model automatically weighs each turn's contribution towards the estimated dialogue-level rating, implicitly encodes temporal dependencies, and removes the need to hand-craft features. On dialogues sampled from 28 Alexa domains, two dialogue systems and three user groups, the joint dialogue-level satisfaction estimation model achieved up to an absolute 27% (0.43->0.70) and 7% (0.63->0.70) improvement in linear correlation performance over baseline deep neural net and benchmark Gradient boosting regression models, respectively.