Accurately estimating treatment effects in time series is essential for evaluating interventions in real-world applications, especially when treatment assignment is biased by unobserved factors. In many practical settings, interventions are adopted at different times across individuals, leading to staggered treatment exposure and heterogeneous pre-treatment histories. In such cases, aggregating outcome trajectories across treated units is ill-defined, making individual treatment effect (ITE) estimation a prerequisite for reliable causal inference. We therefore study the problem of estimating the average treatment effect for the treated (ATT) by first recovering individual-level counterfactuals. We introduce a neural framework that learns simultaneously low-dimensional latent representations of individual time series and propensity scores. These estimates are then used to approximate the individual treatment effects through a flexible matching procedure that avoids classical convexity constraints commonly used in synthetic control methods. By operating at the individual level, our approach naturally accommodates staggered interventions and improves counterfactual estimation under latent bias, without relying on explicit temporal modeling assumptions. We illustrate our approach on both real-world energy consumption data and clinical time series, including high-frequency electricity demand-response programs and semi-synthetic data for individuals in intensive care unit (ICU), where hidden confounding, staggered treatment adoption, and non-stationary dynamics are prevalent.

Weight decay is a standard regularization technique for training large language models (LLMs). While it is common to assign a uniform decay rate to every layer, this approach overlooks the structural diversity of LLMs and the varying spectral properties across modules. In this paper, we introduce AlphaDecay, a simple yet effective method that adaptively assigns different weight decay strengths to each module of an LLM. Our approach is guided by Heavy-Tailed Self-Regularization (HT-SR) theory, which analyzes the empirical spectral density (ESD) of weight correlation matrices to quantify "heavy-tailedness." Modules exhibiting more pronounced heavy-tailed ESDs, reflecting stronger feature learning, are assigned weaker decay, while modules with lighter-tailed spectra receive stronger decay. Our method leverages tailored weight decay assignments to balance the module-wise differences in spectral properties, leading to improved performance. Extensive pre-training tasks with various model sizes from 60M to 1B demonstrate that AlphaDecay achieves better perplexity and generalization than conventional uniform decay and other adaptive decay baselines.

Finally, we provide mathematical bounds on the interference between superposition channels in MIMOFormer.

Obtaining reliable inferences with traditional difference-in-differences (DiD) methods can be difficult. Problems can arise when both outcomes and errors are serially correlated, when there are few clusters or few treated clusters, when cluster sizes vary greatly, and in various other cases. In recent years, recognition of the ``staggered adoption'' problem has shifted the focus away from inference towards consistent estimation of treatment effects. One of the most popular new estimators is the CSDID procedure of Callaway and Sant'Anna (2021). We find that the issues of over-rejection with few clusters and/or few treated clusters are at least as severe for CSDID as for traditional DiD methods. We also propose using a cluster jackknife for inference with CSDID, which simulations suggest greatly improves inference. We provide software packages in Stata csdidjack and R didjack to calculate cluster-jackknife standard errors easily.

We propose ResidualPlanner, a matrix mechanism for marginals with Gaussian noise that is both optimal and scalable.

Since the switching costs introduce coupling across all stages, multi-step-ahead (long-term) predictions areincorporated toimprovethe online performance.

For example, theleader aims tooptimize some traffic-networkparameters (e.g., road width values) so that players can spend less traveling time at equilibrium.

Spectral gradient methods, such as the recently popularized Muon optimizer, are a promising alternative to standard Euclidean gradient descent for training deep neural networks and transformers, but it is still unclear in which regimes they are expected to perform better. We propose a simple layerwise condition that predicts when a spectral update yields a larger decrease in the loss than a Euclidean gradient step. This condition compares, for each parameter block, the squared nuclear-to-Frobenius ratio of the gradient to the stable rank of the incoming activations. To understand when this condition may be satisfied, we first prove that post-activation matrices have low stable rank at Gaussian initialization in random feature regression, feedforward networks, and transformer blocks. In spiked random feature models we then show that, after a short burn-in, the Euclidean gradient's nuclear-to-Frobenius ratio grows with the data dimension while the stable rank of the activations remains bounded, so the predicted advantage of spectral updates scales with dimension. We validate these predictions in synthetic regression experiments and in NanoGPT-scale language model training, where we find that intermediate activations have low-stable-rank throughout training and the corresponding gradients maintain large nuclear-to-Frobenius ratios. Together, these results identify conditions for spectral gradient methods, such as Muon, to be effective in training deep networks and transformers.