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 asu-dnn


An economically-consistent discrete choice model with flexible utility specification based on artificial neural networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Random utility maximisation (RUM) models are one of the cornerstones of discrete choice modelling. However, specifying the utility function of RUM models is not straightforward and has a considerable impact on the resulting interpretable outcomes and welfare measures. In this paper, we propose a new discrete choice model based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) named "Alternative-Specific and Shared weights Neural Network (ASS-NN)", which provides a further balance between flexible utility approximation from the data and consistency with two assumptions: RUM theory and fungibility of money (i.e., "one euro is one euro"). Therefore, the ASS-NN can derive economically-consistent outcomes, such as marginal utilities or willingness to pay, without explicitly specifying the utility functional form. Using a Monte Carlo experiment and empirical data from the Swissmetro dataset, we show that ASS-NN outperforms (in terms of goodness of fit) conventional multinomial logit (MNL) models under different utility specifications. Furthermore, we show how the ASS-NN is used to derive marginal utilities and willingness to pay measures.


Discrete-Choice Model with Generalized Additive Utility Network

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Discrete-choice models are a powerful framework for analyzing decision-making behavior to provide valuable insights for policymakers and businesses. Multinomial logit models (MNLs) with linear utility functions have been used in practice because they are ease to use and interpretable. Recently, MNLs with neural networks (e.g., ASU-DNN) have been developed, and they have achieved higher prediction accuracy in behavior choice than classical MNLs. However, these models lack interpretability owing to complex structures. We developed utility functions with a novel neural-network architecture based on generalized additive models, named generalized additive utility network ( GAUNet), for discrete-choice models. We evaluated the performance of the MNL with GAUNet using the trip survey data collected in Tokyo. Our models were comparable to ASU-DNN in accuracy and exhibited improved interpretability compared to previous models.


Deep Neural Networks for Choice Analysis: Architectural Design with Alternative-Specific Utility Functions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Whereas deep neural network (DNN) is increasingly applied to choice analysis, it is challenging to reconcile domain-specific behavioral knowledge with generic-purpose DNN, to improve DNN's interpretability and predictive power, and to identify effective regularization methods for specific tasks. This study designs a particular DNN architecture with alternative-specific utility functions (ASU-DNN) by using prior behavioral knowledge. Unlike a fully connected DNN (F-DNN), which computes the utility value of an alternative k by using the attributes of all the alternatives, ASU-DNN computes it by using only k's own attributes. Theoretically, ASU-DNN can dramatically reduce the estimation error of F-DNN because of its lighter architecture and sparser connectivity. Empirically, ASU-DNN has 2-3% higher prediction accuracy than F-DNN over the whole hyperparameter space in a private dataset that we collected in Singapore and a public dataset in R mlogit package. The alternative-specific connectivity constraint, as a domain-knowledge-based regularization method, is more effective than the most popular generic-purpose explicit and implicit regularization methods and architectural hyperparameters. ASU-DNN is also more interpretable because it provides a more regular substitution pattern of travel mode choices than F-DNN does. The comparison between ASU-DNN and F-DNN can also aid in testing the behavioral knowledge. Our results reveal that individuals are more likely to compute utility by using an alternative's own attributes, supporting the long-standing practice in choice modeling. Overall, this study demonstrates that prior behavioral knowledge could be used to guide the architecture design of DNN, to function as an effective domain-knowledge-based regularization method, and to improve both the interpretability and predictive power of DNN in choice analysis.