Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is an inference algorithm for state space models that approximates the posterior by sampling from a sequence of target distributions. The target distributions are often chosen to be the filtering distributions, but these ignore information from future observations, leading to practical and theoretical limitations in inference and model learning. We introduce SIXO, a method that instead learns target distributions that approximate the smoothing distributions, incorporating information from all observations. The key idea is to use density ratio estimation to fit functions that warp the filtering distributions into the smoothing distributions. We then use SMC with these learned targets to define a variational objective for model and proposal learning. SIXO yields provably tighter log marginal lower bounds and offers more accurate posterior inferences and parameter estimates in a variety of domains.

Various theoretical results provideupper bounds onthedistance between the target and marginal distribution after a fixed number of iterations.

Inference-time control of diffusion models aims to steer model outputs to satisfy new constraints without retraining. Previous approaches have mostly relied on heuristic guidance or have been coupled with Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for bias correction. In this paper, we propose a flexible alternative based on replica exchange, an algorithm designed initially for sampling problems. We refer to this method as the CREPE (Controlling with REPlica Exchange). Unlike SMC, CREPE: (1) generates particles sequentially, (2) maintains high diversity in the generated samples after a burn-in period, and (3) enables online refinement or early termination. We demonstrate its versatility across various tasks, including temperature annealing, reward-tilting, model composition and classifier-free guidance debiasing, with competitive performance compared to prior SMC methods.

In this work, we study the problem of choosing the discretisation schedule for sampling from masked discrete diffusion models in terms of the information geometry of the induced probability path. Specifically, we show that the optimal schedule under the Fisher-Rao geometry recovers the popularly-used cosine schedule.

Stochastic optimal control of dynamical systems is a crucial challenge in sequential decision-making. Recently, control-as-inference approaches have had considerable success, providing a viable risk-sensitive framework to address the exploration-exploitation dilemma. Nonetheless, a majority of these techniques only invoke the inference-control duality to derive a modified risk objective that is then addressed within a reinforcement learning framework. This paper introduces a novel perspective by framing risk-sensitive stochastic control as Markovian score climbing under samples drawn from a conditional particle filter. Our approach, while purely inference-centric, provides asymptotically unbiased estimates for gradient-based policy optimization with optimal importance weighting and no explicit value function learning. To validate our methodology, we apply it to the task of learning neural non-Gaussian feedback policies, showcasing its efficacy on numerical benchmarks of stochastic dynamical systems.

Connecting optimal transport and variational inference, we present a principled and systematic framework for sampling and generative modelling centred around divergences on path space. Our work culminates in the development of the \emph{Controlled Monte Carlo Diffusion} sampler (CMCD) for Bayesian computation, a score-based annealing technique that crucially adapts both forward and backward dynamics in a diffusion model. On the way, we clarify the relationship between the EM-algorithm and iterative proportional fitting (IPF) for Schr{\"o}dinger bridges, deriving as well a regularised objective that bypasses the iterative bottleneck of standard IPF-updates. Finally, we show that CMCD has a strong foundation in the Jarzinsky and Crooks identities from statistical physics, and that it convincingly outperforms competing approaches across a wide array of experiments.

The recently proposed Differentiable AIS (DAIS) (Geffner & Domke, 2021; Zhang et al., 2021) enables efficient optimization of the transition kernels of AIS and of the distributions. However, we observe a low effective sample size in DAIS, indicating degenerate distributions. We thus propose to extend DAIS by a resampling step inspired by Sequential Monte Carlo. Surprisingly, we find empirically--and can explain theoretically--that it is not necessary to differentiate through the resampling step, which avoids gradient variance issues observed in similar approaches for Particle Filters (Maddison et al., 2017a; Naesseth et al., 2018; Le et al., 2018). Figure 1: ESS for DAIS and Related Work Differentiable PFs construct a lower bound on the DSMCS at epochs 100 and log marginal likelihood utilizing the filtering distribution (e.g.

We propose Continual Repeated Annealed Flow Transport Monte Carlo (CRAFT), a method that combines a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler (itself a generalization of Annealed Importance Sampling) with variational inference using normalizing flows. The normalizing flows are directly trained to transport between annealing temperatures using a KL divergence for each transition. This optimization objective is itself estimated using the normalizing flow/SMC approximation. We show conceptually and using multiple empirical examples that CRAFT improves on Annealed Flow Transport Monte Carlo (Arbel et al., 2021), on which it builds and also on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based Stochastic Normalizing Flows (Wu et al., 2020). By incorporating CRAFT within particle MCMC, we show that such learnt samplers can achieve impressively accurate results on a challenging lattice field theory example.