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Probabilistic Logic Programming with Beta-Distributed Random Variables

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We enable aProbLog---a probabilistic logical programming approach---to reason in presence of uncertain probabilities represented as Beta-distributed random variables. We achieve the same performance of state-of-the-art algorithms for highly specified and engineered domains, while simultaneously we maintain the flexibility offered by aProbLog in handling complex relational domains. Our motivation is that faithfully capturing the distribution of probabilities is necessary to compute an expected utility for effective decision making under uncertainty: unfortunately, these probability distributions can be highly uncertain due to sparse data. To understand and accurately manipulate such probability distributions we need a well-defined theoretical framework that is provided by the Beta distribution, which specifies a distribution of probabilities representing all the possible values of a probability when the exact value is unknown.


An Algebraic Prolog for Reasoning about Possible Worlds

AAAI Conferences

We introduce aProbLog, a generalization of the probabilistic logic programming language ProbLog. An aProbLog program consists of a set of definite clauses and a set of algebraic facts; each such fact is labeled with an element of a semiring. A wide variety of labels is possible, ranging from probability values to reals (representing costs or utilities), polynomials, Boolean functions or data structures. The semiring is then used to calculate labels of possible worlds and of queries. We formally define the semantics of aProbLog and study the aProbLog inference problem, which is concerned with computing the label of a query. Two conditions are introduced that allow one to simplify the inference problem, resulting in four different algorithms and settings. Representative basic problems for each of these four settings are: is there a possible world where a query is true (SAT), how many such possible worlds are there (#SAT), what is the probability of a query being true (PROB), and what is the most likely world where the query is true (MPE). We further illustrate these settings with a number of tasks requiring more complex semirings.