Models for categorical sequences typically assume exchangeable or first-order dependent sequence elements. These are common assumptions, for example, in models of computer malware traces and protein sequences. Although such simplifying assumptions lead to computational tractability, these models fail to capture long-range, complex dependence structures that may be harnessed for greater predictive power. To this end, a Bayesian modelling framework is proposed to parsimoniously capture rich dependence structures in categorical sequences, with memory efficiency suitable for real-time processing of data streams. Parsimonious Bayesian context trees are introduced as a form of variable-order Markov model with conjugate prior distributions. The novel framework requires fewer parameters than fixed-order Markov models by dropping redundant dependencies and clustering sequential contexts. Approximate inference on the context tree structure is performed via a computationally efficient model-based agglomerative clustering procedure. The proposed framework is tested on synthetic and real-world data examples, and it outperforms existing sequence models when fitted to real protein sequences and honeypot computer terminal sessions.

Bandit problems are a class of decision problems in which an agent interacts sequentially with an unknown environment by choosing actions and earning rewards in return. The goal of the agent is to maximize its expected cumulative reward, which is the expected sum of rewards that it will earn throughout its interaction with the environment. This necessitates a delicate balance between the exploration of different actions to gather information for potential future rewards, and the exploitation of known actions to receive immediate gains. The theoretical study of the performance of an algorithm in a bandit problem is done by analyzing the expected regret, which is defined as the difference between the cumulative reward of the algorithm and the hypothetical cumulative reward that an oracle would obtain by choosing the optimal action at each time step. An effective method for achieving small regret is the Thomson Sampling (TS) algorithm [3], which, despite its simplicity, has shown remarkable performance [4, 5, 6]. Studying the Thomspon Sampling regret, [1] introduced the concept of information ratio, a statistic that captures the trade-off between the information gained by the algorithm about the environment and the immediate regret.

Inference is a key component in learning probabilistic models from par(cid:173) tially observable data. When learning temporal models, each of the many inference phases requires a traversal over an entire long data se(cid:173) quence; furthermore, the data structures manipulated are exponentially large, making this process computationally expensive. In [2], we describe an approximate inference algorithm for monitoring stochastic processes, and prove bounds on its approximation error. In this paper, we apply this algorithm as an approximate forward propagation step in an EM algorithm for learning temporal Bayesian networks. We provide a related approxi(cid:173) mation for the backward step, and prove error bounds for the combined algorithm.

In this paper we extend the work of Smith and Papamichail (1999) and present fast approximate Bayesian algorithms for learning in complex scenarios where at any time frame, the relationships between explanatory state space variables can be described by a Bayesian network that evolve dynamically over time and the observations taken are not necessarily Gaussian. It uses recent developments in approximate Bayesian forecasting methods in combination with more familiar Gaussian propagation algorithms on junction trees. The procedure for learning state parameters from data is given explicitly for common sampling distributions and the methodology is illustrated through a real application. The efficiency of the dynamic approximation is explored by using the Hellinger divergence measure and theoretical bounds for the efficacy of such a procedure are discussed.

We introduce a method to learn a mixture of submodular "shells" in a large-margin setting. A submodular shell is an abstract submodular function that can be instantiated with a ground set and a set of parameters to produce a submodular function. A mixture of such shells can then also be so instantiated to produce a more complex submodular function. What our algorithm learns are the mixture weights over such shells. We provide a risk bound guarantee when learning in a large-margin structured-prediction setting using a projected subgradient method when only approximate submodular optimization is possible (such as with submodular function maximization). We apply this method to the problem of multi-document summarization and produce the best results reported so far on the widely used NIST DUC-05 through DUC-07 document summarization corpora.

Inference is a key component in learning probabilistic models from partially observable data. When learning temporal models, each of the many inference phases requires a traversal over an entire long data sequence; furthermore, the data structures manipulated are exponentially large, making this process computationally expensive. In [2], we describe an approximate inference algorithm for monitoring stochastic processes, and prove bounds on its approximation error. In this paper, we apply this algorithm as an approximate forward propagation step in an EM algorithm for learning temporal Bayesian networks. We provide a related approximation for the backward step, and prove error bounds for the combined algorithm.

Inference is a key component in learning probabilistic models from partially observable data. When learning temporal models, each of the many inference phases requires a traversal over an entire long data sequence; furthermore, the data structures manipulated are exponentially large, making this process computationally expensive. In [2], we describe an approximate inference algorithm for monitoring stochastic processes, and prove bounds on its approximation error. In this paper, we apply this algorithm as an approximate forward propagation step in an EM algorithm for learning temporal Bayesian networks. We provide a related approximation for the backward step, and prove error bounds for the combined algorithm.

Inference is a key component in learning probabilistic models from partially observabledata. When learning temporal models, each of the many inference phases requires a traversal over an entire long data sequence; furthermore,the data structures manipulated are exponentially large, making this process computationally expensive. In [2], we describe an approximate inference algorithm for monitoring stochastic processes, and prove bounds on its approximation error. In this paper, we apply this algorithm as an approximate forward propagation step in an EM algorithm for learning temporal Bayesian networks. We provide a related approximation forthe backward step, and prove error bounds for the combined algorithm.