antifragility
Curriculum-Guided Antifragile Reinforcement Learning for Secure UAV Deconfliction under Observation-Space Attacks
Panda, Deepak Kumar, Perrusquia, Adolfo, Guo, Weisi
--Reinforcement learning (RL) policies deployed in safety-critical systems, such as unmanned aerial vehicle (UA V) navigation in dynamic airspace, are vulnerable to out-of-distribution (OOD) adversarial attacks in the observation space. These attacks induce distributional shifts that significantly degrade value estimation, leading to unsafe or suboptimal decision-making rendering the existing policy fragile. T o address this vulnerability, we propose an antifragile RL framework designed to adapt against curriculum of incremental adversarial perturbations. The framework introduces a simulated attacker which incrementally increases the strength of observation-space perturbations which enables the RL agent to adapt and generalize across a wider range of OOD observations and anticipate previously unseen attacks. We begin with a theoretical characterization of fragility, formally defining catastrophic forgetting as a monotonic divergence in value function distributions with increasing perturbation strength. Building on this, we define antifragility as the boundedness of such value shifts and derive adaptation conditions under which forgetting is stabilized. Our method enforces these bounds through iterative expert-guided critic alignment using Wasserstein distance minimization across incrementally perturbed observations. We empirically evaluate the approach in a UA V deconfliction scenario involving dynamic 3D obstacles. Results show that the antifragile policy consistently outperforms standard and robust RL baselines when subjected to both projected gradient descent (PGD) and GPS spoofing attacks, achieving up to 15% higher cumulative reward and over 30% fewer conflict events. These findings demonstrate the practical and theoretical viability of antifragile reinforcement learning for secure and resilient decision-making in environments with evolving threat scenarios. Fragility, robustness, and antifragility represent a continuum of system responses to stress or external perturbations [1, 2].
Preparing for Black Swans: The Antifragility Imperative for Machine Learning
Operating safely and reliably despite continual distribution shifts is vital for high-stakes machine learning applications. This paper builds upon the transformative concept of ``antifragility'' introduced by (Taleb, 2014) as a constructive design paradigm to not just withstand but benefit from volatility. We formally define antifragility in the context of online decision making as dynamic regret's strictly concave response to environmental variability, revealing limitations of current approaches focused on resisting rather than benefiting from nonstationarity. Our contribution lies in proposing potential computational pathways for engineering antifragility, grounding the concept in online learning theory and drawing connections to recent advancements in areas such as meta-learning, safe exploration, continual learning, multi-objective/quality-diversity optimization, and foundation models. By identifying promising mechanisms and future research directions, we aim to put antifragility on a rigorous theoretical foundation in machine learning. We further emphasize the need for clear guidelines, risk assessment frameworks, and interdisciplinary collaboration to ensure responsible application.
Fragility, Robustness and Antifragility in Deep Learning
Pravin, Chandresh, Martino, Ivan, Nicosia, Giuseppe, Ojha, Varun
We propose a systematic analysis of deep neural networks (DNNs) based on a signal processing technique for network parameter removal, in the form of synaptic filters that identifies the fragility, robustness and antifragility characteristics of DNN parameters. Our proposed analysis investigates if the DNN performance is impacted negatively, invariantly, or positively on both clean and adversarially perturbed test datasets when the DNN undergoes synaptic filtering. We define three \textit{filtering scores} for quantifying the fragility, robustness and antifragility characteristics of DNN parameters based on the performances for (i) clean dataset, (ii) adversarial dataset, and (iii) the difference in performances of clean and adversarial datasets. We validate the proposed systematic analysis on ResNet-18, ResNet-50, SqueezeNet-v1.1 and ShuffleNet V2 x1.0 network architectures for MNIST, CIFAR10 and Tiny ImageNet datasets. The filtering scores, for a given network architecture, identify network parameters that are invariant in characteristics across different datasets over learning epochs. Vice-versa, for a given dataset, the filtering scores identify the parameters that are invariant in characteristics across different network architectures. We show that our synaptic filtering method improves the test accuracy of ResNet and ShuffleNet models on adversarial datasets when only the robust and antifragile parameters are selectively retrained at any given epoch, thus demonstrating applications of the proposed strategy in improving model robustness.
Optimizing Machines Is Perilous. Consider 'Creatively Adequate' AI.
The breaking ensues whenever AI encounters ambiguity or volatility. And in our hazy, unstable world, that's all the time: Either the data can be interpreted another way or it's obsolesced by new events. At which point, AI finds itself looking at life through errant eyes, seeing left as right or now as yesterday. Yet because AI lacks self-awareness, it doesn't realize that its worldview has cracked. So, on it whirs, unwittingly transmitting the fracture to all the things plugged into it.
Agile, Antifragile, Artificial-Intelligence-Enabled, Command and Control
Simpson, Jacob, Oosthuizen, Rudolph, Sawah, Sondoss El, Abbass, Hussein
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly becoming integrated into military Command and Control (C2) systems as a strategic priority for many defence forces. The successful implementation of AI is promising to herald a significant leap in C2 agility through automation. However, realistic expectations need to be set on what AI can achieve in the foreseeable future. This paper will argue that AI could lead to a fragility trap, whereby the delegation of C2 functions to an AI could increase the fragility of C2, resulting in catastrophic strategic failures. This calls for a new framework for AI in C2 to avoid this trap. We will argue that antifragility along with agility should form the core design principles for AI-enabled C2 systems. This duality is termed Agile, Antifragile, AI-Enabled Command and Control (A3IC2). An A3IC2 system continuously improves its capacity to perform in the face of shocks and surprises through overcompensation from feedback during the C2 decision-making cycle. An A3IC2 system will not only be able to survive within a complex operational environment, it will also thrive, benefiting from the inevitable shocks and volatility of war.
Antifragility Predicts the Robustness and Evolvability of Biological Networks through Multi-class Classification with a Convolutional Neural Network
Kim, Hyobin, Muñoz, Stalin, Osuna, Pamela, Gershenson, Carlos
Robustness and evolvability are essential properties to the evolution of biological networks. To determine if a biological network is robust and/or evolvable, it is required to compare its functions before and after mutations. However, this sometimes takes a high computational cost as the network size grows. Here we develop a predictive method to estimate the robustness and evolvability of biological networks without an explicit comparison of functions. We measure antifragility in Boolean network models of biological systems and use this as the predictor. Antifragility occurs when a system benefits from external perturbations. By means of the differences of antifragility between the original and mutated biological networks, we train a convolutional neural network (CNN) and test it to classify the properties of robustness and evolvability. We found that our CNN model successfully classified the properties. Thus, we conclude that our antifragility measure can be used as a predictor of the robustness and evolvability of biological networks.