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Prediction-Powered Inference Across Many Tasks for AI Evaluation & Social Science Research

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many applications require statistically valid inference across many related "tasks", while using only a handful of high-quality labels per hypothesis. In AI evaluation, these tasks may correspond to model behaviors across prompts, subgroups, or hypotheses; in social science surveys, they may correspond to related questions, populations, or measurement conditions. Prediction-powered inference (PPI) uses abundant but inexpensive proxy measurements to improve inference from limited, "ground-truth" labels, but commonly used methods treat tasks independently and therefore fail to exploit shared structure across related tasks. This limitation is especially important in settings where only a small number of labels are available per task. To address this issue, we introduce a multi-task prediction-powered inference framework that uses labeled data from related tasks to improve power while preserving task-specific inference. Our methods exploit the shared structure in the proxy-ground-truth relationship through cross-task recalibration, while retaining within-task rectification and power tuning to construct accurate point estimates and confidence intervals. We prove that efficiency gains beyond power-tuned PPI are only possible when the proxy-ground-truth relationship contains nonlinear structure; affine cross-task recalibrations are asymptotically equivalent to using the original proxy. We complement our theoretical findings with experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets, as well as a case study auditing language models on election-related information during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Using a large human-annotation study, we show that cross-task recalibration can substantially reduce confidence interval widths when labels are scarce.


Text Knows What, Tables Know When: Clinical Timeline Reconstruction via Retrieval-Augmented Multimodal Alignment

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Reconstructing precise clinical timelines is essential for modeling patient trajectories and forecasting risk in complex, heterogeneous conditions like sepsis. While unstructured clinical narratives offer semantically rich and contextually complete descriptions of a patient's course, they often lack temporal precision and contain ambiguous event timing. Conversely, structured electronic health record (EHR) data provides precise temporal anchors but misses a substantial portion of clinically meaningful events. We introduce a retrieval-augmented multimodal alignment framework that bridges this gap to improve the temporal precision of absolute clinical timelines extracted from text. Our approach formulates timeline reconstruction as a graph-based multistep process: it first extracts central anchor events from narratives to build an initial temporal scaffold, places non-central events relative to this backbone, and then calibrates the timeline using retrieved structured EHR rows as external temporal evidence. Evaluated using instruction-tuned large language models on the i2m4 benchmark spanning MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV, our multimodal pipeline consistently improves absolute timestamp accuracy (AULTC) and improves temporal concordance across nearly all evaluated models over unimodal text-only reconstruction, without compromising event match rates. Furthermore, our empirical gap analysis reveals that 34.8% of text-derived events are entirely absent from tabular records, demonstrating that aligning these modalities can produce a more temporally faithful and clinically informative reconstruction of patient trajectories than either source alone.




5fc47800ee5b30b8777fdd30abcaaf3b-Supplemental-Conference.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

Having defined and validated the pairwise feedback simulator and evaluations in AlpacaFarm, we569 now turn our attention to studying methods that learn from pairwise feedback on AlpacaFarm.570 Unfortunately, the lack of existing benchmarks for learning from pairwise feedback for instruction571 following means that there has not been any open study of these methods in the instruction-following572 setting. In the remainder of this section, we will introduce our reference methods, which fall into two575 categories based on whether they fit a surrogate reward model as part of the learning process.576 FeedME is a method proposed by OpenAI [45] that incorporates human feedback578 with supervised fine-tuning on model generations that are rated 7/7 by human labelers. We adapt579 this approach to the pairwise feedback setting and call this baseline binary FeedME. This approach580 fine-tunes the SFT model on the chosen response in each preference pair with supervised learning.581 Motivated by controllable generation through conditioning [27, 34,582 29, 21], we propose binary reward conditioning, a baseline method that fine-tunes the SFT model583 with the feedback data Dpairwise by conditioning instances with either a positive or negative control584 token. Specifically, for each instance (x,y0,y1,z) 2D pairwise, the string concatenation of instruction585 x and response yz denoted as [x,yz] is prepended with the positive token and used in supervised586 fine-tuning (similarly [x,y1 z]is prepended with the negative token). This process creates a modified587 demonstration dataset that is double the size of Dpairwise. At test time, we draw samples from the588 fine-tuned model conditioned on the positive token.589 A.2 Methods that optimize a surrogate reward function590 We now describe methods that incorporate feedback by first building a surrogate reward model with591 pairwise feedback data. To start, we describe the step of training the surrogate reward model.592 While this can be a powerful approach,596 we will see that it can also lead to over-optimization [19] where models learn to exploit the reward597 model rather than achieve high true reward. We now describe 4 methods that leverage the surrogate598 reward model.599





StoryBench: AMultifaceted Benchmark for Continuous Story Visualization

Neural Information Processing Systems

Generating video stories from text prompts is a complex task. In addition to having high visual quality, videos need to realistically adhere to a sequence of text prompts whilst being consistent throughout the frames. Creating a benchmark for video generation requires data annotated over time, which contrasts with the single caption used often in video datasets. To fill this gap, we collect comprehensive human annotations on three existing datasets, and introduce StoryBench: a new, challenging multi-task benchmark to reliably evaluate forthcoming text-to-video models. Our benchmark includes three video generation tasks of increasing difficulty: action execution, where the next action must be generated starting from a conditioning video; story continuation, where a sequence of actions must be executed starting from a conditioning video; and story generation, where a video must be generated from only text prompts. We evaluate small yet strong text-to-video baselines, and show the benefits of training on story-like data algorithmically generated from existing video captions. Finally, we establish guidelines for human evaluation of video stories, and reaffirm the need of better automatic metrics for video generation. StoryBench aims at encouraging future research efforts in this exciting new area. Work completed during an internship at Google.