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On the Construction and Implications of Low-Loss Valleys in LoRA-based Bayesian Inference
Dold, Daniel, Sommer, Emanuel, Kobialka, Julius, Dürr, Oliver, Rügamer, David
While parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods like low-rank adaptation (LoRA) are standard for large language models, principled estimation of epistemic uncertainty remains challenging. Recent results in the LoRA regime suggest that discrete multi-mode approaches such as deep ensembles offer little benefit over single-mode methods. This contradicts broader observations in deep learning, where ensembling independent optima typically improves generalization, and linking these modes through continuous low-loss valleys further enhances Bayesian model averaging (BMA). Whether such structure exists in the LoRA space and whether it yields functional diversity missed by local or discrete methods has not been studied. We introduce LoRA-Curve, a segmented Bézier curve parameterization in the LoRA space, with two variants: a free configuration that jointly optimizes all control points, and an anchored configuration that connects independently fine-tuned LoRA optima. We prove pathwise continuity and Lipschitz regularity of the loss along the curve and empirically show, across reasoning and classification benchmarks with Qwen2.5 7B, that linear interpolation encounters loss barriers, while our anchored multi-segment curves connect independent optima through continuous low-loss valleys. Combined with flat-minima perturbations and a Jensen-Shannon divergence regularizer, LoRA-Curve yields measurably higher mutual information of the predictive distribution without sacrificing performance, and links continuous parameter-space traversal to functional diversity.
Learning to Extrapolate to New Tasks: A Relational Approach to Task Extrapolation
Ousherovitch, Adam, Wang, Yixin
Modern learning systems excel at interpolation but struggle to generalize to unseen tasks outside the training distribution's support. This failure occurs even in simple settings, such as handling task parameters beyond the training range, and persists despite advances in foundation models. To this end, we develop the Relational Task Extrapolator (RTE), an algorithm designed to enable systematic extrapolation to novel tasks. The key observation is that extrapolation is inherently relational: extrapolating to unseen tasks requires learning how tasks transform into one another. If a model learns the transformation between tasks A and B during training, it can apply that same transformation to relate known tasks to unseen ones at test time. RTE operationalizes this idea by decomposing each target task into a known anchor task and a transformation linking the anchor and target. It then learns a relational operator, mapping an anchor-transformation pair to predictions for the target task. We instantiate RTE across multiple task extrapolation regimes in function prediction, e.g. where target tasks use out-of-range parameters (parameter extrapolation), have greater compositional depth (length extrapolation), and/or recombine function primitives in unseen ways (compositional extrapolation). We further extend RTE to sequence prediction, integrating it into fine-tuning algorithms for foundation models. Across empirical studies, we find that RTE substantially outperforms existing approaches on extrapolation to novel, unseen tasks.
Forecasting Medium-Horizon Alzheimer's Disease Progression: Residual Gap-Aware Transformers for 24-Month CDR-SB Change from ADNI Clinical and Biomarker Histories
Tong, Ran, Wang, Tong, Wang, Lanruo, Ni, Yin
Medium-horizon Alzheimer's disease progression prediction is difficult because future clinical scores can remain tied to baseline severity, while biomarker histories are irregular and incompletely observed. We develop an anchor-based analysis of 24-month Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) change using harmonized Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) tables. Each labeled sample is anchored at a mild cognitive impairment visit, uses only clinical and biomarker history observed at or before that anchor, and defines the response as CDR-SB at the future visit closest to 24 months within an 18--30 month window minus anchor CDR-SB. The analytic cohort contains 2,600 labeled anchors from 858 participants and 7,276 longitudinal rows. We propose a residual gap-aware transformer that combines a mixed-effects statistical reference with transformer-based residual learning from pre-anchor clinical and biomarker histories. The model uses participant-level random intercepts in the mixed-effects reference, observation-level triplet tokenization for irregular histories, and a learned nonnegative time-gap penalty inside self-attention. We compare the proposed model with a Bayesian-information-criterion-selected linear mixed-effects baseline, GRU-D, and STraTS under repeated participant-level train--test splits. Across five participant-level random seeds, the proposed model achieves the best mean test performance across all reported metrics, reducing MSE by 13.1% and increasing prediction--observation correlation by 26.4% relative to the mixed-effects baseline. It also improves over both GRU-D and STraTS in mean error and correlation. These results show that statistical anchoring and gap-aware residual learning provide a useful structure for medium-horizon Alzheimer's disease progression prediction.
QDSB: Quantized Diffusion Schrödinger Bridges
Fuchs, Tobias, Kalinke, Florian, Klein, Nadja
Learning generative models in settings where the source and target distributions are only specified through unpaired samples is gaining in importance. Here, one frequently-used model are Schrödinger bridges (SB), which represent the most likely evolution between both endpoint distributions. To accelerate training, simulation-free SBs avoid the path simulation of the original SB models. However, learning simulation-free SBs requires paired data; a coupling of the source and target samples is obtained as the solution of the entropic optimal transport (OT) problem. As obtaining the optimal global coupling is infeasible in many practical cases, the entropic OT problem is iteratively solved on minibatches instead. Still, the repeated cost remains substantial and the locality can distort the global transport geometry. We propose quantized diffusion Schrödinger bridges (QDSB), which compute the endpoint coupling on anchor-quantized endpoint distributions and lift the resulting plan back to original data points through cell-wise sampling. We show that the regularized optimal coupling is stable w.r.t. anchor quantization, with an error controlled by the quality of the anchor approximation. In real-world experiments, QDSB matches the sample quality of existing baselines, requiring substantially less time. Code and data are available at github.com/mathefuchs/qdsb.
Random-Effects Algorithm for Random Objects in Metric Spaces
Matabuena, Marcos, Cámara, Mateo
Across many scientific disciplines, multiple observations are collected from the same experimental units, and in modern datasets these observations often arise as non-Euclidean random objects. In such settings, the incorporation of random effects is a critical modeling step for efficient estimation and personalized prediction. Although mixed-effects models are well established for scalar outcomes and, more recently, for functional data in Hilbert spaces, general random-effects frameworks for objects in metric spaces remain underdeveloped. In this paper, we propose a nonlinear Fréchet-based algorithm for random-effects modeling of arbitrary random objects defined on a metric space. Using M-estimation theory, we establish conditions under which the proposed metric-space prediction target is consistently estimated under a working random-effects formulation. We then evaluate the empirical performance of the proposed method using both synthetic data and digital health datasets that require practical tools for analyzing random objects in metric spaces, such as multivariate probability distributions and random graphs. We show that, although our method is developed beyond Hilbert spaces, it can outperform existing Hilbert space-based methods.
Align then Fusion: Generalized Large-scale Multi-view Clustering with Anchor Matching Correspondences
Multi-view anchor graph clustering selects representative anchors to avoid full pair-wise similarities and therefore reduce the complexity of graph methods. Although widely applied in large-scale applications, existing approaches do not pay sufficient attention to establishing correct correspondences between the anchor sets across views. To be specific, anchor graphs obtained from different views are not aligned column-wisely. Such an Anchor-Unaligned Problem (AUP) would cause inaccurate graph fusion and degrade the clustering performance. Under multi-view scenarios, generating correct correspondences could be extremely difficult since anchors are not consistent in feature dimensions.
Alleviate Anchor-Shift: Explore Blind Spots with Cross-View Reconstruction for Incomplete Multi-View Clustering
Incomplete multi-view clustering aims to learn complete correlations among samples by leveraging complementary information across multiple views for clustering. Anchor-based methods further establish sample-level similarities for representative anchor generation, effectively addressing scalability issues in large-scale scenarios. Despite efficiency improvements, existing methods overlook the misguidance in anchors learning induced by partial missing samples, i.e., the absence of samples results in shift of learned anchors, further leading to sub-optimal clustering performance. To conquer the challenges, our solution involves a cross-view reconstruction strategy that not only alleviate the anchor shift problem through a carefully designed cross-view learning process, but also reconstructs missing samples in a way that transcends the limitations imposed by convex combinations. By employing affine combinations, our method explores areas beyond the convex hull defined by anchors, thereby illuminating blind spots in the reconstruction of missing samples. Experimental results on four benchmark datasets and three large-scale datasets validate the effectiveness of our proposed method.