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Modular Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting: Interpretability and Feature Selection using Attention
Su, Qiqi, Kloukinas, Christos, Garcez, Artur d'Avila
Multivariate time series have many applications, from healthcare and meteorology to life science. Although deep learning models have shown excellent predictive performance for time series, they have been criticised for being "black-boxes" or non-interpretable. This paper proposes a novel modular neural network model for multivariate time series prediction that is interpretable by construction. A recurrent neural network learns the temporal dependencies in the data while an attention-based feature selection component selects the most relevant features and suppresses redundant features used in the learning of the temporal dependencies. A modular deep network is trained from the selected features independently to show the users how features influence outcomes, making the model interpretable. Experimental results show that this approach can outperform state-of-the-art interpretable Neural Additive Models (NAM) and variations thereof in both regression and classification of time series tasks, achieving a predictive performance that is comparable to the top non-interpretable methods for time series, LSTM and XGBoost.
Neural Analogical Matching
Crouse, Maxwell, Nakos, Constantine, Abdelaziz, Ibrahim, Forbus, Kenneth
Analogy is core to human cognition. It allows us to solve problems based on prior experience, it governs the way we conceptualize new information, and it even influences our visual perception. The importance of analogy to humans has made it an active area of research in the broader field of artificial intelligence, resulting in data-efficient models that learn and reason in human-like ways. While analogy and deep learning have generally been considered independently of one another, the integration of the two lines of research seems like a promising step towards more robust and efficient learning techniques. As part of the first steps towards such an integration, we introduce the Analogical Matching Network; a neural architecture that learns to produce analogies between structured, symbolic representations that are largely consistent with the principles of Structure-Mapping Theory.