Alternators have recently been introduced as a framework for modeling time-dependent data. They often outperform other popular frameworks, such as state-space models and diffusion models, on challenging time-series tasks. This paper introduces a new Alternator model, called Alternator++, which enhances the flexibility of traditional Alternators by explicitly modeling the noise terms used to sample the latent and observed trajectories, drawing on the idea of noise models from the diffusion modeling literature. Alternator++ optimizes the sum of the Alternator loss and a noise-matching loss. The latter forces the noise trajectories generated by the two noise models to approximate the noise trajectories that produce the observed and latent trajectories. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Alternator++ in tasks such as density estimation, time series imputation, and forecasting, showing that it outperforms several strong baselines, including Mambas, ScoreGrad, and Dyffusion.

Current state-of-the-art dynamical models, such as Mamba, assume the same level of noisiness for all elements of a given sequence, which limits their performance on noisy temporal data. In this paper, we introduce the $\alpha$-Alternator, a novel generative model for time-dependent data that dynamically adapts to the complexity introduced by varying noise levels in sequences. The $\alpha$-Alternator leverages the Vendi Score (VS), a flexible similarity-based diversity metric, to adjust, at each time step $t$, the influence of the sequence element at time $t$ and the latent representation of the dynamics up to that time step on the predicted future dynamics. This influence is captured by a parameter that is learned and shared across all sequences in a given dataset. The sign of this parameter determines the direction of influence. A negative value indicates a noisy dataset, where a sequence element that increases the VS is considered noisy, and the model relies more on the latent history when processing that element. Conversely, when the parameter is positive, a sequence element that increases the VS is considered informative, and the $\alpha$-Alternator relies more on this new input than on the latent history when updating its predicted latent dynamics. The $\alpha$-Alternator is trained using a combination of observation masking and Alternator loss minimization. Masking simulates varying noise levels in sequences, enabling the model to be more robust to these fluctuations and improving its performance in trajectory prediction, imputation, and forecasting. Our experimental results demonstrate that the $\alpha$-Alternator outperforms both Alternators and state-of-the-art state-space models across neural decoding and time-series forecasting benchmarks.

This paper introduces alternators, a novel family of non-Markovian dynamical models for sequences. An alternator features two neural networks: the observation trajectory network (OTN) and the feature trajectory network (FTN). The OTN and the FTN work in conjunction, alternating between outputting samples in the observation space and some feature space, respectively, over a cycle. The parameters of the OTN and the FTN are not time-dependent and are learned via a minimum cross-entropy criterion over the trajectories. Alternators are versatile. They can be used as dynamical latent-variable generative models or as sequence-to-sequence predictors. When alternators are used as generative models, the FTN produces interpretable low-dimensional latent variables that capture the dynamics governing the observations. When alternators are used as sequence-to-sequence predictors, the FTN learns to predict the observed features. In both cases, the OTN learns to produce sequences that match the data. Alternators can uncover the latent dynamics underlying complex sequential data, accurately forecast and impute missing data, and sample new trajectories. We showcase the capabilities of alternators in three applications. We first used alternators to model the Lorenz equations, often used to describe chaotic behavior. We then applied alternators to Neuroscience, to map brain activity to physical activity. Finally, we applied alternators to Climate Science, focusing on sea-surface temperature forecasting. In all our experiments, we found alternators are stable to train, fast to sample from, yield high-quality generated samples and latent variables, and outperform strong baselines such as neural ODEs and diffusion models in the domains we studied.

Like any farmer, Guy Mills Jr. has had his share of equipment trouble. In the past, Mills, who grows corn, soybean and alfalfa on his 3,810-acre farm in Ansley, Neb., would have fixed his machinery himself. But like so many essential tools, Mills' equipment has become so technologically complex that he needs outside help when it breaks down. Unfortunately for him, that help can eat up time and money, both of which have been in short supply. "If you have a bad alternator, they connect a computer to your tractor and it tells them the alternator is bad," says Mills, 57.