In machine learning, a critical class of decision-making problems involves Avoiding Undesired Future (AUF): given a predicted undesired outcome, how can one make decision about actions to prevent it? Recently, the rehearsal learning framework has been proposed to address AUF problem. While existing methods offer reliable decisions for single-round success, this paper considers long-term settings that involve coordinating multiple future outcomes, which is often required in real-world tasks. Specifically, we generalize the AUF objective to characterize a long-term decision target that incorporates cross-temporal relations among variables. As directly optimizing the AUF probability PAUF over this objective remains challenging, we derive an explicit expression for the objective and further propose a quadratic programming (QP) reformulation that transforms the intractable probabilistic AUF optimization into a tractable one. Under mild assumptions, we show that solutions to the QP reformulation are equivalent to those of the original AUF optimization, based on which we develop two novel rehearsal learning methods for long-term decision-making: (i) a greedy method that maximizes the single-round PAUF at each step, and (ii) a far-sighted method that accounts for future consequences in each decision, yielding a higher overall PAUF through an L/(L+1) variance reduction in the AUF objective. We further establish an O(1/ N) excess risk bound for decisions based on estimated parameters, ensuring reliable practical applicability with finite data.

We study the problem of infrequent exploration in linear bandits, addressing a significant yet overlooked gap between fully adaptive exploratory methods (e.g., UCB and Thompson Sampling), which explore potentially at every time step, and purely greedy approaches, which require stringent diversity assumptions to succeed. Continuous exploration can be impractical or unethical in safety-critical or costly domains, while purely greedy strategies typically fail without adequate contextual diversity. To bridge these extremes, we introduce a simple and practical framework, INFEX, explicitly designed for infrequent exploration. INFEX executes a base exploratory policy according to a given schedule while predominantly choosing greedy actions in between. Despite its simplicity, our theoretical analysis demonstrates that INFEX achieves instance-dependent regret matching standard provably efficient algorithms, provided the exploration frequency exceeds a logarithmic threshold. Additionally, INFEXis a general, modular framework that allows seamless integration of any fully adaptive exploration method, enabling wide applicability and ease of adoption. By restricting intensive exploratory computations to infrequent intervals, our approach can also enhance computational efficiency. Empirical evaluations confirm our theoretical findings, showing state-of-the-art regret performance and runtime improvements over existing methods.

Conformal prediction methods enjoy strong theoretical and empirical predictive inference performance, provided the data is exchangeable, and predictors are trained in a memoryless fashion. However, these assumptions and constraints are impractical in many real-data settings, such as time series (where temporal dependence violates exchangeability, and where memoryless predictors will inevitably have poor predictive accuracy). Recent work shows that the split conformal prediction method is robust to these issues of memory-based predictors and deviations from exchangeability that are common features of time-series data. However, since using sample splitting can lead to lower accuracy, this motivates asking whether other predictive inference methods (that do not rely on data splitting) could also be reliably used in the time series setting. In this work, we show that the vanilla leave-one-out jackknife can suffer an arbitrary loss of coverage even in canonical time series models with mild temporal dependence. As a remedy, we propose a careful modification tailored to such settings, which we term the \emph{leave-a-window-out} (LWO) method, and show that it can achieve valid coverage provided that the model-fitting procedure satisfies mild stability properties. Our proofs are based on quantifying the degree to which the data departs from \emph{cyclic exchangeability}, and we introduce new coefficients to measure the extent of this departure. Experiments on time series data demonstrate that our LWO method often enjoys valid coverage when the vanilla jackknife fails to cover, while producing much narrower intervals than split conformal prediction.

We consider $L^2$-regularized linear (ridge) regression over a finite data sample $X$ with bounded covariance and linear prediction targets $y$ with additive isotropic noise of finite variance. We present an iterative procedure to compute the optimal regularization strength numerically from the generative parameters in the fixed-$X$ setting and prove its convergence at limited noise levels. Our experimental evaluation over synthetic data shows that the proposed procedure combined with sample-based parameter estimates attains near-optimal random-$X$ generalization across a wide range of sample sizes, aspect ratios, and noise levels, at an added computational cost equivalent to one preliminary ridge regression in the underparameterized regime and two in the overparameterized case.

Aligning foundation models is essential for their safe and trustworthy deployment. However, traditional fine-tuning methods are computationally intensive and require updating billions of model parameters. A promising alternative, alignment via decoding, adjusts the response distribution directly without model updates to maximize a target reward r, thus providing a lightweight and adaptable framework for alignment. However, principled decoding methods rely on oracle access to an optimal Q-function (Q), which is often unavailable in practice. Hence, prior SoTA methods either approximate this Q using Qπsft (derived from the reference SFTmodel) or rely on short-term rewards, resulting in sub-optimal decoding performance. In this work, we propose Transfer Q, which implicitly estimates the optimal value function for a target reward r through a baseline model ρBL aligned with a baseline reward rBL (which can be different from the target reward r). Theoretical analyses of Transfer Q provide a rigorous characterization of its optimality, deriving an upper bound on the sub-optimality gap and identifying a hyperparameter to control the deviation from the pre-trained reference SFTmodel based on user needs. Our approach significantly reduces the sub-optimality gap observed in prior SoTA methods and demonstrates superior empirical performance across key metrics such as coherence, diversity, and quality in extensive tests on several synthetic and real datasets.

Label efficiency has become an increasingly important objective in deep learning applications. Active learning aims to reduce the number of labeled examples needed to train deep networks, but the empirical performance of active learning algorithms can vary dramatically across datasets and applications. It is difficult to know in advance which active learning strategy will perform well or best in a given application. To address this, we propose the first adaptive algorithm selection strategy for deep active learning. For any unlabeled dataset, our (meta) algorithm TAILOR(Thompson ActIve Learning algORithm selection) iteratively and adaptively chooses among a set of candidate active learning algorithms. TAILORuses novel reward functions aimed at gathering class-balanced examples. Extensive experiments in multi-class and multi-label applications demonstrate TAILOR's effectiveness in achieving accuracy comparable or better than that of the best of the candidate algorithms. Our implementation of TAILOR is open-sourced at https://github.com/jifanz/TAILOR.

It was estimated that the world produced 59ZB(5.9