Conformal prediction methods enjoy strong theoretical and empirical predictive inference performance, provided the data is exchangeable, and predictors are trained in a memoryless fashion. However, these assumptions and constraints are impractical in many real-data settings, such as time series (where temporal dependence violates exchangeability, and where memoryless predictors will inevitably have poor predictive accuracy). Recent work shows that the split conformal prediction method is robust to these issues of memory-based predictors and deviations from exchangeability that are common features of time-series data. However, since using sample splitting can lead to lower accuracy, this motivates asking whether other predictive inference methods (that do not rely on data splitting) could also be reliably used in the time series setting. In this work, we show that the vanilla leave-one-out jackknife can suffer an arbitrary loss of coverage even in canonical time series models with mild temporal dependence. As a remedy, we propose a careful modification tailored to such settings, which we term the \emph{leave-a-window-out} (LWO) method, and show that it can achieve valid coverage provided that the model-fitting procedure satisfies mild stability properties. Our proofs are based on quantifying the degree to which the data departs from \emph{cyclic exchangeability}, and we introduce new coefficients to measure the extent of this departure. Experiments on time series data demonstrate that our LWO method often enjoys valid coverage when the vanilla jackknife fails to cover, while producing much narrower intervals than split conformal prediction.

We consider $L^2$-regularized linear (ridge) regression over a finite data sample $X$ with bounded covariance and linear prediction targets $y$ with additive isotropic noise of finite variance. We present an iterative procedure to compute the optimal regularization strength numerically from the generative parameters in the fixed-$X$ setting and prove its convergence at limited noise levels. Our experimental evaluation over synthetic data shows that the proposed procedure combined with sample-based parameter estimates attains near-optimal random-$X$ generalization across a wide range of sample sizes, aspect ratios, and noise levels, at an added computational cost equivalent to one preliminary ridge regression in the underparameterized regime and two in the overparameterized case.

Aligning foundation models is essential for their safe and trustworthy deployment. However, traditional fine-tuning methods are computationally intensive and require updating billions of model parameters. A promising alternative, alignment via decoding, adjusts the response distribution directly without model updates to maximize a target reward r, thus providing a lightweight and adaptable framework for alignment. However, principled decoding methods rely on oracle access to an optimal Q-function (Q), which is often unavailable in practice. Hence, prior SoTA methods either approximate this Q using Qπsft (derived from the reference SFTmodel) or rely on short-term rewards, resulting in sub-optimal decoding performance. In this work, we propose Transfer Q, which implicitly estimates the optimal value function for a target reward r through a baseline model ρBL aligned with a baseline reward rBL (which can be different from the target reward r). Theoretical analyses of Transfer Q provide a rigorous characterization of its optimality, deriving an upper bound on the sub-optimality gap and identifying a hyperparameter to control the deviation from the pre-trained reference SFTmodel based on user needs. Our approach significantly reduces the sub-optimality gap observed in prior SoTA methods and demonstrates superior empirical performance across key metrics such as coherence, diversity, and quality in extensive tests on several synthetic and real datasets.

Label efficiency has become an increasingly important objective in deep learning applications. Active learning aims to reduce the number of labeled examples needed to train deep networks, but the empirical performance of active learning algorithms can vary dramatically across datasets and applications. It is difficult to know in advance which active learning strategy will perform well or best in a given application. To address this, we propose the first adaptive algorithm selection strategy for deep active learning. For any unlabeled dataset, our (meta) algorithm TAILOR(Thompson ActIve Learning algORithm selection) iteratively and adaptively chooses among a set of candidate active learning algorithms. TAILORuses novel reward functions aimed at gathering class-balanced examples. Extensive experiments in multi-class and multi-label applications demonstrate TAILOR's effectiveness in achieving accuracy comparable or better than that of the best of the candidate algorithms. Our implementation of TAILOR is open-sourced at https://github.com/jifanz/TAILOR.

It was estimated that the world produced 59ZB(5.9

A.1 Construction of a D-EquiStatic graph A practical method to construct a D-EquiStatic weight matrix W is provided in Alg. 3. We should mention that the "while" loop in the algorithm is adopted to guarantee kΠWk2 ρ. Construct W by (3); end Output: The D-EquiStatic weight matrix W and its associated basis indices {ut}Mt=1 A.2 Proof of Theorem 1 Before showing properties of W defined by (3), we provide two lemmas as follows. Referring to Theorem 1.6 of [32], we have the following result for a sequence of random matrices. Lemma 1 (Matrix Bernstein) Consider a sequence of K independent random n n matrices {Mi}Ki=1. Assume that each random matrix satisfies E[Mi] = 0, and kMik2 R almost surely. Theorem 1 (Formal restatement of Theorem 1) Let A(u) be defined by (2) for any u [n 1]and the D-EquiStatic weight matrix W be constructed by (3) with {ui}Mi=1 following an independent and identical uniform distribution from [n 1].

We study the sample complexity of learning an $ε$-optimal policy in the Stochastic Shortest Path (SSP) problem. We first derive sample complexity bounds when the learner has access to a generative model. We show that there exists a worst-case SSP instance with $S$ states, $A$ actions, minimum cost $c_{\min}$, and maximum expected cost of the optimal policy over all states $B_{\star}$, where any algorithm requires at least $Ω(SAB_{\star}^3/(c_{\min}ε^2))$ samples to return an $ε$-optimal policy with high probability. Surprisingly, this implies that whenever $c_{\min} = 0$ an SSP problem may not be learnable, thus revealing that learning in SSPs is strictly harder than in the finite-horizon and discounted settings. We complement this lower bound with an algorithm that matches it, up to logarithmic factors, in the general case, and an algorithm that matches it up to logarithmic factors even when $c_{\min} = 0$, but only under the condition that the optimal policy has a bounded hitting time to the goal state.