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Comparing the quality of neural network uncertainty estimates for classification problems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditional deep learning (DL) models are powerful classifiers, but many approaches do not provide uncertainties for their estimates. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for DL models have received increased attention in the literature due to their usefulness in decision making, particularly for high-consequence decisions. However, there has been little research done on how to evaluate the quality of such methods. We use statistical methods of frequentist interval coverage and interval width to evaluate the quality of credible intervals, and expected calibration error to evaluate classification predicted confidence. These metrics are evaluated on Bayesian neural networks (BNN) fit using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference (VI), bootstrapped neural networks (NN), Deep Ensembles (DE), and Monte Carlo (MC) dropout. We apply these different UQ for DL methods to a hyperspectral image target detection problem and show the inconsistency of the different methods' results and the necessity of a UQ quality metric. To reconcile these differences and choose a UQ method that appropriately quantifies the uncertainty, we create a simulated data set with fully parameterized probability distribution for a two-class classification problem. The gold standard MCMC performs the best overall, and the bootstrapped NN is a close second, requiring the same computational expense as DE. Through this comparison, we demonstrate that, for a given data set, different models can produce uncertainty estimates of markedly different quality. This in turn points to a great need for principled assessment methods of UQ quality in DL applications.


Careers - Airgility, Inc.

#artificialintelligence

Aspen Avionics is aligning their graphical user interface development with Airgility and we will in turn/time begin to align our algorithms and AI development into their avionics products. Since the vision is to cross-align each other's company capabilities, while the position can be held remotely, it is highly preferable to have the new hires that are able to physically be present at Airgility in College Park (MD) or in Albuquerque (NM). The physical presence of the Software Engineer(s) will allow the new hire access to learn about the robotics work performed at Airgility. Therefore, future development that inlays Airgility's work into Aspen's Avionics products will likely create a smoother workflow since a portion of Aspen's engineering team is deployed within Airgility. If the hire is located at Airgility, travel to Albuquerque (NM) is required.


David Eagleman: 'The working of the brain resembles drug dealers in Albuquerque'

The Guardian

David Eagleman, 50, is an American neuroscientist, bestselling author and presenter of the BBC series The Brain, as well as co-founder and chief executive officer of Neosensory, which develops devices for sensory substitution. His area of speciality is brain plasticity, and that is the subject of his new book, Livewired, which examines how experience refashions the brain, and shows that it is a much more adaptable organ than previously thought. For the past half-century or more the brain has been spoken of in terms of a computer. What are the biggest flaws with that particular model? But in fact, what we're looking at is three pounds of material in our skulls that is essentially a very alien kind of material to us.


Boy Drowns at Hotel While in Albuquerque for Robotics Event

U.S. News

While the group was staying at a Wyndham Hotel in the city, police say, the teen entered the swimming pool and drowned Monday, with hotel staff jumping into the water to try to save the child, pulling him from the water and attempting CPR.


HITECH CHESS REPORT

AI Magazine

In response to this need, Shelby Lyman, the host of past Public Broadcasting Station (PBS) series on world chess championship matches, organized the AGS Challenge Match at the New School for Social Research in New York City. Funding for this event was provided by AGS Computers, Inc., a New Jersey-based software firm. The match was held September 22-25, with one game played each day, and was widely covered by the international press. Participating were Hitech, at 2407 then the highest-rated computer in the world, and International Grandmaster Arnold S. Denker, a former U.S. champion. Denker's rating of 2410 was comparable to that of Hitech.


Some New Bounds on the Generalization Error of Combined Classifiers

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper we develop the method of bounding the generalization error of a classifier in terms of its margin distribution which was introduced in the recent papers of Bartlett and Schapire, Freund, Bartlett and Lee. The theory of Gaussian and empirical processes allow us to prove the margin type inequalities for the most general functional classes, the complexity of the class being measured via the so called Gaussian complexity functions. As a simple application of our results, we obtain the bounds of Schapire, Freund, Bartlett and Lee for the generalization error of boosting. We also substantially improve the results of Bartlett on bounding the generalization error of neural networks in terms of h -norms of the weights of neurons. Furthermore, under additional assumptions on the complexity of the class of hypotheses we provide some tighter bounds, which in the case of boosting improve the results of Schapire, Freund, Bartlett and Lee.


Some New Bounds on the Generalization Error of Combined Classifiers

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper we develop the method of bounding the generalization error of a classifier in terms of its margin distribution which was introduced in the recent papers of Bartlett and Schapire, Freund, Bartlett and Lee. The theory of Gaussian and empirical processes allow us to prove the margin type inequalities for the most general functional classes, the complexity of the class being measured via the so called Gaussian complexity functions. As a simple application of our results, we obtain the bounds of Schapire, Freund, Bartlett and Lee for the generalization error of boosting. We also substantially improve the results of Bartlett on bounding the generalization error of neural networks in terms of h -norms of the weights of neurons. Furthermore, under additional assumptions on the complexity of the class of hypotheses we provide some tighter bounds, which in the case of boosting improve the results of Schapire, Freund, Bartlett and Lee.


Hitech Defeats Denker in AGS Challenge Match

AI Magazine

In response to this by Denker with an impressive series need, Shelby Lyman, the host of past of moves that ended in a sacrifice Public Broadcasting Station (PBS) which brought home the win. Everyone series on world chess championship seemed impressed with Hitech's matches, organized the AGS Challenge performance throughout the match, Match at the New School for although it was clear the audience Social Research in New York City. Denker Funding for this event was provided was generous in his praise of Hitech, by AGS Computers, Inc., a New Jersey-based saying, "The machine gave me a real software firm. The match trimming; I am very impressed." The was held September 22-25, with one final game of the match follows with game played each day, and was widely a few annotations.