Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

We consider estimation of a linear functional of the treatment effect from adaptively collected data. This problem finds a variety of applications including off-policy evaluation in contextual bandits, and estimation of the average treatment effect in causal inference. While a certain class of augmented inverse propensity weighting (AIPW) estimators enjoys desirable asymptotic properties including the semi-parametric efficiency, much less is known about their non-asymptotic theory with adaptively collected data. To fill in the gap, we first present generic upper bounds on the mean-squared error of the class of AIPW estimators that crucially depends on a sequentially weighted error between the treatment effect and its estimates. Motivated by this, we propose a general reduction scheme that allows one to produce a sequence of estimates for the treatment effect via online learning to minimize the sequentially weighted estimation error. To illustrate this, we provide three concrete instantiations in (1) the tabular case; (2) the case of linear function approximation; and (3) the case of general function approximation for the outcome model. We then provide a local minimax lower bound to show the instance-dependent optimality of the AIPW estimator using no-regret online learning algorithms.

Adapting to distribution shifts is a critical challenge in modern machine learning, especially as data in many real-world applications accumulate continuously in the form of streams. We investigate the problem of sequentially adapting a model to non-stationary environments, where the data distribution is continuously shifting and only a small amount of unlabeled data are available each time. Continual test-time adaptation methods have shown promising results by using reliable pseudo-labels, but they still fall short in exploring representation alignment with the source domain in non-stationary environments. In this paper, we propose to leverage non-stationary representation learning to adaptively align the unlabeled data stream, with its changing distributions, to the source data representation using a sketch of the source data. To alleviate the data scarcity in non-stationary representation learning, we propose a novel adaptive representation alignment algorithm called Ada-ReAlign. This approach employs a group of base learners to explore different lengths of the unlabeled data stream, which are adaptively combined by a meta learner to handle unknown and continuously evolving data distributions. The proposed method comes with nice theoretical guarantees under convexity assumptions. Experiments on both benchmark datasets and a real-world application validate the effectiveness and adaptability of our proposed algorithm.

Off-policy estimation: Oftentimes, one needs to estimate the linear functional based on observational data collected from a behavior policy.

Our framework may be thought of as a generalization of the synthetic control and synthetic interventions frameworks, where data is collected via an adaptive intervention assignment policy.

In this paper, we introduce a generalization of the standard Stackelberg Games (SGs) framework: Calibrated Stackelberg Games (CSGs) .

In this paper, we introduce a generalization of the standard Stackelberg Games (SGs) framework: Calibrated Stackelberg Games (CSGs) .

However, differential privacy's worst-case nature entails scaling such noise to the range of the queries even for