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Model Families for Multi-Criteria Decision Support: A COVID-19 Case Study

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Continued model-based decision support is associated with particular challenges, especially in long-term projects. Due to the regularly changing questions and the often changing understanding of the underlying system, the models used must be regularly re-evaluated, -modelled and -implemented with respect to changing modelling purpose, system boundaries and mapped causalities. Usually, this leads to models with continuously growing complexity and volume. In this work we aim to reevaluate the idea of the model family, dating back to the 1990s, and use it to promote this as a mindset in the creation of decision support frameworks in large research projects. The idea is to generally not develop and enhance a single standalone model, but to divide the research tasks into interacting smaller models which specifically correspond to the research question. This strategy comes with many advantages, which we explain using the example of a family of models for decision support in the COVID-19 crisis and corresponding success stories. We describe the individual models, explain their role within the family, and how they are used - individually and with each other.


ABEM: An Adaptive Agent-based Evolutionary Approach for Mining Influencers in Online Social Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A key step in influence maximization in online social networks is the identification of a small number of users, known as influencers, who are able to spread influence quickly and widely to other users. The evolving nature of the topological structure of these networks makes it difficult to locate and identify these influencers. In this paper, we propose an adaptive agent-based evolutionary approach to address this problem in the context of both static and dynamic networks. This approach is shown to be able to adapt the solution as the network evolves. It is also applicable to large-scale networks due to its distributed framework. Evaluation of our approach is performed by using both synthetic networks and real-world datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms state-of-the-art seeding algorithms in terms of maximizing influence.