The Baum-Welsh algorithm together with its derivatives and variations has been the main technique for learning Hidden Markov Models (HMM) from observational data. We present an HMM learning algorithm based on the non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) of higher order Markovian statistics that is structurally different from the Baum-Welsh and its associated approaches. The described algorithm supports estimation of the number of recurrent states of an HMM and iterates the non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) algorithm to improve the learned HMM parameters. Numerical examples are provided as well.

We analyze how an observer synchronizes to the internal state of a finite-state information source, using the epsilon-machine causal representation. Here, we treat the case of exact synchronization, when it is possible for the observer to synchronize completely after a finite number of observations. The more difficult case of strictly asymptotic synchronization is treated in a sequel. In both cases, we find that an observer, on average, will synchronize to the source state exponentially fast and that, as a result, the average accuracy in an observer's predictions of the source output approaches its optimal level exponentially fast as well. Additionally, we show here how to analytically calculate the synchronization rate for exact epsilon-machines and provide an efficient polynomial-time algorithm to test epsilon-machines for exactness.

We extend a recent synchronization analysis of exact finite-state sources to nonexact sources for which synchronization occurs only asymptotically. Although the proof methods are quite different, the primary results remain the same. We find that an observer's average uncertainty in the source state vanishes exponentially fast and, as a consequence, an observer's average uncertainty in predicting future output converges exponentially fast to the source entropy rate.

Using the notion of an elementary loop, Gebser and Schaub refined the theorem on loop formulas due to Lin and Zhao by considering loop formulas of elementary loops only. In this article, we reformulate their definition of an elementary loop, extend it to disjunctive programs, and study several properties of elementary loops, including how maximal elementary loops are related to minimal unfounded sets. The results provide useful insights into the stable model semantics in terms of elementary loops. For a nondisjunctive program, using a graph-theoretic characterization of an elementary loop, we show that the problem of recognizing an elementary loop is tractable. On the other hand, we show that the corresponding problem is {\sf coNP}-complete for a disjunctive program. Based on the notion of an elementary loop, we present the class of Head-Elementary-loop-Free (HEF) programs, which strictly generalizes the class of Head-Cycle-Free (HCF) programs due to Ben-Eliyahu and Dechter. Like an HCF program, an HEF program can be turned into an equivalent nondisjunctive program in polynomial time by shifting head atoms into the body.

The International Monitoring System (IMS) is a global network of sensors whose purpose is to identify potential violations of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), primarily through detection and localization of seismic events. We report on the first stage of a project to improve on the current automated software system with a Bayesian inference system that computes the most likely global event history given the record of local sensor data. The new system, VISA (Vertically Integrated Seismological Analysis), is based on empirically calibrated, generative models of event occurrence, signal propagation, and signal detection. VISA exhibits significantly improved precision and recall compared to the current operational system and is able to detect events that are missed even by the human analysts who post-process the IMS output.

With the present revival of interest in bistatic radar systems, research in that area has gained momentum. Given some of the strategic advantages for a bistatic configuration, and tech- nological advances in the past few years, large-scale implementation of the bistatic systems is a scope for the near future. If the bistatic systems are to replace the monostatic systems (at least par- tially), then all the existing usages of a monostatic system should be manageable in a bistatic system. A detailed investigation of the possibilities of an automatic target recognition (ATR) facil- ity in a bistatic radar system is presented. Because of the lack of data, experiments were carried out on simulated data. Still, the results are positive and make a positive case for the introduction of the bistatic configuration. First, it was found that, contrary to the popular expectation that the bistatic ATR performance might be substantially worse than the monostatic ATR performance, the bistatic ATR performed fairly well (though not better than the monostatic ATR). Second, the ATR per- formance does not deteriorate substantially with increasing bistatic angle. Last, the polarimetric data from bistatic scattering were found to have distinct information, contrary to expert opinions. Along with these results, suggestions were also made about how to stabilise the bistatic-ATR per- formance with changing bistatic angle. Finally, a new fast and robust ATR algorithm (developed in the present work) has been presented.

Recent studies have shown that multiple kernel learning is very effective for object recognition, leading to the popularity of kernel learning in computer vision problems. In this work, we develop an efficient algorithm for multi-label multiple kernel learning (ML-MKL). We assume that all the classes under consideration share the same combination of kernel functions, and the objective is to find the optimal kernel combination that benefits all the classes. Although several algorithms have been developed for ML-MKL, their computational cost is linear in the number of classes, making them unscalable when the number of classes is large, a challenge frequently encountered in visual object recognition. We address this computational challenge by developing a framework for ML-MKL that combines the worst-case analysis with stochastic approximation. Our analysis shows that the complexity of our algorithm is $O(m^{1/3}\sqrt{ln m})$, where $m$ is the number of classes. Empirical studies with object recognition show that while achieving similar classification accuracy, the proposed method is significantly more efficient than the state-of-the-art algorithms for ML-MKL.

A method for computing the rarity of latent fingerprints represented by minutiae is given. It allows determining the probability of finding a match for an evidence print in a database of n known prints. The probability of random correspondence between evidence and database is determined in three procedural steps. In the registration step the latent print is aligned by finding its core point; which is done using a procedure based on a machine learning approach based on Gaussian processes. In the evidence probability evaluation step a generative model based on Bayesian networks is used to determine the probability of the evidence; it takes into account both the dependency of each minutia on nearby minutiae and the confidence of their presence in the evidence. In the specific probability of random correspondence step the evidence probability is used to determine the probability of match among n for a given tolerance; the last evaluation is similar to the birthday correspondence probability for a specific birthday. The generative model is validated using a goodness-of-fit test evaluated with a standard database of fingerprints. The probability of random correspondence for several latent fingerprints are evaluated for varying numbers of minutiae.

We present an algorithm for learning high-treewidth Markov networks where inference is still tractable. This is made possible by exploiting context specific independence and determinism in the domain. The class of models our algorithm can learn has the same desirable properties as thin junction trees: polynomial inference, closed form weight learning, etc., but is much broader. Our algorithm searches for a feature that divides the state space into subspaces where the remaining variables decompose into independent subsets (conditioned on the feature or its negation) and recurses on each subspace/subset of variables until no useful new features can be found. We provide probabilistic performance guarantees for our algorithm under the assumption that the maximum feature length is k (the treewidth can be much larger) and dependences are of bounded strength. We also propose a greedy version of the algorithm that, while forgoing these guarantees, is much more efficient.Experiments on a variety of domains show that our approach compares favorably with thin junction trees and other Markov network structure learners.

This paper introduces a Monte-Carlo algorithm for online planning in large POMDPs. The algorithm combines a Monte-Carlo update of the agent's belief state with a Monte-Carlo tree search from the current belief state. The new algorithm, POMCP, has two important properties. First, Monte-Carlo sampling is used to break the curse of dimensionality both during belief state updates and during planning. Second, only a black box simulator of the POMDP is required, rather than explicit probability distributions. These properties enable POMCP to plan effectively in significantly larger POMDPs than has previously been possible. We demonstrate its effectiveness in three large POMDPs. We scale up a well-known benchmark problem, Rocksample, by several orders of magnitude. We also introduce two challenging new POMDPs: 10x10 Battleship and Partially Observable PacMan, with approximately 10^18 and 10^56 states respectively. Our Monte-Carlo planning algorithm achieved a high level of performance with no prior knowledge, and was also able to exploit simple domain knowledge to achieve better results with less search. POMCP is the first general purpose planner to achieve high performance in such large and unfactored POMDPs.