A triangular structural panel data model with additive separable individual-specific effects is used to model the causal effect of a covariate on an outcome variable when there are unobservable confounders with some of them time-invariant. In this setup, a linear reduced-form equation might be problematic when the conditional mean of the endogenous covariate and the instrumental variables is nonlinear. The reason is that ignoring the nonlinearity could lead to weak instruments As a solution, we propose a triangular simultaneous equation model for panel data with additive separable individual-specific fixed effects composed of a linear structural equation with a nonlinear reduced form equation. The parameter of interest is the structural parameter of the endogenous variable. The identification of this parameter is obtained under the assumption of available exclusion restrictions and using a control function approach. Estimating the parameter of interest is done using an estimator that we call Super Learner Control Function estimator (SLCFE). The estimation procedure is composed of two main steps and sample splitting. We estimate the control function using a super learner using sample splitting. In the following step, we use the estimated control function to control for endogeneity in the structural equation. Sample splitting is done across the individual dimension. We perform a Monte Carlo simulation to test the performance of the estimators proposed. We conclude that the Super Learner Control Function Estimators significantly outperform Within 2SLS estimators.

Fingerprint-based indoor localization is often labor-intensive due to the need for dense grids and repeated measurements across time and space. Maintaining high localization accuracy with extremely sparse fingerprints remains a persistent challenge. Existing benchmark methods primarily rely on the measured fingerprints, while neglecting valuable spatial and environmental characteristics. In this paper, we propose a systematic integration of an Attentional Graph Neural Network (AGNN) model, capable of learning spatial adjacency relationships and aggregating information from neighboring fingerprints, and a meta-learning framework that utilizes datasets with similar environmental characteristics to enhance model training. To minimize the labor required for fingerprint collection, we introduce two novel data augmentation strategies: 1) unlabeled fingerprint augmentation using moving platforms, which enables the semi-supervised AGNN model to incorporate information from unlabeled fingerprints, and 2) synthetic labeled fingerprint augmentation through environmental digital twins, which enhances the meta-learning framework through a practical distribution alignment, which can minimize the feature discrepancy between synthetic and real-world fingerprints effectively. By integrating these novel modules, we propose the Attentional Graph Meta-Learning (AGML) model. This novel model combines the strengths of the AGNN model and the meta-learning framework to address the challenges posed by extremely sparse fingerprints. To validate our approach, we collected multiple datasets from both consumer-grade WiFi devices and professional equipment across diverse environments. Extensive experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that the AGML model-based localization method consistently outperforms all baseline methods using sparse fingerprints across all evaluated metrics.

Given two boundary distributions, the Schr\"odinger Bridge (SB) problem seeks the ``most likely`` random evolution between them with respect to a reference process. It has revealed rich connections to recent machine learning methods for generative modeling and distribution matching. While these methods perform well in Euclidean domains, they are not directly applicable to topological domains such as graphs and simplicial complexes, which are crucial for data defined over network entities, such as node signals and edge flows. In this work, we propose the Topological Schr\"odinger Bridge problem (TSBP) for matching signal distributions on a topological domain. We set the reference process to follow some linear tractable topology-aware stochastic dynamics such as topological heat diffusion. For the case of Gaussian boundary distributions, we derive a closed-form topological SB (TSB) in terms of its time-marginal and stochastic differential. In the general case, leveraging the well-known result, we show that the optimal process follows the forward-backward topological dynamics governed by some unknowns. Building on these results, we develop TSB-based models for matching topological signals by parameterizing the unknowns in the optimal process as (topological) neural networks and learning them through likelihood training. We validate the theoretical results and demonstrate the practical applications of TSB-based models on both synthetic and real-world networks, emphasizing the role of topology. Additionally, we discuss the connections of TSB-based models to other emerging models, and outline future directions for topological signal matching.

This paper studies constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs) with constraints against stochastic thresholds, aiming at safety of reinforcement learning in unknown and uncertain environments. We leverage a Growing-Window estimator sampling from interactions with the uncertain and dynamic environment to estimate the thresholds, based on which we design Stochastic Pessimistic-Optimistic Thresholding (SPOT), a novel model-based primal-dual algorithm for multiple constraints against stochastic thresholds. SPOT enables reinforcement learning under both pessimistic and optimistic threshold settings. We prove that our algorithm achieves sublinear regret and constraint violation; i.e., a reward regret of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ while allowing an $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ constraint violation over $T$ episodes. The theoretical guarantees show that our algorithm achieves performance comparable to that of an approach relying on fixed and clear thresholds. To the best of our knowledge, SPOT is the first reinforcement learning algorithm that realises theoretical guaranteed performance in an uncertain environment where even thresholds are unknown.

Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a popular supervised classification model that works by first finding the margin boundaries for the training data classes and then calculating the decision boundary, which is then used to classify the test data. This study demonstrates limitations of traditional support vector classification which uses cartesian coordinate geometry to find the margin and decision boundaries in an input space using only a few support vectors, without considering data variance and correlation. Subsequently, the study proposes a new Cholesky Kernel that adjusts for the effects of variance-covariance structure of the data in the decision boundary equation and margin calculations. The study demonstrates that SVM model is valid only in the Euclidean space, and the Cholesky kernel obtained by decomposing covariance matrix acts as a transformation matrix, which when applied on the original data transforms the data from the input space to the Euclidean space. The effectiveness of the Cholesky kernel based SVM classifier is demonstrated by classifying the Wisconsin Breast Cancer (Diagnostic) Dataset and comparing with traditional SVM approaches. The Cholesky kernel based SVM model shows marked improvement in the precision, recall and F1 scores compared to linear and other kernel SVMs.

We study counterfactual regression, which aims to map input features to outcomes under hypothetical scenarios that differ from those observed in the data. This is particularly useful for decision-making when adapting to sudden shifts in treatment patterns is essential. We propose a doubly robust-style estimator for counterfactual regression within a generalizable framework that accommodates a broad class of risk functions and flexible constraints, drawing on tools from semiparametric theory and stochastic optimization. Our approach uses incremental interventions to enhance adaptability while maintaining consistency with standard methods. We formulate the target estimand as the optimal solution to a stochastic optimization problem and develop an efficient estimation strategy, where we can leverage rapid development of modern optimization algorithms. We go on to analyze the rates of convergence and characterize the asymptotic distributions. Our analysis shows that the proposed estimators can achieve $\sqrt{n}$-consistency and asymptotic normality for a broad class of problems. Numerical illustrations highlight their effectiveness in adapting to unseen counterfactual scenarios while maintaining parametric convergence rates.

In this paper, we consider nonlinear optimization problems with a stochastic objective and deterministic equality constraints. We propose a Trust-Region Stochastic Sequential Quadratic Programming (TR-SSQP) method and establish its high-probability iteration complexity bounds for identifying first- and second-order $\epsilon$-stationary points. In our algorithm, we assume that exact objective values, gradients, and Hessians are not directly accessible but can be estimated via zeroth-, first-, and second-order probabilistic oracles. Compared to existing complexity studies of SSQP methods that rely on a zeroth-order oracle with sub-exponential tail noise (i.e., light-tailed) and focus mostly on first-order stationarity, our analysis accommodates irreducible and heavy-tailed noise in the zeroth-order oracle and significantly extends the analysis to second-order stationarity. We show that under heavy-tailed noise conditions, our SSQP method achieves the same high-probability first-order iteration complexity bounds as in the light-tailed noise setting, while further exhibiting promising second-order iteration complexity bounds. Specifically, the method identifies a first-order $\epsilon$-stationary point in $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-2})$ iterations and a second-order $\epsilon$-stationary point in $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-3})$ iterations with high probability, provided that $\epsilon$ is lower bounded by a constant determined by the irreducible noise level in estimation. We validate our theoretical findings and evaluate the practical performance of our method on CUTEst benchmark test set.

In recent years, modeling and analysis of interval-valued time series have garnered increasing attention in econometrics, finance, and statistics. However, these studies have predominantly focused on statistical inference in the forecasting of univariate and multivariate interval-valued time series, overlooking another important aspect: classification. In this paper, we introduce a classification approach that treats intervals as unified entities, applicable to both univariate and multivariate interval-valued time series. Specifically, we first extend the point-valued time series imaging methods to interval-valued scenarios using the $D_K$-distance, enabling the imaging of interval-valued time series. Then, we employ suitable deep learning model for classification on the obtained imaging dataset, aiming to achieve classification for interval-valued time series. In theory, we derived a sharper excess risk bound for deep multiclassifiers based on offset Rademacher complexity. Finally, we validate the superiority of the proposed method through comparisons with various existing point-valued time series classification methods in both simulation studies and real data applications.

Recently, linear regression models incorporating an optimal transport (OT) loss have been explored for applications such as supervised unmixing of spectra, music transcription, and mass spectrometry. However, these task-specific approaches often do not generalize readily to a broader class of linear models. In this work, we propose a novel algorithmic framework for solving a general class of non-negative linear regression models with an entropy-regularized OT datafit term, based on Sinkhorn-like scaling iterations. Our framework accommodates convex penalty functions on the weights (e.g. squared-$\ell_2$ and $\ell_1$ norms), and admits additional convex loss terms between the transported marginal and target distribution (e.g. squared error or total variation). We derive simple multiplicative updates for common penalty and datafit terms. This method is suitable for large-scale problems due to its simplicity of implementation and straightforward parallelization.

We study the common continual learning setup where an overparameterized model is sequentially fitted to a set of jointly realizable tasks. We analyze the forgetting, i.e., loss on previously seen tasks, after $k$ iterations. For linear models, we prove that fitting a task is equivalent to a single stochastic gradient descent (SGD) step on a modified objective. We develop novel last-iterate SGD upper bounds in the realizable least squares setup, and apply them to derive new results for continual learning. Focusing on random orderings over $T$ tasks, we establish universal forgetting rates, whereas existing rates depend on the problem dimensionality or complexity. Specifically, in continual regression with replacement, we improve the best existing rate from $O((d-r)/k)$ to $O(\min(k^{-1/4}, \sqrt{d-r}/k, \sqrt{Tr}/k))$, where $d$ is the dimensionality and $r$ the average task rank. Furthermore, we establish the first rates for random task orderings without replacement. The obtained rate of $O(\min(T^{-1/4}, (d-r)/T))$ proves for the first time that randomization alone, with no task repetition, can prevent catastrophic forgetting in sufficiently long task sequences. Finally, we prove a similar $O(k^{-1/4})$ universal rate for the forgetting in continual linear classification on separable data. Our universal rates apply for broader projection methods, such as block Kaczmarz and POCS, illuminating their loss convergence under i.i.d and one-pass orderings.