The ability to determine patient acuity (or severity of illness) has immediate practical use for clinicians. We evaluate the use of multivariate timeseries modeling with the multi-task Gaussian process (GP) models using noisy, incomplete, sparse, heterogeneous and unevenly-sampled clinical data, including both physiological signals and clinical notes. The learned multi-task GP (MTGP) hyperparameters are then used to assess and forecast patient acuity. Experiments were conducted with two real clinical data sets acquired from ICU patients: firstly, estimating cerebrovascular pressure reactivity, an important indicator of secondary damage for traumatic brain injury patients, by learning the interactions between intracranial pressure and mean arterial blood pressure signals, and secondly, mortality prediction using clinical progress notes. In both cases, MTGPs provided improved results: an MTGP model provided better results than single-task GP models for signal interpolation and forecasting (0.91 vs 0.69 RMSE), and the use of MTGP hyperparameters obtained improved results when used as additional classification features (0.812 vs 0.788 AUC).

The expressive power of a Gaussian process (GP) model comes at a cost of poor scalability in the data size. To improve its scalability, this paper presents a low-rank-cum-Markov approximation (LMA) of the GP model that is novel in leveraging the dual computational advantages stemming from complementing a low-rank approximate representation of the full-rank GP based on a support set of inputs with a Markov approximation of the resulting residual process; the latter approximation is guaranteed to be closest in the Kullback-Leibler distance criterion subject to some constraint and is considerably more refined than that of existing sparse GP models utilizing low-rank representations due to its more relaxed conditional independence assumption (especially with larger data). As a result, our LMA method can trade off between the size of the support set and the order of the Markov property to (a) incur lower computational cost than such sparse GP models while achieving predictive performance comparable to them and (b) accurately represent features/patterns of any scale. Interestingly, varying the Markov order produces a spectrum of LMAs with PIC approximation and full-rank GP at the two extremes. An advantage of our LMA method is that it is amenable to parallelization on multiple machines/cores, thereby gaining greater scalability. Empirical evaluation on three real-world datasets in clusters of up to 32 computing nodes shows that our centralized and parallel LMA methods are significantly more time-efficient and scalable than state-of-the-art sparse and full-rank GP regression methods while achieving comparable predictive performances.

Goal recognition design involves the offline analysis of goal recognition models by formulating measures that assess the ability to perform goal recognition within a model and finding efficient ways to compute and optimize them. In this work we present goal recognition design for non-optimal agents, which extends previous work by accounting for agents that behave non-optimally either intentionally or naıvely. The analysis we present includes a new generalized model for goal recognition design and the worst case distinctiveness (wcd) measure. For two special cases of sub-optimal agents we present methods for calculating the wcd, part of which are based on novel compilations to classical planning problems. Our empirical evaluation shows the proposed solutions to be effective in computing and optimizing the wcd.

Scheduling is integral to many real-world logistics problems. It can be as simple as catching the bus in the morning, or as complex as assembling a commercial airliner. While simple applications render scheduling tools trivial, these tools have not been widely adopted for complex scenarios either. The larger the scenario, the greater the temporal uncertainty throughout the system, and many schedulers do not consider the probabilistic uncertainty in actions' durations. Figure 1: The role of scheduling in a plannning and execution This makes them brittle to temporal disturbances or architecture. In this architecture, the planner and scheduler first generate Figure 1 diagrams the layers of reasoning for a planning executive a plan and scheduling policy offline, which the dispatcher to map logistical goals into real-world actions.

Temporal uncertainty in large-scale logistics forces one to trade off between lost efficiency through built-in slack and costly replanning when deadlines are missed. Due to the difficulty of reasoning about such likelihoods and consequences, a computational framework is needed to quantify and bound the risk of violating scheduling requirements. This work addresses the chance-constrained scheduling problem, where actions' durations are modeled probabilistically. Our solution method uses conflict-directed risk allocation to efficiently compute a scheduling policy. The key insight, compared to previous work in probabilistic scheduling, is to decouple the reasoning about temporal and risk constraints. This decomposes the problem into a separate master and subproblem, which can be iteratively solved much quicker. Through a set of simulated car-sharing scenarios, it is empirically shown that conflict-directed risk allocation computes solutions nearly an order of magnitude faster than prior art, which considers all constraints in a single lump-sum optimization.

Programmers are loathe to interrupt their workflow to document their design rationale, leading to frequent errors when software is modified — often much later and by different programmers. A Programmer’s Assistant could interact with the programmer to capture and preserve design rationale, in a natural way that would make rationale capture "cost less than it's worth", and could also detect common flaws in program design. Such a programmer’s assistant was not practical when it was first proposed decades ago, but advances over the years make now the time to revisit the concept, as our prototype shows.

When scheduling tasks for field-deployable systems, our solutions must be robust to the uncertainty inherent in the real world. Although human intuition is trusted to balance reward and risk, humans perform poorly in risk assessment at the scale and complexity of real world problems. In this paper, we present a decision aid system that helps human operators diagnose the source of risk and manage uncertainty in temporal problems. The core of the system is a conflict-directed relaxation algorithm, called Conflict-Directed Chance-constraint Relaxation (CDCR), which specializes in resolving over-constrained temporal problems with probabilistic durations and a chance constraint bounding the risk of failure. Given a temporal problem with uncertain duration, CDCR proposes execution strategies that operate at acceptable risk levels and pinpoints the source of risk. If no such strategy can be found that meets the chance constraint, it can help humans to repair the over-constrained problem by trading off between desirability of solution and acceptable risk levels. The decision aid has been incorporated in a mission advisory system for assisting oceanographers to schedule activities in deep-sea expeditions, and demonstrated its effectiveness in scenarios with realistic uncertainty.

The utilitarian solution criterion, which has been extensively studied in multi-agent decision making under uncertainty, aims to maximize the sum of individual utilities. However, as the utilitarian solution often discriminates against some agents, it is not desirable for many practical applications where agents have their own interests and fairness is expected. To address this issue, this paper introduces egalitarian solution criteria for sequential decision-making under uncertainty, which are based on the maximin principle. Motivated by different application domains, we propose four maximin fairness criteria and develop corresponding algorithms for computing their optimal policies. Furthermore, we analyze the connections between these criteria and discuss and compare their characteristics.

Planning for and controlling a network of interacting devices requires a planner that accounts for the automatic timed transitions of devices, while meeting deadlines and achieving durative goals. Consider a planner for an imaging satellite with a camera that cannot tolerate exhaust. The planner would need to determine that opening a valve causes a chain reaction that ignites the engine, and thus needs to shield the camera. While planners exist that support deadlines and durative goals, currently, no planners can handle automatic timed transitions. We present tBurton, a temporal planner that supports these features, while additionally producing a temporally least-commitment plan. tBurton uses a divide and conquer approach: dividing the problem using causal-graph decomposition and conquering each factor with heuristic forward search. The `sub-plans' from each factor are then unified in a conflict directed search, guided by the causal graph structure. We describe why this approach is fast and efficient, and demonstrate its ability to improve the performance of existing planners on factorable problems through benchmarks from the International Planning Competition.

The majority of machine learning research has been focused on building models and inference techniques with sound mathematical properties and cutting edge performance. Little attention has been devoted to the development of data representation that can be used to improve a user's ability to interpret the data and machine learning models to solve real-world problems. In this paper, we quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate an efficient, accurate and scalable feature-compression method using latent Dirichlet allocation for discrete data. This representation can effectively communicate the characteristics of high-dimensional, complex data points. We show that the improvement of a user's interpretability through the use of a topic modeling-based compression technique is statistically significant, according to a number of metrics, when compared with other representations. Also, we find that this representation is scalable --- it maintains alignment with human classification accuracy as an increasing number of data points are shown. In addition, the learned topic layer can semantically deliver meaningful information to users that could potentially aid human reasoning about data characteristics in connection with compressed topic space.