Scenario planning is a commonly used method by companies to develop their long-term plans. Scenario planning for risk management puts an added emphasis on identifying and managing emerging risk. While a variety of methods have been proposed for this purpose, we show that applying AI planning techniques to devise possible scenarios provides a unique advantage for scenario planning. Our system, the Scenario Planning Advisor (SPA), takes as input the relevant information from news and social media, representing key risk drivers, as well as the domain knowledge and generates scenarios that explain the key risk drivers and describe the alternative futures. To this end, we provide a characterization of the problem, knowledge engineering methodology, and transformation to planning. Furthermore, we describe the computation of the scenarios, lessons learned, and the feedback received from the pilot deployment of the SPA system in IBM.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) helps countries implement the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), an agenda for tackling major societal issues such as poverty, hunger, and environmental degradation by the year 2030. A key service provided by UNDP to countries that seek it is a review of national development plans and sector strategies by policy experts to assess alignment of national targets with one or more of the 169 targets of the 17 SDGs. Known as the Rapid Integrated Assessment (RIA), this process involves manual review of hundreds, if not thousands, of pages of documents and takes weeks to complete. In this work, we develop a natural language processing-based methodology to accelerate the workflow of policy experts. Specifically we use paragraph embedding techniques to find paragraphs in the documents that match the semantic concepts of each of the SDG targets. One novel technical contribution of our work is in our use of historical RIAs from other countries as a form of neighborhood-based supervision for matches in the country under study. We have successfully piloted the algorithm to perform the RIA for Papua New Guinea’s national plan, with the UNDP estimating it will help reduce their completion time from an estimated 3-4 weeks to 3 days.

In this paper, we present UbuntuWorld 1.0 LTS - a platform for developing automated technical support agents in the Ubuntu operating system. Specifically, we propose to use the Bash terminal as a simulator of the Ubuntu environment for a learning-based agent and demonstrate the usefulness of adopting reinforcement learning (RL) techniques for basic problem solving and troubleshooting in this environment. We provide a plug-and-play interface to the simulator as a python package where different types of agents can be plugged in and evaluated, and provide pathways for integrating data from online support forums like Ask Ubuntu into an automated agent’s learning process. Finally, we show that the use of this data significantly improves the agent’s learning efficiency. We believe that this platform can be adopted as a real-world test bed for research on automated technical support.

Plan Recognition is the problem of inferring the goals and plans of an agent given a set of observations. In Multi-Agent Plan Recognition (MAPR) the task is extended to inferring the goals and plans of multiple agents. Previous MAPR approaches have largely focused on recognizing team structures and behaviors, given perfect and complete observations of the actions of individual agents. However, in many real-world applications of MAPR, observations are unreliable or missing; they are often over properties of the world rather than actions; and the observations that are made may not be explainable by the agents' goals and plans. Moreover, the actions of the agents could be durative or concurrent. In this paper, we address the problem of MAPR with temporal actions and with observations that can be unreliable, missing or unexplainable. To this end, we propose a multi-step compilation technique that enables the use of AI planning for the computation of the posterior probabilities of the possible goals. In addition, we propose a set of novel benchmarks that enable a standard evaluation of solutions that address the MAPR problem with temporal actions and such observations. We present results of an experimental evaluation on this set of benchmarks, using several temporal and diverse planners.

The purpose of this paper is to show the expressiveness of two different formalisms that combine logic and probabilistic reasoning: Stochastic Logic Programs (SLPs) and Probabilistic Concurrent Constraint Programs (PCCs). We analyse the relation between the two and we show that we are able to express, using PCC programs, some of the main probabilistic graphical models: Bayesian Networks, Markov random fields, Markov chains, Hidden Markov models, Stochastic Context Free Grammars and Markov Logic Networks. We express this last framework also in SLPs.

Stable matching problems have several practical applications. If preference lists are truncated and contain ties, finding a stable matching with maximal size is computationally difficult. We address this problem using a local search technique, based on Adaptive Search and present experimental evidence that this approach is much more efficient than state-of-the-art exact and approximate methods. Moreover, parallel versions (particularly versions with communication) improve performance so much that very large and hard instances can be solved quickly.

Sequential anomaly detection is a challenging problem due to the one-class nature of the data (i.e., data is collected from only one class) and the temporal dependence in sequential data. We present One-Class Conditional Random Fields (OCCRF) for sequential anomaly detection that learn from a one-class dataset and capture the temporal dependence structure, in an unsupervised fashion. We propose a hinge loss in a regularized risk minimization framework that maximizes the margin between each sequence being classified as "normal" and "abnormal." This allows our model to accept most (but not all) of the training data as normal, yet keeps the solution space tight. Experimental results on a number of real-world datasets show our model outperforming several baselines. We also report an exploratory study on detecting abnormal organizational behavior in enterprise social networks.

Crowdsourced labor markets represent a powerful new paradigm for accomplishing work. Understanding the motivating factors that lead to high quality work could have significant benefits. However, researchers have so far found that motivating factors such as increased monetary reward generally increase workers’ willingness to accept a task or the speed at which a task is completed, but do not improve the quality of the work. We hypothesize that factors that increase the intrinsic motivation of a task – such as framing a task as helping others – may succeed in improving output quality where extrinsic motivators such as increased pay do not. In this paper we present an experiment testing this hypothesis along with a novel experimental design that enables controlled experimentation with intrinsic and extrinsic motivators in Amazon’s Mechanical Turk, a popular crowdsourcing task market. Results suggest that intrinsic motivation can indeed improve the quality of workers’ output, confirming our hypothesis. Furthermore, we find a synergistic interaction between intrinsic and extrinsic motivators that runs contrary to previous literature suggesting “crowding out” effects. Our results have significant practical and theoretical implications for crowd work.