Jointly modeling and forecasting economic and financial variables across a large set of countries has long been a significant challenge. Two primary approaches have been utilized to address this issue: the vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (VARX) and the matrix autoregression (MAR). The VARX model captures domestic dependencies, but treats variables exogenous to represent global factors driven by international trade. In contrast, the MAR model simultaneously considers variables from multiple countries but ignores the trade network. In this paper, we propose an extension of the MAR model that achieves these two aims at once, i.e., studying both international dependencies and the impact of the trade network on the global economy. Additionally, we introduce a sparse component to the model to differentiate between systematic and idiosyncratic cross-predictability. To estimate the model parameters, we propose both a likelihood estimation method and a bias-corrected alternating minimization version. We provide theoretical and empirical analyses of the model's properties, alongside presenting intriguing economic insights derived from our findings.

Normally, these models work by inverting the process of natural diffusion, where they start with a distribution of random noise and progressively transform it into a structured data distribution resembling the training data. This transformation occurs in multiple steps, which incrementally denoise the noisy sample until it reaches the desired complexity and detail. In contrast to the normal diffusion models mentioned above (Song et al. 2022, 2024), which generate synthetic images by denoising random noise distributions without incorporating any specific guidance, our GenMDI model generates a synthetic image considering the previous image and the next image surrounding the generated image. This image generation process with guidance or condition is known as the conditional diffusion process, which is often used in the generation of video frames (Voleti et al. 2022). By conditioning the reverse diffusion process on the previous and subsequent images, GenMDI ensures that the generated image maintains continuity and reflects the dynamics of the surrounding images. This approach not only preserves the natural flow and consistency of MDI time-series magnetograms but also enhances our model's ability to accurately generate synthetic images. To our knowledge, this is the first time a conditional diffusion model has been used to improve the temporal resolution of MDI magnetograms. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes the data used in this study.

We present a transformer model, named DeepHalo, to predict the occurrence of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Our model takes as input an active region (AR) and a profile, where the profile contains a time series of data samples in the AR that are collected 24 hours before the beginning of a day, and predicts whether the AR would produce a halo CME during that day. Each data sample contains physical parameters, or features, derived from photospheric vector magnetic field data taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We survey and match CME events in the Space Weather Database Of Notification, Knowledge, Information (DONKI) and Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) CME Catalog, and compile a list of CMEs including halo CMEs and non-halo CMEs associated with ARs in the period between November 2010 and August 2023. We use the information gathered above to build the labels (positive versus negative) of the data samples and profiles at hand, where the labels are needed for machine learning. Experimental results show that DeepHalo with a true skill statistics (TSS) score of 0.907 outperforms a closely related long short-term memory network with a TSS score of 0.821. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the transformer model has been used for halo CME prediction.

Existing approaches to mathematical reasoning with large language models (LLMs) rely on Chain-of-Thought (CoT) for generalizability or Tool-Integrated Reasoning (TIR) for precise computation. While efforts have been made to combine these methods, they primarily rely on post-selection or predefined strategies, leaving an open question: whether LLMs can autonomously adapt their reasoning strategy based on their inherent capabilities. In this work, we propose TATA (Teaching LLMs According to Their Aptitude), an adaptive framework that enables LLMs to personalize their reasoning strategy spontaneously, aligning it with their intrinsic aptitude. TATA incorporates base-LLM-aware data selection during supervised fine-tuning (SFT) to tailor training data to the model's unique abilities. This approach equips LLMs to autonomously determine and apply the appropriate reasoning strategy at test time. We evaluate TATA through extensive experiments on six mathematical reasoning benchmarks, using both general-purpose and math-specialized LLMs. Empirical results demonstrate that TATA effectively combines the complementary strengths of CoT and TIR, achieving superior or comparable performance with improved inference efficiency compared to TIR alone. Further analysis underscores the critical role of aptitude-aware data selection in enabling LLMs to make effective and adaptive reasoning decisions and align reasoning strategies with model capabilities.

The application of Large Language Models (LLMs) in analog integrated circuit design could pioneer a new era of AI applications in domains traditionally dominated by human expertise. Analog semiconductor chips are the core building blocks in sensing and communication systems. Contrary to digital chip development, where computer-aided design automation has been widely adopted for a few decades, analog design, often perceived more as a craftsmanship than a well-established engineering procedure, relies heavily on the designer's experience and intuition to navigate in the trade space of efficiency, noise, linearity, and speed to meet certain specifications. This domain's depth, requiring a blend of acumen and creativity, underscores the high barriers to entry and the extensive training required to master its intricacies, which exacerbated the critical labor shortfall of the semiconductor industry in this decade [Ravi, 2023]. The advent of AI-assisted design automation in analog circuit design holds considerable promise to tackle the aforementioned challenge. It offers the potential to significantly streamline design cycles, enabling engineers to focus more on strategic, high-level design considerations and the exploration of novel ideas and applications.

We present PRINCIPLE-BASED PROMPTING, a simple but effective multi-agent prompting strategy for text classification. It first asks multiple LLM agents to independently generate candidate principles based on analysis of demonstration samples with or without labels, consolidates them into final principles via a finalizer agent, and then sends them to a classifier agent to perform downstream classification tasks. Extensive experiments on binary and multi-class classification datasets with different sizes of LLMs show that our approach not only achieves substantial performance gains (1.55% - 19.37%) over zero-shot prompting on macro-F1 score but also outperforms other strong baselines (CoT and stepback prompting). Principles generated by our approach help LLMs perform better on classification tasks than human crafted principles on two private datasets. Our multi-agent PRINCIPLE-BASED PROMPTING approach also shows on-par or better performance compared to demonstration-based few-shot prompting approaches, yet with substantially lower inference costs. Ablation studies show that label information and the multi-agent cooperative LLM framework play an important role in generating high-quality principles to facilitate downstream classification tasks.

Generalizable long-horizon robotic assembly requires reasoning at multiple levels of abstraction. End-to-end imitation learning (IL) has been proven a promising approach, but it requires a large amount of demonstration data for training and often fails to meet the high-precision requirement of assembly tasks. Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches have succeeded in high-precision assembly tasks, but suffer from sample inefficiency and hence, are less competent at long-horizon tasks. To address these challenges, we propose a hierarchical modular approach, named ARCH (Adaptive Robotic Composition Hierarchy), which enables long-horizon high-precision assembly in contact-rich settings. ARCH employs a hierarchical planning framework, including a low-level primitive library of continuously parameterized skills and a high-level policy. The low-level primitive library includes essential skills for assembly tasks, such as grasping and inserting. These primitives consist of both RL and model-based controllers. The high-level policy, learned via imitation learning from a handful of demonstrations, selects the appropriate primitive skills and instantiates them with continuous input parameters. We extensively evaluate our approach on a real robot manipulation platform. We show that while trained on a single task, ARCH generalizes well to unseen tasks and outperforms baseline methods in terms of success rate and data efficiency. Videos can be found at https://long-horizon-assembly.github.io.

Southeast Asia (SEA) is a region rich in linguistic diversity and cultural variety, with over 1,300 indigenous languages and a population of 671 million people. However, prevailing AI models suffer from a significant lack of representation of texts, images, and audio datasets from SEA, compromising the quality of AI models for SEA languages. Evaluating models for SEA languages is challenging due to the scarcity of high-quality datasets, compounded by the dominance of English training data, raising concerns about potential cultural misrepresentation. To address these challenges, we introduce SEACrowd, a collaborative initiative that consolidates a comprehensive resource hub that fills the resource gap by providing standardized corpora in nearly 1,000 SEA languages across three modalities. Through our SEACrowd benchmarks, we assess the quality of AI models on 36 indigenous languages across 13 tasks, offering valuable insights into the current AI landscape in SEA. Furthermore, we propose strategies to facilitate greater AI advancements, maximizing potential utility and resource equity for the future of AI in SEA.

This paper aims to explore the application of machine learning in forecasting Chinese macroeconomic variables. Specifically, it employs various machine learning models to predict the quarterly real GDP growth of China, and analyzes the factors contributing to the performance differences among these models. Our findings indicate that the average forecast errors of machine learning models are generally lower than those of traditional econometric models or expert forecasts, particularly in periods of economic stability. However, during certain inflection points, although machine learning models still outperform traditional econometric models, expert forecasts may exhibit greater accuracy in some instances due to experts' more comprehensive understanding of the macroeconomic environment and real-time economic variables. In addition to macroeconomic forecasting, this paper employs interpretable machine learning methods to identify the key attributive variables from different machine learning models, aiming to enhance the understanding and evaluation of their contributions to macroeconomic fluctuations.

Facial expression recognition (FER) plays a significant role in our daily life. However, annotation ambiguity in the datasets could greatly hinder the performance. In this paper, we address FER task via label distribution learning paradigm, and develop a dual-branch Adaptive Distribution Fusion (Ada-DF) framework. One auxiliary branch is constructed to obtain the label distributions of samples. The class distributions of emotions are then computed through the label distributions of each emotion. Finally, those two distributions are adaptively fused according to the attention weights to train the target branch. Extensive experiments are conducted on three real-world datasets, RAF-DB, AffectNet and SFEW, where our Ada-DF shows advantages over the state-of-the-art works.