Residential Load Profile (RLP) generation and prediction are critical for the operation and planning of distribution networks, especially as diverse low-carbon technologies (e.g., photovoltaic and electric vehicles) are increasingly adopted. This paper introduces a novel flow-based generative model, termed Full Convolutional Profile Flow (FCPFlow), which is uniquely designed for both conditional and unconditional RLP generation, and for probabilistic load forecasting. By introducing two new layers--the invertible linear layer and the invertible normalization layer--the proposed FCPFlow architecture shows three main advantages compared to traditional statistical and contemporary deep generative models: 1) it is well-suited for RLP generation under continuous conditions, such as varying weather and annual electricity consumption, 2) it demonstrates superior scalability in different datasets compared to traditional statistical models, and 3) it also demonstrates better modeling capabilities in capturing the complex correlation of RLPs compared with deep generative models.

We introduce RakutenAI-7B, a suite of Japanese-oriented large language models that achieve the best performance on the Japanese LM Harness benchmarks among the open 7B models. Along with the foundation model, we release instruction- and chat-tuned models, RakutenAI-7B-instruct and RakutenAI-7B-chat respectively, under the Apache 2.0 license.

Pre-training image representations from the raw text about images enables zero-shot vision transfer to downstream tasks. Through pre-training on millions of samples collected from the internet, multimodal foundation models, such as CLIP, produce state-of-the-art zero-shot results that often reach competitiveness with fully supervised methods without the need for task-specific training. Besides the encouraging performance on classification accuracy, it is reported that these models close the robustness gap by matching the performance of supervised models trained on ImageNet under natural distribution shift. Because robustness is critical to real-world applications, especially safety-critical ones, in this paper, we present a comprehensive evaluation based on a large-scale robustness benchmark covering 7 natural, 3 synthetic distribution shifts, and 11 adversarial attacks. We use CLIP as a pilot study. We show that CLIP leads to a significant robustness drop compared to supervised ImageNet models on our benchmark, especially under synthetic distribution shift and adversarial attacks. Furthermore, data overlap analysis suggests that the observed robustness under natural distribution shifts could be attributed, at least in part, to data overlap. In summary, our evaluation shows a comprehensive evaluation of robustness is necessary; and there is a significant need to improve the robustness of zero-shot multimodal models.

This paper presents a novel approach to task grouping in Multitask Learning (MTL), advancing beyond existing methods by addressing key theoretical and practical limitations. Unlike prior studies, our approach offers a more theoretically grounded method that does not rely on restrictive assumptions for constructing transfer gains. We also propose a flexible mathematical programming formulation which can accommodate a wide spectrum of resource constraints, thus enhancing its versatility. Experimental results across diverse domains, including computer vision datasets, combinatorial optimization benchmarks and time series tasks, demonstrate the superiority of our method over extensive baselines, validating its effectiveness and general applicability in MTL.

Learning utility, or reward, models from pairwise comparisons is a fundamental component in a number of application domains. These approaches inherently entail collecting preference information from people, with feedback often provided anonymously. Since preferences are subjective, there is no gold standard to compare against; yet, reliance of high-impact systems on preference learning creates a strong motivation for malicious actors to skew data collected in this fashion to their ends. We investigate the nature and extent of this vulnerability systematically by considering a threat model in which an attacker can flip a small subset of preference comparisons with the goal of either promoting or demoting a target outcome. First, we propose two classes of algorithmic approaches for these attacks: a principled gradient-based framework, and several variants of rank-by-distance methods. Next, we demonstrate the efficacy of best attacks in both these classes in successfully achieving malicious goals on datasets from three diverse domains: autonomous control, recommendation system, and textual prompt-response preference learning. We find that the best attacks are often highly successful, achieving in the most extreme case 100% success rate with only 0.3% of the data poisoned. However, which attack is best can vary significantly across domains, demonstrating the value of our comprehensive vulnerability analysis that involves several classes of attack algorithms. In addition, we observe that the simpler and more scalable rank-by-distance approaches are often competitive with the best, and on occasion significantly outperform gradient-based methods. Finally, we show that several state-of-the-art defenses against other classes of poisoning attacks exhibit, at best, limited efficacy in our setting.

When a damaging earthquake occurs, immediate information about casualties is critical for time-sensitive decision-making by emergency response and aid agencies in the first hours and days. Systems such as Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) were developed to provide a forecast within about 30 minutes of any significant earthquake globally. Traditional systems for estimating human loss in disasters often depend on manually collected early casualty reports from global media, a process that's labor-intensive and slow with notable time delays. Recently, some systems have employed keyword matching and topic modeling to extract relevant information from social media. However, these methods struggle with the complex semantics in multilingual texts and the challenge of interpreting ever-changing, often conflicting reports of death and injury numbers from various unverified sources on social media platforms. In this work, we introduce an end-to-end framework to significantly improve the timeliness and accuracy of global earthquake-induced human loss forecasting using multi-lingual, crowdsourced social media. Our framework integrates (1) a hierarchical casualty extraction model built upon large language models, prompt design, and few-shot learning to retrieve quantitative human loss claims from social media, (2) a physical constraint-aware, dynamic-truth discovery model that discovers the truthful human loss from massive noisy and potentially conflicting human loss claims, and (3) a Bayesian updating loss projection model that dynamically updates the final loss estimation using discovered truths. We test the framework in real-time on a series of global earthquake events in 2021 and 2022 and show that our framework streamlines casualty data retrieval, achieving speed and accuracy comparable to manual methods by USGS.

We conduct a comparison under the same number of training epochs by training our method on 12 tasks mentioned before for 1000 epochs in total, and comparing them with corresponding Single Task Learning (STL) neural solvers that are trained for 1000 epochs on each of their respective tasks. This is, by no means, a fair comparison, as our method dynamically chooses a task to train for 1000 epochs, resulting in a much smaller sample size than each task when using STL. Despite this, we choose this comparison as an intuitive way to demonstrate the superior generalization ability of our method under such extreme conditions. We present the results in Figure 2. Compared to individual tasks, our method's comparative performance is to be expected due to the vast differences in sample size. In most cases, our method's performance is equivalent to that of using 100 to 200 epochs of STL. However, STL can only obtain one model in this context and lacks the ability to handle different types of COPs or to generalize well when presented with the same type of COP but with varying problem scales. As a result, our method demonstrates unparalleled superiority in three ways: (1) when considering the average performance on all problem scales for each type of COP, our method obtains the best results in CVRP, OP, and KP, and is equivalent to the results achieved by training TSP for about 500 epochs. This showcases our method's excellent generalization ability for problem scales; (2) Our method can handle various types of COPs under the same number of training epochs, which is impossible for STL due to the existence of task-specific modules; (3) Our method's training time is strictly shorter than the longest time-consuming task.

We introduce a method to improve the zero-shot reasoning abilities of large language models on general language understanding tasks. Specifically, we build an autonomous agent to instruct the reasoning process of large language models. We show this approach further unleashes the zero-shot reasoning abilities of large language models to more tasks. We study the performance of our method on a wide set of datasets spanning generation, classification, and reasoning. We show that our method generalizes to most tasks and obtains state-of-the-art zero-shot performance on 20 of the 29 datasets that we evaluate. For instance, our method boosts the performance of state-of-the-art large language models by a large margin, including Vicuna-13b (13.3%), Llama-2-70b-chat (23.2%), and GPT-3.5 Turbo (17.0%). Compared to zero-shot chain of thought, our improvement in reasoning is striking, with an average increase of 10.5%. With our method, Llama-2-70b-chat outperforms zero-shot GPT-3.5 Turbo by 10.2%.

Timely and accurate assessment of hurricane-induced building damage is crucial for effective post-hurricane response and recovery efforts. Recently, remote sensing technologies provide large-scale optical or Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) imagery data immediately after a disastrous event, which can be readily used to conduct rapid building damage assessment. Compared to optical satellite imageries, the Synthetic Aperture Radar can penetrate cloud cover and provide more complete spatial coverage of damaged zones in various weather conditions. However, these InSAR imageries often contain highly noisy and mixed signals induced by co-occurring or co-located building damage, flood, flood/wind-induced vegetation changes, as well as anthropogenic activities, making it challenging to extract accurate building damage information. In this paper, we introduced an approach for rapid post-hurricane building damage detection from InSAR imagery. This approach encoded complex causal dependencies among wind, flood, building damage, and InSAR imagery using a holistic causal Bayesian network. Based on the causal Bayesian network, we further jointly inferred the large-scale unobserved building damage by fusing the information from InSAR imagery with prior physical models of flood and wind, without the need for ground truth labels. Furthermore, we validated our estimation results in a real-world devastating hurricane -- the 2022 Hurricane Ian. We gathered and annotated building damage ground truth data in Lee County, Florida, and compared the introduced method's estimation results with the ground truth and benchmarked it against state-of-the-art models to assess the effectiveness of our proposed method. Results show that our method achieves rapid and accurate detection of building damage, with significantly reduced processing time compared to traditional manual inspection methods.

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) aim to infer whether a data point has been used to train a machine learning model. These attacks can be employed to identify potential privacy vulnerabilities and detect unauthorized use of personal data. While MIAs have been traditionally studied for simple classification models, recent advancements in multi-modal pre-training, such as CLIP, have demonstrated remarkable zero-shot performance across a range of computer vision tasks. However, the sheer scale of data and models presents significant computational challenges for performing the attacks. This paper takes a first step towards developing practical MIAs against large-scale multi-modal models. We introduce a simple baseline strategy by thresholding the cosine similarity between text and image features of a target point and propose further enhancing the baseline by aggregating cosine similarity across transformations of the target. We also present a new weakly supervised attack method that leverages ground-truth non-members (e.g., obtained by using the publication date of a target model and the timestamps of the open data) to further enhance the attack. Our evaluation shows that CLIP models are susceptible to our attack strategies, with our simple baseline achieving over $75\%$ membership identification accuracy. Furthermore, our enhanced attacks outperform the baseline across multiple models and datasets, with the weakly supervised attack demonstrating an average-case performance improvement of $17\%$ and being at least $7$X more effective at low false-positive rates. These findings highlight the importance of protecting the privacy of multi-modal foundational models, which were previously assumed to be less susceptible to MIAs due to less overfitting. Our code is available at https://github.com/ruoxi-jia-group/CLIP-MIA.