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 Veloso, Manuela M.


Negotiated Learning for Smart Grid Agents: Entity Selection based on Dynamic Partially Observable Features

AAAI Conferences

An attractive approach to managing electricity demand in the Smart Grid relies on real-time pricing (RTP) tariffs, where customers are incentivized to quickly adapt to changes in the cost of supply. However, choosing amongst competitive RTP tariffs is difficult when tariff prices change rapidly. The problem is further complicated when we assume that the price changes for a tariff are published in real-time only to those customers who are currently subscribed to that tariff, thus making the prices partially observable. We present models and learning algorithms for autonomous agents that can address the tariff selection problem on behalf of customers. We introduce 'Negotiated Learning', a general algorithm that enables a self-interested sequential decision-making agent to periodically select amongst a variable set of 'entities' (e.g., tariffs) by negotiating with other agents in the environment to gather information about dynamic partially observable entity 'features' (e.g., tariff prices) that affect the entity selection decision. We also contribute a formulation of the tariff selection problem as a 'Negotiable Entity Selection Process', a novel representation. We support our contributions with intuitive justification and simulation experiments based on real data on an open Smart Grid simulation platform.  


Factored Models for Multiscale Decision-Making in Smart Grid Customers

AAAI Conferences

Active participation of customers in the management of demand, and renewable energy supply, is a critical goal of the Smart Grid vision. However, this is a complex problem with numerous scenarios that are difficult to test in field projects. Rich and scalable simulations are required to develop effective strategies and policies that elicit desirable behavior from customers. We present a versatile agent-based "factored model" that enables rich simulation scenarios across distinct customer types and varying agent granularity. We formally characterize the decisions to be made by Smart Grid customers as a multiscale decision-making problem and show how our factored model representation handles several temporal and contextual decisions by introducing a novel "utility optimizing agent." We further contribute innovative algorithms for (i) statistical learning-based hierarchical Bayesian timeseries simulation, and (ii) adaptive capacity control using decision-theoretic approximation of multiattribute utility functions over multiple agents. Prominent among the approaches being studied to achieve active customer participation is one based on offering customers financial incentives through variable-price tariffs; we also contribute an effective solution to the problem of "customer herding" under such tariffs. We support our contributions with experimental results from simulations based on real-world data on an open Smart Grid simulation platform.


Short-Sighted Stochastic Shortest Path Problems

AAAI Conferences

Two extreme approaches can be applied to solve a probabilistic planning problem, namely closed loop algorithms and open loop (a.k.a. replanning) algorithms. While closed loop algorithms invest significant computational effort to generate a closed form solution, open loop algorithms compute open form solutions and interact with the environment in order to refine the computed solution. In this paper, we introduce short-sighted Stochastic Shortest Path (SSP), a new model in which solutions computed based on it can be executed for at least t steps as a closed form solution. Using short-sighted SSPs, we present a novel probabilistic planner called Short-sighted Open Loop Planner (SOLP) that bridges the gap between open and closed loop planners by varying the parameter t: as t increases, more actions can be executed without replanning and, for t sufficiently large, a closed form solution is obtained. We prove that SOLP is asymptotically optimal. To the best of our knowledge, SOLP is the unique probabilistic planner that at the same time provides both replanning and optimality guarantees. We empirically compare SOLP with the winners of the previous probabilistic planning competitions and SOLP outperforms all of them in 33.3% of the problems and ties with the best planner in 48.3% of the problems.


Learned Behaviors of Multiple Autonomous Agents in Smart Grid Markets

AAAI Conferences

One proposed approach to managing a large complex Smart Grid is through Broker Agents who buy electrical power from distributed producers, and also sell power to consumers, via a Tariff Market--a new market mechanism where Broker Agents publish concurrent bid and ask prices. A key challenge is the specification of the market strategy that the Broker Agents should use in order to earn profits while maintaining the market's balance of supply and demand. Interestingly, previous work has shown that a Broker Agent can learn its strategy, using Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and Q-learning, and outperform other Broker Agents that use predetermined or randomized strategies. In this work, we investigate the more representative scenario in which multiple Broker Agents, instead of a single one, are independently learning their strategies. Using a simulation environment based on real data, we find that Broker Agents who employ periodic increases in exploration achieve higher rewards. We also find that varying levels of market dominance in customer allocation models result in remarkably distinct outcomes in market prices and aggregate Broker Agent rewards. The latter set of results can be explained by established economic principles regarding the emergence of monopolies in market-based competition, further validating our approach.


A Report on the IJCAI-07 Program

AI Magazine

By early July, each paper had been assigned to one supervisor SPC member and one PC member. The algorithm recorded the justifications for each assignment in terms of the specific bid and keyword match. When completed, the reviews were and Its Benefits to Society." The tutorial program was Hyderabad, India, January 6-12, 2007. At the chaired by Cynthia Braezeal. More The theme of the conference was "AI Figure 2 shows the distribution of their course work.


CMRoboBits: Creating an Intelligent AIBO Robot

AI Magazine

CMRoboBits is a course offered at Carnegie Mellon University that introduces students to all the concepts needed to create a complete intelligent robot. This course shows how an AIBO and its software resources make it possible for students to investigate and work with an unusually broad variety of AI topics within a single semester. While material presented in this article describes using AIBOs as the primary platform, the concepts presented in the course are not unique to the AIBO and can be applied on different kinds of robotic hardware.


CMRoboBits: Creating an Intelligent AIBO Robot

AI Magazine

This homework introduces students the material in the course. For the written component to the concept of human/robot interaction of this homework, students have to and learning on a real robot. The students manually calculate a posterior probability of program their AIBOs to play a guessing game the robot's position given a uniform prior distribution by which one player (either the human or the of robot poses in a grid world. AIBO) guesses a sequence of colored markers Mounting a Charging Station. Students use the that the other player (AIBO or human, respectively) object-detection code written in previous makes up ahead of time. The AIBO communicates homework assignments to find a colored bull'seye to the human by a predefined set of and tower beacon. These two landmarks allow the robot to compute the distance and orientation motions. When guessing the colored sequence, of a charging station. The robot needs the AIBO has to reason about the patterns of to search for and then climb onto the charging the colors as well as about the clues given to it station.


The Twentieth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence

AI Magazine

The Twentieth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence was held July 9-13, 2005, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The conference, which marked the twenty-fifth anniversary of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), received 803 submissions to the technical program. All papers were double-blind reviewed, and 150 papers were accepted for oral presentation, while 79 papers were accepted for poster presentation. The keynote address was delivered by Marvin Minsky.


The Twentieth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence

AI Magazine

The Twentieth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence was held July 9-13, 2005, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The conference, which marked the twenty-fifth anniversary of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), received 803 submissions to the technical program. All papers were double-blind reviewed, and 150 papers were accepted for oral presentation, while 79 papers were accepted for poster presentation. The keynote address was delivered by Marvin Minsky.


RoboCup-2001: The Fifth Robotic Soccer World Championships

AI Magazine

RoboCup-2001 was the Fifth International RoboCup Competition and Conference. It was held for the first time in the United States, following RoboCup-2000 in Melbourne, Australia; RoboCup-99 in Stockholm; RoboCup-98 in Paris; and RoboCup-97 in Osaka.