Scenario planning is a commonly used method by companies to develop their long-term plans. Scenario planning for risk management puts an added emphasis on identifying and managing emerging risk. While a variety of methods have been proposed for this purpose, we show that applying AI planning techniques to devise possible scenarios provides a unique advantage for scenario planning. Our system, the Scenario Planning Advisor (SPA), takes as input the relevant information from news and social media, representing key risk drivers, as well as the domain knowledge and generates scenarios that explain the key risk drivers and describe the alternative futures. To this end, we provide a characterization of the problem, knowledge engineering methodology, and transformation to planning. Furthermore, we describe the computation of the scenarios, lessons learned, and the feedback received from the pilot deployment of the SPA system in IBM.

Imagining the future helps anticipate and prepare for what is coming. This has great importance to many, if not all, human endeavors. In this paper, we develop the Planning Projector system prototype, which applies plan-recognition-as-planning technique to both explain the observations derived from analyzing relevant news and social media, and project a range of possible future state trajectories for human review. Unlike the plan recognition problem, where a set of goals, and often a plan library must be given as part of the input, the Planning Projector system takes as input the domain knowledge, a sequence of observations derived from the news, a time horizon, and the number of trajectories to produce. It then computes the set of trajectories by applying a planner capable of finding a set of high-quality plans on a transformed planning problem. The Planning Projector prototype integrates several components including: (1) knowledge engineering: the process of encoding the domain knowledge from domain experts; (2) data transformation: the problem of analyzing and transforming the raw data into a sequence of observations; (3) trajectory computation: characterizing the future state projection problem and computing a set of trajectories; (4) user interface: clustering and visualizing the trajectories. We evaluate our approach qualitatively and conclude that the Planning Projector helps users understand future possibilities so that they can make more informed decisions.

In this paper we apply AI planning to address the hypothesis exploration problem and provide assistance to network administrators in detecting malware based on unreliable observations derived from network traffic.Building on the already established characterization and use of AI planning for similar problems, we propose a formulation of the hypothesis generation problem for malware detection as an AI planning problem with temporally extended goals and actions costs. Furthermore, we propose a notion of hypothesis ``plausibility'' under unreliable observations, which we model as plan quality. We then show that in the presence of unreliable observations, simply finding one most ``plausible'' hypothesis, although challenging, is not sufficient for effective malware detection. To that end, we propose a method for applying a state-of-the-art planner within a principled exploration process, to generate multiple distinct high-quality plans. We experimentally evaluate this approach by generating random problems of varying hardness both with respect to the number of observations, as well as the degree of unreliability. Based on these experiments, we argue that our approach presents a significant improvement over prior work that are focused on finding a single optimal plan, and that our hypothesis exploration application can motivate the development of new planners capable of generating the top high-quality plans.

Goal-driven automated composition of software components is an important problem with applications in Web service composition and stream processing systems. The popular approach to address this problem is to build the composition automatically using Artificial Intelligence planning. However, it is shown that some of these popular planning approaches may neither be feasible nor scalable for many real large-scale flow-based applications. Recent advances have proven that the automated composition problem can take advantage of expert knowledge restricting the ways in which different reusable components can be composed. This knowledge can be represented using an extensible composition template or pattern. In prior work, a flow pattern language called Cascade and its corresponding specialized planner have shown the best performance in these domains. In this paper, we propose to address this problem using Hierarchical Task Network (HTN) planning. To this end, we propose an automated approach of creating an HTN-based problem from the Cascade representation of the flow patterns. The resulting technique not only allows us to use the HTN planning paradigm and its many advantages including added expressivity but also enables optimization and customization of composition with respect to preferences and constraints. Further, we propose and develop a lookahead heuristic and show that it significantly reduces the planning time. We have performed extensive experimentation in the context of the stream processing application and evaluated applicability and performance of our approach.