Turgut, Damla
Smart Home Energy Management: VAE-GAN synthetic dataset generator and Q-learning
Razghandi, Mina, Zhou, Hao, Erol-Kantarci, Melike, Turgut, Damla
Recent years have noticed an increasing interest among academia and industry towards analyzing the electrical consumption of residential buildings and employing smart home energy management systems (HEMS) to reduce household energy consumption and costs. HEMS has been developed to simulate the statistical and functional properties of actual smart grids. Access to publicly available datasets is a major challenge in this type of research. The potential of artificial HEMS applications will be further enhanced with the development of time series that represent different operating conditions of the synthetic systems. In this paper, we propose a novel variational auto-encoder-generative adversarial network (VAE-GAN) technique for generating time-series data on energy consumption in smart homes. We also explore how the generative model performs when combined with a Q-learning-based HEMS. We tested the online performance of Q-learning-based HEMS with real-world smart home data. To test the generated dataset, we measure the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), and the Wasserstein distance between the probability distributions of the real and synthetic data. Our experiments show that VAE-GAN-generated synthetic data closely matches the real data distribution. Finally, we show that the generated data allows for the training of a higher-performance Q-learning-based HEMS compared to datasets generated with baseline approaches.
Predicting infections in the Covid-19 pandemic -- lessons learned
Zehtabian, Sharare, Khodadadeh, Siavash, Turgut, Damla, Bölöni, Ladislau
Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, a significant amount of effort had been put into developing techniques that predict the number of infections under various assumptions about the public policy and non-pharmaceutical interventions. While both the available data and the sophistication of the AI models and available computing power exceed what was available in previous years, the overall success of prediction approaches was very limited. In this paper, we start from prediction algorithms proposed for XPrize Pandemic Response Challenge and consider several directions that might allow their improvement. Then, we investigate their performance over medium-term predictions extending over several months. We find that augmenting the algorithms with additional information about the culture of the modeled region, incorporating traditional compartmental models and up-to-date deep learning architectures can improve the performance for short term predictions, the accuracy of medium-term predictions is still very low and a significant amount of future research is needed to make such models a reliable component of a public policy toolbox.
Two Algorithms for the Movements of Robotic Bodyguard Teams
Bhatia, Taranjeet Singh (University of Central Florida) | Solmaz, Gurkan (University of Central Florida) | Turgut, Damla (University of Central Florida) | Boloni, Ladislau (University of Central Florida)
In this paper we consider a scenario where one or more robotic bodyguards are protecting an important individual (VIP) moving in a public space against harassment or harm from unarmed civilians. In this scenario, the main objective of the robots is to position themselves such that at any given moment they provide maximum physical cover for the VIP. The robots need to follow the VIP in its movement and take into account the movements of the civilians as well. The environment can also contain obstacles which present challenges to movement but also provide natural cover. We designed two algorithms for the movement of the bodyguard robots: Threat Vector Resolution (TVR) for a single robot and Quadrant Load Balancing (QLB) for teams of bodyguard robots. We evaluated the proposed approaches against rigid formations in a simulation study.