In today's digital age, conspiracies and information campaigns can emerge rapidly and erode social and democratic cohesion. While recent deep learning approaches have made progress in modeling engagement through language and propagation models, they struggle with irregularly sampled data and early trajectory assessment. We present IC-Mamba, a novel state space model that forecasts social media engagement by modeling interval-censored data with integrated temporal embeddings. Our model excels at predicting engagement patterns within the crucial first 15-30 minutes of posting (RMSE 0.118-0.143), enabling rapid assessment of content reach. By incorporating interval-censored modeling into the state space framework, IC-Mamba captures fine-grained temporal dynamics of engagement growth, achieving a 4.72% improvement over state-of-the-art across multiple engagement metrics (likes, shares, comments, and emojis). Our experiments demonstrate IC-Mamba's effectiveness in forecasting both post-level dynamics and broader narrative patterns (F1 0.508-0.751 for narrative-level predictions). The model maintains strong predictive performance across extended time horizons, successfully forecasting opinion-level engagement up to 28 days ahead using observation windows of 3-10 days. These capabilities enable earlier identification of potentially problematic content, providing crucial lead time for designing and implementing countermeasures. Code is available at: https://github.com/ltian678/ic-mamba. An interactive dashboard demonstrating our results is available at: https://ic-mamba.behavioral-ds.science.

We apply causal mediation analysis to explain the decision-making process of neural models for rumour detection on Twitter. Interventions at the input and network level reveal the causal impacts of tweets and words in the model output. We find that our approach CMA-R -- Causal Mediation Analysis for Rumour detection -- identifies salient tweets that explain model predictions and show strong agreement with human judgements for critical tweets determining the truthfulness of stories. CMA-R can further highlight causally impactful words in the salient tweets, providing another layer of interpretability and transparency into these blackbox rumour detection systems. Code is available at: https://github.com/ltian678/cma-r.

Opinion summarisation is a task that aims to condense the information presented in the source documents while retaining the core message and opinions. A summary that only represents the majority opinions will leave the minority opinions unrepresented in the summary. In this paper, we use the stance towards a certain target as an opinion. We study bias in opinion summarisation from the perspective of opinion diversity, which measures whether the model generated summary can cover a diverse set of opinions. In addition, we examine opinion similarity, a measure of how closely related two opinions are in terms of their stance on a given topic, and its relationship with opinion diversity. Through the lens of stances towards a topic, we examine opinion diversity and similarity using three debatable topics under COVID-19. Experimental results on these topics revealed that a higher degree of similarity of opinions did not indicate good diversity or fairly cover the various opinions originally presented in the source documents. We found that BART and ChatGPT can better capture diverse opinions presented in the source documents.

State-sponsored trolls are the main actors of influence campaigns on social media and automatic troll detection is important to combat misinformation at scale. Existing troll detection models are developed based on training data for known campaigns (e.g.\ the influence campaign by Russia's Internet Research Agency on the 2016 US Election), and they fall short when dealing with {\em novel} campaigns with new targets. We propose MetaTroll, a text-based troll detection model based on the meta-learning framework that enables high portability and parameter-efficient adaptation to new campaigns using only a handful of labelled samples for few-shot transfer. We introduce \textit{campaign-specific} transformer adapters to MetaTroll to ``memorise'' campaign-specific knowledge so as to tackle catastrophic forgetting, where a model ``forgets'' how to detect trolls from older campaigns due to continual adaptation. Our experiments demonstrate that MetaTroll substantially outperforms baselines and state-of-the-art few-shot text classification models. Lastly, we explore simple approaches to extend MetaTroll to multilingual and multimodal detection. Source code for MetaTroll is available at: https://github.com/ltian678/metatroll-code.git.

Dynamic time warping (DTW) is a fundamental technique in time series analysis for comparing one curve to another using a flexible time-warping function. However, it was designed to compare a single pair of curves. In many applications, such as in metabolomics and image series analysis, alignment is simultaneously needed for multiple pairs. Because the underlying warping functions are often related, independent application of DTW to each pair is a sub-optimal solution. Yet, it is largely unknown how to efficiently conduct a joint alignment with all warping functions simultaneously considered, since any given warping function is constrained by the others and dynamic programming cannot be applied. In this paper, we show that the joint alignment problem can be transformed into a network flow problem and thus can be exactly and efficiently solved by the max flow algorithm, with a guarantee of global optimality. We name the proposed approach graphical time warping (GTW), emphasizing the graphical nature of the solution and that the dependency structure of the warping functions can be represented by a graph. Modifications of DTW, such as windowing and weighting, are readily derivable within GTW. We also discuss optimal tuning of parameters and hyperparameters in GTW. We illustrate the power of GTW using both synthetic data and a real case study of an astrocyte calcium movie.