Clinical researchers use disease progression modeling algorithms to predict future patient status and characterize progression patterns. One approach for disease progression modeling is to describe patient status using a small number of states that represent distinctive distributions over a set of observed measures. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and its variants are a class of models that both discover these states and make predictions concerning future states for new patients. HMMs can be trained using longitudinal observations of subjects from large-scale cohort studies, clinical trials, and electronic health records. Despite the advantages of using the algorithms for discovering interesting patterns, it still remains challenging for medical experts to interpret model outputs, complex modeling parameters, and clinically make sense of the patterns. To tackle this problem, we conducted a design study with physician scientists, statisticians, and visualization experts, with the goal to investigate disease progression pathways of certain chronic diseases, namely type 1 diabetes (T1D), Huntington's disease, Parkinson's disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). As a result, we introduce DPVis which seamlessly integrates model parameters and outcomes of HMMs into interpretable, and interactive visualizations. In this study, we demonstrate that DPVis is successful in evaluating disease progression models, visually summarizing disease states, interactively exploring disease progression patterns, and designing and comparing clinically relevant subgroup cohorts by introducing a case study on observation data from clinical studies of T1D.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a chronic disease that often results in multiple complications. Risk prediction and profiling of T2DM complications is critical for healthcare professionals to design personalized treatment plans for patients in diabetes care for improved outcomes. In this paper, we study the risk of developing complications after the initial T2DM diagnosis from longitudinal patient records. We propose a novel multi-task learning approach to simultaneously model multiple complications where each task corresponds to the risk modeling of one complication. Specifically, the proposed method strategically captures the relationships (1) between the risks of multiple T2DM complications, (2) between the different risk factors, and (3) between the risk factor selection patterns. The method uses coefficient shrinkage to identify an informative subset of risk factors from high-dimensional data, and uses a hierarchical Bayesian framework to allow domain knowledge to be incorporated as priors. The proposed method is favorable for healthcare applications because in additional to improved prediction performance, relationships among the different risks and risk factors are also identified. Extensive experimental results on a large electronic medical claims database show that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art models by a significant margin. Furthermore, we show that the risk associations learned and the risk factors identified lead to meaningful clinical insights.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a chronic disease that usually results in multiple complications. Early identification of individuals at risk for complications after being diagnosed with T2DM is of significant clinical value. In this paper, we present a new data-driven predictive approach to predict when a patient will develop complications after the initial T2DM diagnosis. We propose a novel survival analysis method to model the time-to-event of T2DM complications designed to simultaneously achieve two important metrics: 1) accurate prediction of event times, and 2) good ranking of the relative risks of two patients. Moreover, to better capture the correlations of time-to-events of the multiple complications, we further develop a multi-task version of the survival model. To assess the performance of these approaches, we perform extensive experiments on patient level data extracted from a large electronic health record claims database. The results show that our new proposed survival analysis approach consistently outperforms traditional survival models and demonstrate the effectiveness of the multi-task framework over modeling each complication independently.

The rapid growth of Electronic Health Records (EHRs), as well as the accompanied opportunities in Data-Driven Healthcare (DDH), has been attracting widespread interests and attentions. Recent progress in the design and applications of deep learning methods has shown promising results and is forcing massive changes in healthcare academia and industry, but most of these methods rely on massive labeled data. In this work, we propose a general deep learning framework which is able to boost risk prediction performance with limited EHR data. Our model takes a modified generative adversarial network namely ehrGAN, which can provide plausible labeled EHR data by mimicking real patient records, to augment the training dataset in a semi-supervised learning manner. We use this generative model together with a convolutional neural network (CNN) based prediction model to improve the onset prediction performance. Experiments on two real healthcare datasets demonstrate that our proposed framework produces realistic data samples and achieves significant improvements on classification tasks with the generated data over several stat-of-the-art baselines.

The widespread availability of electronic health records (EHRs) promises to usher in the era of personalized medicine. However, the problem of extracting useful clinical representations from longitudinal EHR data remains challenging. In this paper, we explore deep neural network models with learned medical feature embedding to deal with the problems of high dimensionality and temporality. Specifically, we use a multi-layer convolutional neural network (CNN) to parameterize the model and is thus able to capture complex non-linear longitudinal evolution of EHRs. Our model can effectively capture local/short temporal dependency in EHRs, which is beneficial for risk prediction. To account for high dimensionality, we use the embedding medical features in the CNN model which hold the natural medical concepts. Our initial experiments produce promising results and demonstrate the effectiveness of both the medical feature embedding and the proposed convolutional neural network in risk prediction on cohorts of congestive heart failure and diabetes patients compared with several strong baselines.

Our objective is to train $p$-norm Multiple Kernel Learning (MKL) and, more generally, linear MKL regularised by the Bregman divergence, using the Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO) algorithm. The SMO algorithm is simple, easy to implement and adapt, and efficiently scales to large problems. As a result, it has gained widespread acceptance and SVMs are routinely trained using SMO in diverse real world applications. Training using SMO has been a long standing goal in MKL for the very same reasons. Unfortunately, the standard MKL dual is not differentiable, and therefore can not be optimised using SMO style co-ordinate ascent. In this paper, we demonstrate that linear MKL regularised with the $p$-norm squared, or with certain Bregman divergences, can indeed be trained using SMO. The resulting algorithm retains both simplicity and efficiency and is significantly faster than the state-of-the-art specialised $p$-norm MKL solvers. We show that we can train on a hundred thousand kernels in approximately seven minutes and on fifty thousand points in less than half an hour on a single core.