Smoleň, Timotej
Comparative Analysis of Deep Learning Models for Real-World ISP Network Traffic Forecasting
Koumar, Josef, Smoleň, Timotej, Jeřábek, Kamil, Čejka, Tomáš
Traffic monitoring is a cornerstone of effective network management and cybersecurity, providing Internet Service Providers (ISPs) with critical insights to detect anomalies, mitigate congestion, and maintain network performance [1]. The surge in video streaming, cloud computing, and online gaming is driving rapid growth in internet usage, contributing to increasingly complex and less predictable network traffic. Efficient network monitoring allows ISPs to maintain service quality, mitigate security risks, and optimize bandwidth in real time [2]. However, real-time monitoring alone is insufficient for proactively managing network resources. To anticipate variations in demand and prevent service disruptions, ISPs increasingly adopt advanced forecasting techniques to predict traffic patterns and optimize resource allocation in advance [3]. Accurate traffic forecasting allows ISPs to efficiently allocate resources, scale network capacity, and sustain service quality under fluctuating loads [3]. The rise of diverse, high-bandwidth services has significantly increased network traffic variability. Traditional models like ARIMA and exponential smoothing, which assume linearity, struggle with ISP data due to prevalent non-linear and high-frequency fluctuations, especially during peak traffic hours [4]. These limitations have driven the adoption of deep learning models, particularly neural networks, which excel at capturing complex temporal dependencies across various forecasting domains [5].