Educational data mining (EDM) is a part of applied computing that focuses on automatically analyzing data from learning contexts. Early prediction for identifying at-risk students is a crucial and widely researched topic in EDM research. It enables instructors to support at-risk students to stay on track, preventing student dropout or failure. Previous studies have predicted students' learning performance to identify at-risk students by using machine learning on data collected from e-learning platforms. However, most studies aimed to identify at-risk students utilizing the entire course data after the course finished. This does not correspond to the real-world scenario that at-risk students may drop out before the course ends. To address this problem, we introduce an RNN-Attention-KD (knowledge distillation) framework to predict at-risk students early throughout a course. It leverages the strengths of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) in handling time-sequence data to predict students' performance at each time step and employs an attention mechanism to focus on relevant time steps for improved predictive accuracy. At the same time, KD is applied to compress the time steps to facilitate early prediction. In an empirical evaluation, RNN-Attention-KD outperforms traditional neural network models in terms of recall and F1-measure. For example, it obtained recall and F1-measure of 0.49 and 0.51 for Weeks 1--3 and 0.51 and 0.61 for Weeks 1--6 across all datasets from four years of a university course. Then, an ablation study investigated the contributions of different knowledge transfer methods (distillation objectives). We found that hint loss from the hidden layer of RNN and context vector loss from the attention module on RNN could enhance the model's prediction performance for identifying at-risk students. These results are relevant for EDM researchers employing deep learning models.

In supervised machine learning (SML) research, large training datasets are essential for valid results. However, obtaining primary data in learning analytics (LA) is challenging. Data augmentation can address this by expanding and diversifying data, though its use in LA remains underexplored. This paper systematically compares data augmentation techniques and their impact on prediction performance in a typical LA task: prediction of academic outcomes. Augmentation is demonstrated on four SML models, which we successfully replicated from a previous LAK study based on AUC values. Among 21 augmentation techniques, SMOTE-ENN sampling performed the best, improving the average AUC by 0.01 and approximately halving the training time compared to the baseline models. In addition, we compared 99 combinations of chaining 21 techniques, and found minor, although statistically significant, improvements across models when adding noise to SMOTE-ENN (+0.014). Notably, some augmentation techniques significantly lowered predictive performance or increased performance fluctuation related to random chance. This paper's contribution is twofold. Primarily, our empirical findings show that sampling techniques provide the most statistically reliable performance improvements for LA applications of SML, and are computationally more efficient than deep generation methods with complex hyperparameter settings. Second, the LA community may benefit from validating a recent study through independent replication.

Algorithmic bias is a major issue in machine learning models in educational contexts. However, it has not yet been studied thoroughly in Asian learning contexts, and only limited work has considered algorithmic bias based on regional (sub-national) background. As a step towards addressing this gap, this paper examines the population of 5,986 students at a large university in the Philippines, investigating algorithmic bias based on students' regional background. The university used the Canvas learning management system (LMS) in its online courses across a broad range of domains. Over the period of three semesters, we collected 48.7 million log records of the students' activity in Canvas. We used these logs to train binary classification models that predict student grades from the LMS activity. The best-performing model reached AUC of 0.75 and weighted F1-score of 0.79. Subsequently, we examined the data for bias based on students' region. Evaluation using three metrics: AUC, weighted F1-score, and MADD showed consistent results across all demographic groups. Thus, no unfairness was observed against a particular student group in the grade predictions.

Digital textbook (e-book) systems record student interactions with textbooks as a sequence of events called EventStream data. In the past, researchers extracted meaningful features from EventStream, and utilized them as inputs for downstream tasks such as grade prediction and modeling of student behavior. Previous research evaluated models that mainly used statistical-based features derived from EventStream logs, such as the number of operation types or access frequencies. While these features are useful for providing certain insights, they lack temporal information that captures fine-grained differences in learning behaviors among different students. This study proposes E2Vec, a novel feature representation method based on word embeddings. The proposed method regards operation logs and their time intervals for each student as a string sequence of characters and generates a student vector of learning activity features that incorporates time information. We applied fastText to generate an embedding vector for each of 305 students in a dataset from two years of computer science courses. Then, we investigated the effectiveness of E2Vec in an at-risk detection task, demonstrating potential for generalizability and performance.