We have designed a machine that becomes increasingly better at behaving in underspecified circumstances, in a goal-directed way, on the job, by modeling itself and its environment as experience accumulates. Based on principles of autocatalysis, endogeny, and reflectivity, the work provides an architectural blueprint for constructing systems with high levels of operational autonomy in underspecified circumstances, starting from a small seed. Through value-driven dynamic priority scheduling controlling the parallel execution of a vast number of reasoning threads, the system achieves recursive self-improvement after it leaves the lab, within the boundaries imposed by its designers. A prototype system has been implemented and demonstrated to learn a complex real-world task, real-time multimodal dialogue with humans, by on-line observation. Our work presents solutions to several challenges that must be solved for achieving artificial general intelligence.

We bound the future loss when predicting any (computably) stochastic sequence online. Solomonoff finitely bounded the total deviation of his universal predictor $M$ from the true distribution $mu$ by the algorithmic complexity of $mu$. Here we assume we are at a time $t>1$ and already observed $x=x_1...x_t$. We bound the future prediction performance on $x_{t+1}x_{t+2}...$ by a new variant of algorithmic complexity of $mu$ given $x$, plus the complexity of the randomness deficiency of $x$. The new complexity is monotone in its condition in the sense that this complexity can only decrease if the condition is prolonged. We also briefly discuss potential generalizations to Bayesian model classes and to classification problems.