Sanders, Ted
OpenAI o1 System Card
OpenAI, null, :, null, Jaech, Aaron, Kalai, Adam, Lerer, Adam, Richardson, Adam, El-Kishky, Ahmed, Low, Aiden, Helyar, Alec, Madry, Aleksander, Beutel, Alex, Carney, Alex, Iftimie, Alex, Karpenko, Alex, Passos, Alex Tachard, Neitz, Alexander, Prokofiev, Alexander, Wei, Alexander, Tam, Allison, Bennett, Ally, Kumar, Ananya, Saraiva, Andre, Vallone, Andrea, Duberstein, Andrew, Kondrich, Andrew, Mishchenko, Andrey, Applebaum, Andy, Jiang, Angela, Nair, Ashvin, Zoph, Barret, Ghorbani, Behrooz, Rossen, Ben, Sokolowsky, Benjamin, Barak, Boaz, McGrew, Bob, Minaiev, Borys, Hao, Botao, Baker, Bowen, Houghton, Brandon, McKinzie, Brandon, Eastman, Brydon, Lugaresi, Camillo, Bassin, Cary, Hudson, Cary, Li, Chak Ming, de Bourcy, Charles, Voss, Chelsea, Shen, Chen, Zhang, Chong, Koch, Chris, Orsinger, Chris, Hesse, Christopher, Fischer, Claudia, Chan, Clive, Roberts, Dan, Kappler, Daniel, Levy, Daniel, Selsam, Daniel, Dohan, David, Farhi, David, Mely, David, Robinson, David, Tsipras, Dimitris, Li, Doug, Oprica, Dragos, Freeman, Eben, Zhang, Eddie, Wong, Edmund, Proehl, Elizabeth, Cheung, Enoch, Mitchell, Eric, Wallace, Eric, Ritter, Erik, Mays, Evan, Wang, Fan, Such, Felipe Petroski, Raso, Filippo, Leoni, Florencia, Tsimpourlas, Foivos, Song, Francis, von Lohmann, Fred, Sulit, Freddie, Salmon, Geoff, Parascandolo, Giambattista, Chabot, Gildas, Zhao, Grace, Brockman, Greg, Leclerc, Guillaume, Salman, Hadi, Bao, Haiming, Sheng, Hao, Andrin, Hart, Bagherinezhad, Hessam, Ren, Hongyu, Lightman, Hunter, Chung, Hyung Won, Kivlichan, Ian, O'Connell, Ian, Osband, Ian, Gilaberte, Ignasi Clavera, Akkaya, Ilge, Kostrikov, Ilya, Sutskever, Ilya, Kofman, Irina, Pachocki, Jakub, Lennon, James, Wei, Jason, Harb, Jean, Twore, Jerry, Feng, Jiacheng, Yu, Jiahui, Weng, Jiayi, Tang, Jie, Yu, Jieqi, Candela, Joaquin Quiñonero, Palermo, Joe, Parish, Joel, Heidecke, Johannes, Hallman, John, Rizzo, John, Gordon, Jonathan, Uesato, Jonathan, Ward, Jonathan, Huizinga, Joost, Wang, Julie, Chen, Kai, Xiao, Kai, Singhal, Karan, Nguyen, Karina, Cobbe, Karl, Shi, Katy, Wood, Kayla, Rimbach, Kendra, Gu-Lemberg, Keren, Liu, Kevin, Lu, Kevin, Stone, Kevin, Yu, Kevin, Ahmad, Lama, Yang, Lauren, Liu, Leo, Maksin, Leon, Ho, Leyton, Fedus, Liam, Weng, Lilian, Li, Linden, McCallum, Lindsay, Held, Lindsey, Kuhn, Lorenz, Kondraciuk, Lukas, Kaiser, Lukasz, Metz, Luke, Boyd, Madelaine, Trebacz, Maja, Joglekar, Manas, Chen, Mark, Tintor, Marko, Meyer, Mason, Jones, Matt, Kaufer, Matt, Schwarzer, Max, Shah, Meghan, Yatbaz, Mehmet, Guan, Melody Y., Xu, Mengyuan, Yan, Mengyuan, Glaese, Mia, Chen, Mianna, Lampe, Michael, Malek, Michael, Wang, Michele, Fradin, Michelle, McClay, Mike, Pavlov, Mikhail, Wang, Miles, Wang, Mingxuan, Murati, Mira, Bavarian, Mo, Rohaninejad, Mostafa, McAleese, Nat, Chowdhury, Neil, Chowdhury, Neil, Ryder, Nick, Tezak, Nikolas, Brown, Noam, Nachum, Ofir, Boiko, Oleg, Murk, Oleg, Watkins, Olivia, Chao, Patrick, Ashbourne, Paul, Izmailov, Pavel, Zhokhov, Peter, Dias, Rachel, Arora, Rahul, Lin, Randall, Lopes, Rapha Gontijo, Gaon, Raz, Miyara, Reah, Leike, Reimar, Hwang, Renny, Garg, Rhythm, Brown, Robin, James, Roshan, Shu, Rui, Cheu, Ryan, Greene, Ryan, Jain, Saachi, Altman, Sam, Toizer, Sam, Toyer, Sam, Miserendino, Samuel, Agarwal, Sandhini, Hernandez, Santiago, Baker, Sasha, McKinney, Scott, Yan, Scottie, Zhao, Shengjia, Hu, Shengli, Santurkar, Shibani, Chaudhuri, Shraman Ray, Zhang, Shuyuan, Fu, Siyuan, Papay, Spencer, Lin, Steph, Balaji, Suchir, Sanjeev, Suvansh, Sidor, Szymon, Broda, Tal, Clark, Aidan, Wang, Tao, Gordon, Taylor, Sanders, Ted, Patwardhan, Tejal, Sottiaux, Thibault, Degry, Thomas, Dimson, Thomas, Zheng, Tianhao, Garipov, Timur, Stasi, Tom, Bansal, Trapit, Creech, Trevor, Peterson, Troy, Eloundou, Tyna, Qi, Valerie, Kosaraju, Vineet, Monaco, Vinnie, Pong, Vitchyr, Fomenko, Vlad, Zheng, Weiyi, Zhou, Wenda, McCabe, Wes, Zaremba, Wojciech, Dubois, Yann, Lu, Yinghai, Chen, Yining, Cha, Young, Bai, Yu, He, Yuchen, Zhang, Yuchen, Wang, Yunyun, Shao, Zheng, Li, Zhuohan
The o1 model series is trained with large-scale reinforcement learning to reason using chain of thought. These advanced reasoning capabilities provide new avenues for improving the safety and robustness of our models. In particular, our models can reason about our safety policies in context when responding to potentially unsafe prompts, through deliberative alignment. This leads to state-of-the-art performance on certain benchmarks for risks such as generating illicit advice, choosing stereotyped responses, and succumbing to known jailbreaks. Training models to incorporate a chain of thought before answering has the potential to unlock substantial benefits, while also increasing potential risks that stem from heightened intelligence. Our results underscore the need for building robust alignment methods, extensively stress-testing their efficacy, and maintaining meticulous risk management protocols. This report outlines the safety work carried out for the OpenAI o1 and OpenAI o1-mini models, including safety evaluations, external red teaming, and Preparedness Framework evaluations.
GPT-4o System Card
OpenAI, null, :, null, Hurst, Aaron, Lerer, Adam, Goucher, Adam P., Perelman, Adam, Ramesh, Aditya, Clark, Aidan, Ostrow, AJ, Welihinda, Akila, Hayes, Alan, Radford, Alec, Mądry, Aleksander, Baker-Whitcomb, Alex, Beutel, Alex, Borzunov, Alex, Carney, Alex, Chow, Alex, Kirillov, Alex, Nichol, Alex, Paino, Alex, Renzin, Alex, Passos, Alex Tachard, Kirillov, Alexander, Christakis, Alexi, Conneau, Alexis, Kamali, Ali, Jabri, Allan, Moyer, Allison, Tam, Allison, Crookes, Amadou, Tootoochian, Amin, Tootoonchian, Amin, Kumar, Ananya, Vallone, Andrea, Karpathy, Andrej, Braunstein, Andrew, Cann, Andrew, Codispoti, Andrew, Galu, Andrew, Kondrich, Andrew, Tulloch, Andrew, Mishchenko, Andrey, Baek, Angela, Jiang, Angela, Pelisse, Antoine, Woodford, Antonia, Gosalia, Anuj, Dhar, Arka, Pantuliano, Ashley, Nayak, Avi, Oliver, Avital, Zoph, Barret, Ghorbani, Behrooz, Leimberger, Ben, Rossen, Ben, Sokolowsky, Ben, Wang, Ben, Zweig, Benjamin, Hoover, Beth, Samic, Blake, McGrew, Bob, Spero, Bobby, Giertler, Bogo, Cheng, Bowen, Lightcap, Brad, Walkin, Brandon, Quinn, Brendan, Guarraci, Brian, Hsu, Brian, Kellogg, Bright, Eastman, Brydon, Lugaresi, Camillo, Wainwright, Carroll, Bassin, Cary, Hudson, Cary, Chu, Casey, Nelson, Chad, Li, Chak, Shern, Chan Jun, Conger, Channing, Barette, Charlotte, Voss, Chelsea, Ding, Chen, Lu, Cheng, Zhang, Chong, Beaumont, Chris, Hallacy, Chris, Koch, Chris, Gibson, Christian, Kim, Christina, Choi, Christine, McLeavey, Christine, Hesse, Christopher, Fischer, Claudia, Winter, Clemens, Czarnecki, Coley, Jarvis, Colin, Wei, Colin, Koumouzelis, Constantin, Sherburn, Dane, Kappler, Daniel, Levin, Daniel, Levy, Daniel, Carr, David, Farhi, David, Mely, David, Robinson, David, Sasaki, David, Jin, Denny, Valladares, Dev, Tsipras, Dimitris, Li, Doug, Nguyen, Duc Phong, Findlay, Duncan, Oiwoh, Edede, Wong, Edmund, Asdar, Ehsan, Proehl, Elizabeth, Yang, Elizabeth, Antonow, Eric, Kramer, Eric, Peterson, Eric, Sigler, Eric, Wallace, Eric, Brevdo, Eugene, Mays, Evan, Khorasani, Farzad, Such, Felipe Petroski, Raso, Filippo, Zhang, Francis, von Lohmann, Fred, Sulit, Freddie, Goh, Gabriel, Oden, Gene, Salmon, Geoff, Starace, Giulio, Brockman, Greg, Salman, Hadi, Bao, Haiming, Hu, Haitang, Wong, Hannah, Wang, Haoyu, Schmidt, Heather, Whitney, Heather, Jun, Heewoo, Kirchner, Hendrik, Pinto, Henrique Ponde de Oliveira, Ren, Hongyu, Chang, Huiwen, Chung, Hyung Won, Kivlichan, Ian, O'Connell, Ian, O'Connell, Ian, Osband, Ian, Silber, Ian, Sohl, Ian, Okuyucu, Ibrahim, Lan, Ikai, Kostrikov, Ilya, Sutskever, Ilya, Kanitscheider, Ingmar, Gulrajani, Ishaan, Coxon, Jacob, Menick, Jacob, Pachocki, Jakub, Aung, James, Betker, James, Crooks, James, Lennon, James, Kiros, Jamie, Leike, Jan, Park, Jane, Kwon, Jason, Phang, Jason, Teplitz, Jason, Wei, Jason, Wolfe, Jason, Chen, Jay, Harris, Jeff, Varavva, Jenia, Lee, Jessica Gan, Shieh, Jessica, Lin, Ji, Yu, Jiahui, Weng, Jiayi, Tang, Jie, Yu, Jieqi, Jang, Joanne, Candela, Joaquin Quinonero, Beutler, Joe, Landers, Joe, Parish, Joel, Heidecke, Johannes, Schulman, John, Lachman, Jonathan, McKay, Jonathan, Uesato, Jonathan, Ward, Jonathan, Kim, Jong Wook, Huizinga, Joost, Sitkin, Jordan, Kraaijeveld, Jos, Gross, Josh, Kaplan, Josh, Snyder, Josh, Achiam, Joshua, Jiao, Joy, Lee, Joyce, Zhuang, Juntang, Harriman, Justyn, Fricke, Kai, Hayashi, Kai, Singhal, Karan, Shi, Katy, Karthik, Kavin, Wood, Kayla, Rimbach, Kendra, Hsu, Kenny, Nguyen, Kenny, Gu-Lemberg, Keren, Button, Kevin, Liu, Kevin, Howe, Kiel, Muthukumar, Krithika, Luther, Kyle, Ahmad, Lama, Kai, Larry, Itow, Lauren, Workman, Lauren, Pathak, Leher, Chen, Leo, Jing, Li, Guy, Lia, Fedus, Liam, Zhou, Liang, Mamitsuka, Lien, Weng, Lilian, McCallum, Lindsay, Held, Lindsey, Ouyang, Long, Feuvrier, Louis, Zhang, Lu, Kondraciuk, Lukas, Kaiser, Lukasz, Hewitt, Luke, Metz, Luke, Doshi, Lyric, Aflak, Mada, Simens, Maddie, Boyd, Madelaine, Thompson, Madeleine, Dukhan, Marat, Chen, Mark, Gray, Mark, Hudnall, Mark, Zhang, Marvin, Aljubeh, Marwan, Litwin, Mateusz, Zeng, Matthew, Johnson, Max, Shetty, Maya, Gupta, Mayank, Shah, Meghan, Yatbaz, Mehmet, Yang, Meng Jia, Zhong, Mengchao, Glaese, Mia, Chen, Mianna, Janner, Michael, Lampe, Michael, Petrov, Michael, Wu, Michael, Wang, Michele, Fradin, Michelle, Pokrass, Michelle, Castro, Miguel, de Castro, Miguel Oom Temudo, Pavlov, Mikhail, Brundage, Miles, Wang, Miles, Khan, Minal, Murati, Mira, Bavarian, Mo, Lin, Molly, Yesildal, Murat, Soto, Nacho, Gimelshein, Natalia, Cone, Natalie, Staudacher, Natalie, Summers, Natalie, LaFontaine, Natan, Chowdhury, Neil, Ryder, Nick, Stathas, Nick, Turley, Nick, Tezak, Nik, Felix, Niko, Kudige, Nithanth, Keskar, Nitish, Deutsch, Noah, Bundick, Noel, Puckett, Nora, Nachum, Ofir, Okelola, Ola, Boiko, Oleg, Murk, Oleg, Jaffe, Oliver, Watkins, Olivia, Godement, Olivier, Campbell-Moore, Owen, Chao, Patrick, McMillan, Paul, Belov, Pavel, Su, Peng, Bak, Peter, Bakkum, Peter, Deng, Peter, Dolan, Peter, Hoeschele, Peter, Welinder, Peter, Tillet, Phil, Pronin, Philip, Tillet, Philippe, Dhariwal, Prafulla, Yuan, Qiming, Dias, Rachel, Lim, Rachel, Arora, Rahul, Troll, Rajan, Lin, Randall, Lopes, Rapha Gontijo, Puri, Raul, Miyara, Reah, Leike, Reimar, Gaubert, Renaud, Zamani, Reza, Wang, Ricky, Donnelly, Rob, Honsby, Rob, Smith, Rocky, Sahai, Rohan, Ramchandani, Rohit, Huet, Romain, Carmichael, Rory, Zellers, Rowan, Chen, Roy, Chen, Ruby, Nigmatullin, Ruslan, Cheu, Ryan, Jain, Saachi, Altman, Sam, Schoenholz, Sam, Toizer, Sam, Miserendino, Samuel, Agarwal, Sandhini, Culver, Sara, Ethersmith, Scott, Gray, Scott, Grove, Sean, Metzger, Sean, Hermani, Shamez, Jain, Shantanu, Zhao, Shengjia, Wu, Sherwin, Jomoto, Shino, Wu, Shirong, Shuaiqi, null, Xia, null, Phene, Sonia, Papay, Spencer, Narayanan, Srinivas, Coffey, Steve, Lee, Steve, Hall, Stewart, Balaji, Suchir, Broda, Tal, Stramer, Tal, Xu, Tao, Gogineni, Tarun, Christianson, Taya, Sanders, Ted, Patwardhan, Tejal, Cunninghman, Thomas, Degry, Thomas, Dimson, Thomas, Raoux, Thomas, Shadwell, Thomas, Zheng, Tianhao, Underwood, Todd, Markov, Todor, Sherbakov, Toki, Rubin, Tom, Stasi, Tom, Kaftan, Tomer, Heywood, Tristan, Peterson, Troy, Walters, Tyce, Eloundou, Tyna, Qi, Valerie, Moeller, Veit, Monaco, Vinnie, Kuo, Vishal, Fomenko, Vlad, Chang, Wayne, Zheng, Weiyi, Zhou, Wenda, Manassra, Wesam, Sheu, Will, Zaremba, Wojciech, Patil, Yash, Qian, Yilei, Kim, Yongjik, Cheng, Youlong, Zhang, Yu, He, Yuchen, Zhang, Yuchen, Jin, Yujia, Dai, Yunxing, Malkov, Yury
GPT-4o is an autoregressive omni model that accepts as input any combination of text, audio, image, and video, and generates any combination of text, audio, and image outputs. It's trained end-to-end across text, vision, and audio, meaning all inputs and outputs are processed by the same neural network. GPT-4o can respond to audio inputs in as little as 232 milliseconds, with an average of 320 milliseconds, which is similar to human response time in conversation. It matches GPT-4 Turbo performance on text in English and code, with significant improvement on text in non-English languages, while also being much faster and 50\% cheaper in the API. GPT-4o is especially better at vision and audio understanding compared to existing models. In line with our commitment to building AI safely and consistent with our voluntary commitments to the White House, we are sharing the GPT-4o System Card, which includes our Preparedness Framework evaluations. In this System Card, we provide a detailed look at GPT-4o's capabilities, limitations, and safety evaluations across multiple categories, focusing on speech-to-speech while also evaluating text and image capabilities, and measures we've implemented to ensure the model is safe and aligned. We also include third-party assessments on dangerous capabilities, as well as discussion of potential societal impacts of GPT-4o's text and vision capabilities.
GPT-4 Technical Report
OpenAI, null, :, null, Achiam, Josh, Adler, Steven, Agarwal, Sandhini, Ahmad, Lama, Akkaya, Ilge, Aleman, Florencia Leoni, Almeida, Diogo, Altenschmidt, Janko, Altman, Sam, Anadkat, Shyamal, Avila, Red, Babuschkin, Igor, Balaji, Suchir, Balcom, Valerie, Baltescu, Paul, Bao, Haiming, Bavarian, Mo, Belgum, Jeff, Bello, Irwan, Berdine, Jake, Bernadett-Shapiro, Gabriel, Berner, Christopher, Bogdonoff, Lenny, Boiko, Oleg, Boyd, Madelaine, Brakman, Anna-Luisa, Brockman, Greg, Brooks, Tim, Brundage, Miles, Button, Kevin, Cai, Trevor, Campbell, Rosie, Cann, Andrew, Carey, Brittany, Carlson, Chelsea, Carmichael, Rory, Chan, Brooke, Chang, Che, Chantzis, Fotis, Chen, Derek, Chen, Sully, Chen, Ruby, Chen, Jason, Chen, Mark, Chess, Ben, Cho, Chester, Chu, Casey, Chung, Hyung Won, Cummings, Dave, Currier, Jeremiah, Dai, Yunxing, Decareaux, Cory, Degry, Thomas, Deutsch, Noah, Deville, Damien, Dhar, Arka, Dohan, David, Dowling, Steve, Dunning, Sheila, Ecoffet, Adrien, Eleti, Atty, Eloundou, Tyna, Farhi, David, Fedus, Liam, Felix, Niko, Fishman, Simón Posada, Forte, Juston, Fulford, Isabella, Gao, Leo, Georges, Elie, Gibson, Christian, Goel, Vik, Gogineni, Tarun, Goh, Gabriel, Gontijo-Lopes, Rapha, Gordon, Jonathan, Grafstein, Morgan, Gray, Scott, Greene, Ryan, Gross, Joshua, Gu, Shixiang Shane, Guo, Yufei, Hallacy, Chris, Han, Jesse, Harris, Jeff, He, Yuchen, Heaton, Mike, Heidecke, Johannes, Hesse, Chris, Hickey, Alan, Hickey, Wade, Hoeschele, Peter, Houghton, Brandon, Hsu, Kenny, Hu, Shengli, Hu, Xin, Huizinga, Joost, Jain, Shantanu, Jain, Shawn, Jang, Joanne, Jiang, Angela, Jiang, Roger, Jin, Haozhun, Jin, Denny, Jomoto, Shino, Jonn, Billie, Jun, Heewoo, Kaftan, Tomer, Kaiser, Łukasz, Kamali, Ali, Kanitscheider, Ingmar, Keskar, Nitish Shirish, Khan, Tabarak, Kilpatrick, Logan, Kim, Jong Wook, Kim, Christina, Kim, Yongjik, Kirchner, Hendrik, Kiros, Jamie, Knight, Matt, Kokotajlo, Daniel, Kondraciuk, Łukasz, Kondrich, Andrew, Konstantinidis, Aris, Kosic, Kyle, Krueger, Gretchen, Kuo, Vishal, Lampe, Michael, Lan, Ikai, Lee, Teddy, Leike, Jan, Leung, Jade, Levy, Daniel, Li, Chak Ming, Lim, Rachel, Lin, Molly, Lin, Stephanie, Litwin, Mateusz, Lopez, Theresa, Lowe, Ryan, Lue, Patricia, Makanju, Anna, Malfacini, Kim, Manning, Sam, Markov, Todor, Markovski, Yaniv, Martin, Bianca, Mayer, Katie, Mayne, Andrew, McGrew, Bob, McKinney, Scott Mayer, McLeavey, Christine, McMillan, Paul, McNeil, Jake, Medina, David, Mehta, Aalok, Menick, Jacob, Metz, Luke, Mishchenko, Andrey, Mishkin, Pamela, Monaco, Vinnie, Morikawa, Evan, Mossing, Daniel, Mu, Tong, Murati, Mira, Murk, Oleg, Mély, David, Nair, Ashvin, Nakano, Reiichiro, Nayak, Rajeev, Neelakantan, Arvind, Ngo, Richard, Noh, Hyeonwoo, Ouyang, Long, O'Keefe, Cullen, Pachocki, Jakub, Paino, Alex, Palermo, Joe, Pantuliano, Ashley, Parascandolo, Giambattista, Parish, Joel, Parparita, Emy, Passos, Alex, Pavlov, Mikhail, Peng, Andrew, Perelman, Adam, Peres, Filipe de Avila Belbute, Petrov, Michael, Pinto, Henrique Ponde de Oliveira, Michael, null, Pokorny, null, Pokrass, Michelle, Pong, Vitchyr, Powell, Tolly, Power, Alethea, Power, Boris, Proehl, Elizabeth, Puri, Raul, Radford, Alec, Rae, Jack, Ramesh, Aditya, Raymond, Cameron, Real, Francis, Rimbach, Kendra, Ross, Carl, Rotsted, Bob, Roussez, Henri, Ryder, Nick, Saltarelli, Mario, Sanders, Ted, Santurkar, Shibani, Sastry, Girish, Schmidt, Heather, Schnurr, David, Schulman, John, Selsam, Daniel, Sheppard, Kyla, Sherbakov, Toki, Shieh, Jessica, Shoker, Sarah, Shyam, Pranav, Sidor, Szymon, Sigler, Eric, Simens, Maddie, Sitkin, Jordan, Slama, Katarina, Sohl, Ian, Sokolowsky, Benjamin, Song, Yang, Staudacher, Natalie, Such, Felipe Petroski, Summers, Natalie, Sutskever, Ilya, Tang, Jie, Tezak, Nikolas, Thompson, Madeleine, Tillet, Phil, Tootoonchian, Amin, Tseng, Elizabeth, Tuggle, Preston, Turley, Nick, Tworek, Jerry, Uribe, Juan Felipe Cerón, Vallone, Andrea, Vijayvergiya, Arun, Voss, Chelsea, Wainwright, Carroll, Wang, Justin Jay, Wang, Alvin, Wang, Ben, Ward, Jonathan, Wei, Jason, Weinmann, CJ, Welihinda, Akila, Welinder, Peter, Weng, Jiayi, Weng, Lilian, Wiethoff, Matt, Willner, Dave, Winter, Clemens, Wolrich, Samuel, Wong, Hannah, Workman, Lauren, Wu, Sherwin, Wu, Jeff, Wu, Michael, Xiao, Kai, Xu, Tao, Yoo, Sarah, Yu, Kevin, Yuan, Qiming, Zaremba, Wojciech, Zellers, Rowan, Zhang, Chong, Zhang, Marvin, Zhao, Shengjia, Zheng, Tianhao, Zhuang, Juntang, Zhuk, William, Zoph, Barret
We report the development of GPT-4, a large-scale, multimodal model which can accept image and text inputs and produce text outputs. While less capable than humans in many real-world scenarios, GPT-4 exhibits human-level performance on various professional and academic benchmarks, including passing a simulated bar exam with a score around the top 10% of test takers. GPT-4 is a Transformer-based model pre-trained to predict the next token in a document. The post-training alignment process results in improved performance on measures of factuality and adherence to desired behavior. A core component of this project was developing infrastructure and optimization methods that behave predictably across a wide range of scales. This allowed us to accurately predict some aspects of GPT-4's performance based on models trained with no more than 1/1,000th the compute of GPT-4.
Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely
Allyn-Feuer, Ari, Sanders, Ted
This paper is a submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and find it to be <1%. Specifically, we argue: The bar is high: AGI as defined by the contest - something like AI that can perform nearly all valuable tasks at human cost or less - which we will call transformative AGI is a much higher bar than merely massive progress in AI, or even the unambiguous attainment of expensive superhuman AGI or cheap but uneven AGI. Many steps are needed: The probability of transformative AGI by 2043 can be decomposed as the joint probability of a number of necessary steps, which we group into categories of software, hardware, and sociopolitical factors. No step is guaranteed: For each step, we estimate a probability of success by 2043, conditional on prior steps being achieved. Many steps are quite constrained by the short timeline, and our estimates range from 16% to 95%. Therefore, the odds are low: Multiplying the cascading conditional probabilities together, we estimate that transformative AGI by 2043 is 0.4% likely. Reaching >10% seems to require probabilities that feel unreasonably high, and even 3% seems unlikely. Thoughtfully applying the cascading conditional probability approach to this question yields lower probability values than is often supposed. This framework helps enumerate the many future scenarios where humanity makes partial but incomplete progress toward transformative AGI.