Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Bayesian models are established as one of the main successful paradigms for complex problems in machine learning. To handle intractable inference, research in this area has developed new approximation methods that are fast and effective. However, theoretical analysis of the performance of such approximations is not well developed. The paper furthers such analysis by providing bounds on the excess risk of variational inference algorithms and related regularized loss minimization algorithms for a large class of latent variable models with Gaussian latent variables. We strengthen previous results for variational algorithms by showing that they are competitive with any point-estimate predictor. Unlike previous work, we provide bounds on the risk of the Bayesian predictor and not just the risk of the Gibbs predictor for the same approximate posterior. The bounds are applied in complex models including sparse Gaussian processes and correlated topic models. Theoretical results are complemented by identifying novel approximations to the Bayesian objective that attempt to minimize the risk directly. An empirical evaluation compares the variational and new algorithms shedding further light on their performance.

In order to achieve state-of-the-art performance, modern machine learning techniques require careful data pre-processing and hyperparameter tuning. Moreover, given the ever increasing number of machine learning models being developed, model selection is becoming increasingly important. Automating the selection and tuning of machine learning pipelines, which can include different data preprocessing methods and machine learning models, has long been one of the goals of the machine learning community. In this paper, we propose to solve this meta-learning task by combining ideas from collaborative filtering and Bayesian optimization. Specifically, we use a probabilistic matrix factorization model to transfer knowledge across experiments performed in hundreds of different datasets and use an acquisition function to guide the exploration of the space of possible pipelines. In our experiments, we show that our approach quickly identifies highperforming pipelines across a wide range of datasets, significantly outperforming the current state-of-the-art.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/