Estimating the location and intensity of tropical cyclones holds crucial significance for predicting catastrophic weather events. In this study, we approach this task as a detection and regression challenge, specifically over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) region where best tracks location and wind speed information serve as the labels. The current process for cyclone detection and intensity estimation involves physics-based simulation studies which are time-consuming, only using image features will automate the process for significantly faster and more accurate predictions. While conventional methods typically necessitate substantial prior knowledge for training, we are exploring alternative approaches to enhance efficiency. This research aims to focus specifically on cyclone detection, intensity estimation and related aspects using only image input and data-driven approaches and will lead to faster inference time and automate the process as opposed to current NWP models being utilized at SAC. In context to algorithm development, a novel two stage detection and intensity estimation module is proposed. In the first level detection we try to localize the cyclone over an entire image as captured by INSAT3D over the NIO (North Indian Ocean). For the intensity estimation task, we propose a CNN-LSTM network, which works on the cyclone centered images, utilizing a ResNet-18 backbone, by which we are able to capture both temporal and spatial characteristics.

The autoencoder is an unsupervised learning paradigm that aims to create a compact latent representation of data by minimizing the reconstruction loss. However, it tends to overlook the fact that most data (images) are embedded in a lower-dimensional space, which is crucial for effective data representation. To address this limitation, we propose a novel approach called Low-Rank Autoencoder (LoRAE). In LoRAE, we incorporated a low-rank regularizer to adaptively reconstruct a low-dimensional latent space while preserving the basic objective of an autoencoder. This helps embed the data in a lower-dimensional space while preserving important information. It is a simple autoencoder extension that learns low-rank latent space. Theoretically, we establish a tighter error bound for our model. Empirically, our model's superiority shines through various tasks such as image generation and downstream classification. Both theoretical and practical outcomes highlight the importance of acquiring low-dimensional embeddings.

In neural network training, RMSProp and ADAM remain widely favoured optimization algorithms. One of the keys to their performance lies in selecting the correct step size, which can significantly influence their effectiveness. It is worth noting that these algorithms performance can vary considerably, depending on the chosen step sizes. Additionally, questions about their theoretical convergence properties continue to be a subject of interest. In this paper, we theoretically analyze a constant stepsize version of ADAM in the non-convex setting. We show sufficient conditions for the stepsize to achieve almost sure asymptotic convergence of the gradients to zero with minimal assumptions. We also provide runtime bounds for deterministic ADAM to reach approximate criticality when working with smooth, non-convex functions.

Estimating the number of clusters and cluster structures in unlabeled, complex, and high-dimensional datasets (like images) is challenging for traditional clustering algorithms. In recent years, a matrix reordering-based algorithm called Visual Assessment of Tendency (VAT), and its variants have attracted many researchers from various domains to estimate the number of clusters and inherent cluster structure present in the data. However, these algorithms face significant challenges when dealing with image data as they fail to effectively capture the crucial features inherent in images. To overcome these limitations, we propose a deep-learning-based framework that enables the assessment of cluster structure in complex image datasets. Our approach utilizes a self-supervised deep neural network to generate representative embeddings for the data. These embeddings are then reduced to 2-dimension using t-distributed Stochastic Neighbour Embedding (t-SNE) and inputted into VAT based algorithms to estimate the underlying cluster structure. Importantly, our framework does not rely on any prior knowledge of the number of clusters. Our proposed approach demonstrates superior performance compared to state-of-the-art VAT family algorithms and two other deep clustering algorithms on four benchmark image datasets, namely MNIST, FMNIST, CIFAR-10, and INTEL.

The VAT method is a visual technique for determining the potential cluster structure and the possible number of clusters in numerical data. Its improved version, iVAT, uses a path-based distance transform to improve the effectiveness of VAT for "tough" cases. Both VAT and iVAT have also been used in conjunction with a single-linkage(SL) hierarchical clustering algorithm. However, they are sensitive to noise and bridge points between clusters in the dataset, and consequently, the corresponding VAT/iVAT images are often in-conclusive for such cases. In this paper, we propose a constraint-based version of iVAT, which we call ConiVAT, that makes use of background knowledge in the form of constraints, to improve VAT/iVAT for challenging and complex datasets. ConiVAT uses the input constraints to learn the underlying similarity metric and builds a minimum transitive dissimilarity matrix, before applying VAT to it. We demonstrate ConiVAT approach to visual assessment and single linkage clustering on nine datasets to show that, it improves the quality of iVAT images for complex datasets, and it also overcomes the limitation of SL clustering with VAT/iVAT due to "noisy" bridges between clusters. Extensive experiment results on nine datasets suggest that ConiVAT outperforms the other three semi-supervised clustering algorithms in terms of improved clustering accuracy.

Trajectory prediction (TP) is of great importance for a wide range of location-based applications in intelligent transport systems such as location-based advertising, route planning, traffic management, and early warning systems. In the last few years, the widespread use of GPS navigation systems and wireless communication technology enabled vehicles has resulted in huge volumes of trajectory data. The task of utilizing this data employing spatio-temporal techniques for trajectory prediction in an efficient and accurate manner is an ongoing research problem. Existing TP approaches are limited to short-term predictions. Moreover, they cannot handle a large volume of trajectory data for long-term prediction. To address these limitations, we propose a scalable clustering and Markov chain based hybrid framework, called Traj-clusiVAT-based TP, for both short-term and long-term trajectory prediction, which can handle a large number of overlapping trajectories in a dense road network. In addition, Traj-clusiVAT can also determine the number of clusters, which represent different movement behaviours in input trajectory data. In our experiments, we compare our proposed approach with a mixed Markov model (MMM)-based scheme, and a trajectory clustering, NETSCAN-based TP method for both short- and long-term trajectory predictions. We performed our experiments on two real, vehicle trajectory datasets, including a large-scale trajectory dataset consisting of 3.28 million trajectories obtained from 15,061 taxis in Singapore over a period of one month. Experimental results on two real trajectory datasets show that our proposed approach outperforms the existing approaches in terms of both short- and long-term prediction performances, based on prediction accuracy and distance error (in km).