Inferring atmospheric properties of exoplanets from observed spectra is key to understanding their formation, evolution, and habitability. Since traditional Bayesian approaches to atmospheric retrieval (e.g., nested sampling) are computationally expensive, a growing number of machine learning (ML) methods such as neural posterior estimation (NPE) have been proposed. We seek to make ML-based atmospheric retrieval (1) more reliable and accurate with verified results, and (2) more flexible with respect to the underlying neural networks and the choice of the assumed noise models. First, we adopt flow matching posterior estimation (FMPE) as a new ML approach to atmospheric retrieval. FMPE maintains many advantages of NPE, but provides greater architectural flexibility and scalability. Second, we use importance sampling (IS) to verify and correct ML results, and to compute an estimate of the Bayesian evidence. Third, we condition our ML models on the assumed noise level of a spectrum (i.e., error bars), thus making them adaptable to different noise models. Both our noise level-conditional FMPE and NPE models perform on par with nested sampling across a range of noise levels when tested on simulated data. FMPE trains about 3 times faster than NPE and yields higher IS efficiencies. IS successfully corrects inaccurate ML results, identifies model failures via low efficiencies, and provides accurate estimates of the Bayesian evidence. FMPE is a powerful alternative to NPE for fast, amortized, and parallelizable atmospheric retrieval. IS can verify results, thus helping to build confidence in ML-based approaches, while also facilitating model comparison via the evidence ratio. Noise level conditioning allows design studies for future instruments to be scaled up, for example, in terms of the range of signal-to-noise ratios.

The new generation of observatories and instruments (VLT/ERIS, JWST, ELT) motivate the development of robust methods to detect and characterise faint and close-in exoplanets. Molecular mapping and cross-correlation for spectroscopy use molecular templates to isolate a planet's spectrum from its host star. However, reliance on signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) metrics can lead to missed discoveries, due to strong assumptions of Gaussian independent and identically distributed noise. We introduce machine learning for cross-correlation spectroscopy (MLCCS); the method aims to leverage weak assumptions on exoplanet characterisation, such as the presence of specific molecules in atmospheres, to improve detection sensitivity for exoplanets. MLCCS methods, including a perceptron and unidimensional convolutional neural networks, operate in the cross-correlated spectral dimension, in which patterns from molecules can be identified. We test on mock datasets of synthetic planets inserted into real noise from SINFONI at K-band. The results from MLCCS show outstanding improvements. The outcome on a grid of faint synthetic gas giants shows that for a false discovery rate up to 5%, a perceptron can detect about 26 times the amount of planets compared to an S/N metric. This factor increases up to 77 times with convolutional neural networks, with a statistical sensitivity shift from 0.7% to 55.5%. In addition, MLCCS methods show a drastic improvement in detection confidence and conspicuity on imaging spectroscopy. Once trained, MLCCS methods offer sensitive and rapid detection of exoplanets and their molecular species in the spectral dimension. They handle systematic noise and challenging seeing conditions, can adapt to many spectroscopic instruments and modes, and are versatile regarding atmospheric characteristics, which can enable identification of various planets in archival and future data.

Direct imaging of Earth-like exoplanets is one of the most prominent scientific drivers of the next generation of ground-based telescopes. Typically, Earth-like exoplanets are located at small angular separations from their host stars, making their detection difficult. Consequently, the adaptive optics (AO) system's control algorithm must be carefully designed to distinguish the exoplanet from the residual light produced by the host star. A new promising avenue of research to improve AO control builds on data-driven control methods such as Reinforcement Learning (RL). RL is an active branch of the machine learning research field, where control of a system is learned through interaction with the environment. Thus, RL can be seen as an automated approach to AO control, where its usage is entirely a turnkey operation. In particular, model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) has been shown to cope with both temporal and misregistration errors. Similarly, it has been demonstrated to adapt to non-linear wavefront sensing while being efficient in training and execution. In this work, we implement and adapt an RL method called Policy Optimization for AO (PO4AO) to the GHOST test bench at ESO headquarters, where we demonstrate a strong performance of the method in a laboratory environment. Our implementation allows the training to be performed parallel to inference, which is crucial for on-sky operation. In particular, we study the predictive and self-calibrating aspects of the method. The new implementation on GHOST running PyTorch introduces only around 700 microseconds in addition to hardware, pipeline, and Python interface latency. We open-source well-documented code for the implementation and specify the requirements for the RTC pipeline. We also discuss the important hyperparameters of the method, the source of the latency, and the possible paths for a lower latency implementation.

Atmospheric retrievals (AR) characterize exoplanets by estimating atmospheric parameters from observed light spectra, typically by framing the task as a Bayesian inference problem. However, traditional approaches such as nested sampling are computationally expensive, thus sparking an interest in solutions based on machine learning (ML). In this ongoing work, we first explore flow matching posterior estimation (FMPE) as a new ML-based method for AR and find that, in our case, it is more accurate than neural posterior estimation (NPE), but less accurate than nested sampling. We then combine both FMPE and NPE with importance sampling, in which case both methods outperform nested sampling in terms of accuracy and simulation efficiency. Going forward, our analysis suggests that simulation-based inference with likelihood-based importance sampling provides a framework for accurate and efficient AR that may become a valuable tool not only for the analysis of observational data from existing telescopes, but also for the development of new missions and instruments.

Atmospheric retrievals (AR) of exoplanets typically rely on a combination of a Bayesian inference technique and a forward simulator to estimate atmospheric properties from an observed spectrum. A key component in simulating spectra is the pressure-temperature (PT) profile, which describes the thermal structure of the atmosphere. Current AR pipelines commonly use ad hoc fitting functions here that limit the retrieved PT profiles to simple approximations, but still use a relatively large number of parameters. In this work, we introduce a conceptually new, data-driven parameterization scheme for physically consistent PT profiles that does not require explicit assumptions about the functional form of the PT profiles and uses fewer parameters than existing methods. Our approach consists of a latent variable model (based on a neural network) that learns a distribution over functions (PT profiles). Each profile is represented by a low-dimensional vector that can be used to condition a decoder network that maps $P$ to $T$. When training and evaluating our method on two publicly available datasets of self-consistent PT profiles, we find that our method achieves, on average, better fit quality than existing baseline methods, despite using fewer parameters. In an AR based on existing literature, our model (using two parameters) produces a tighter, more accurate posterior for the PT profile than the five-parameter polynomial baseline, while also speeding up the retrieval by more than a factor of three. By providing parametric access to physically consistent PT profiles, and by reducing the number of parameters required to describe a PT profile (thereby reducing computational cost or freeing resources for additional parameters of interest), our method can help improve AR and thus our understanding of exoplanet atmospheres and their habitability.