Extreme hazard events such as wildfires and hurricanes increasingly threaten power systems, causing widespread outages and disrupting critical services. Recently, predict-then-optimize approaches have gained traction in grid operations, where system functionality forecasts are first generated and then used as inputs for downstream decision-making. However, this two-stage method often results in a misalignment between prediction and optimization objectives, leading to suboptimal resource allocation. To address this, we propose predict-all-then-optimize-globally (PATOG), a framework that integrates outage prediction with globally optimized interventions. At its core, our global-decision-focused (GDF) neural ODE model captures outage dynamics while optimizing resilience strategies in a decision-aware manner. Unlike conventional methods, our approach ensures spatially and temporally coherent decision-making, improving both predictive accuracy and operational efficiency. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvements in outage prediction consistency and grid resilience.

With the global climate change, extreme weather events like hurricanes, winter storms, and tornadoes have increasingly led to widespread electric power outages across the United States [14]. For instance, during March 2018, the northeastern U.S. was battered by three consecutive winter storms within a span of 14 days. This series of events caused power outages that left over 2.75 million customers without electricity in the New England region, resulting in economic losses of approximately $4 billion, including $2.9 billion in insured damages [8]. Such severe weather-related incidents often leave millions without power for extended periods, resulting in significant economic disruption [19] and, tragically, sometimes even loss of life [25]. Given the considerable impact of extreme weather on power systems since the early 2000s, regulatory bodies in the U.S. have called on the energy sector to enhance the resilience of power grids through various hardening measures [1]. Consequently, accurately assessing the resilience of power grids is crucial not only for estimating potential damage from extreme weather but also for informing short-term disaster response strategies, long-term resilience planning, and shaping energy policy.

The rapid deployment of distributed energy resources (DER) has introduced significant spatio-temporal uncertainties in power grid management, necessitating accurate multilevel forecasting methods. However, existing approaches often produce overly conservative uncertainty intervals at individual spatial units and fail to properly capture uncertainties when aggregating predictions across different spatial scales. This paper presents a novel hierarchical spatio-temporal model based on the conformal prediction framework to address these challenges. Our approach generates circuit-level DER growth predictions and efficiently aggregates them to the substation level while maintaining statistical validity through a tailored non-conformity score. Applied to a decade of DER installation data from a local utility network, our method demonstrates superior performance over existing approaches, particularly in reducing prediction interval widths while maintaining coverage.

Video-driven 3D facial animation transfer aims to drive avatars to reproduce the expressions of actors. Existing methods have achieved remarkable results by constraining both geometric and perceptual consistency. However, geometric constraints (like those designed on facial landmarks) are insufficient to capture subtle emotions, while expression features trained on classification tasks lack fine granularity for complex emotions. To address this, we propose \textbf{FreeAvatar}, a robust facial animation transfer method that relies solely on our learned expression representation. Specifically, FreeAvatar consists of two main components: the expression foundation model and the facial animation transfer model. In the first component, we initially construct a facial feature space through a face reconstruction task and then optimize the expression feature space by exploring the similarities among different expressions. Benefiting from training on the amounts of unlabeled facial images and re-collected expression comparison dataset, our model adapts freely and effectively to any in-the-wild input facial images. In the facial animation transfer component, we propose a novel Expression-driven Multi-avatar Animator, which first maps expressive semantics to the facial control parameters of 3D avatars and then imposes perceptual constraints between the input and output images to maintain expression consistency. To make the entire process differentiable, we employ a trained neural renderer to translate rig parameters into corresponding images. Furthermore, unlike previous methods that require separate decoders for each avatar, we propose a dynamic identity injection module that allows for the joint training of multiple avatars within a single network.

Energy justice is a growing area of interest in interdisciplinary energy research. However, identifying systematic biases in the energy sector remains challenging due to confounding variables, intricate heterogeneity in counterfactual effects, and limited data availability. First, this paper demonstrates how one can evaluate counterfactual unfairness in a power system by analyzing the average causal effect of a specific protected attribute. Subsequently, we use subgroup analysis to handle model heterogeneity and introduce a novel method for estimating counterfactual unfairness based on transfer learning, which helps to alleviate the data scarcity in each subgroup. In our numerical analysis, we apply our method to a unique large-scale customer-level power outage data set and investigate the counterfactual effect of demographic factors, such as income and age of the population, on power outage durations. Our results indicate that low-income and elderly-populated areas consistently experience longer power outages under both daily and post-disaster operations, and such discrimination is exacerbated under severe conditions. These findings suggest a widespread, systematic issue of injustice in the power service systems and emphasize the necessity for focused interventions in disadvantaged communities.

Climate change is a pressing global issue that requires widespread efforts across disciplines to develop technologies capable of significantly reducing or eliminating greenhouse gas emissions. Large-scale adoption of renewable energy sources and electric mobility are expected to be the main drivers toward this goal. The success of this transition hinges on the efficient integration of these technologies into the existing electricity infrastructure, which requires lithium-ion batteries as a vital storage medium, capturing and storing excess energy during peak production periods for use during times of low production or high demand. This energy storage capability is pivotal in maintaining a stable and reliable grid, to mitigate the intermittent nature of generation and demand in these technologies. Such energy storage capabilities are essential for sustaining a stable and reliable grid, particularly in mitigating the intermittent nature inherent in the generation and demand patterns associated with these technologies.

Humans are sophisticated at reading interlocutors' emotions from multimodal signals, such as speech contents, voice tones and facial expressions. However, machines might struggle to understand various emotions due to the difficulty of effectively decoding emotions from the complex interactions between multimodal signals. In this paper, we propose a multimodal emotion analysis framework, InterMulti, to capture complex multimodal interactions from different views and identify emotions from multimodal signals. Our proposed framework decomposes signals of different modalities into three kinds of multimodal interaction representations, including a modality-full interaction representation, a modality-shared interaction representation, and three modality-specific interaction representations. Additionally, to balance the contribution of different modalities and learn a more informative latent interaction representation, we developed a novel Text-dominated Hierarchical High-order Fusion(THHF) module. THHF module reasonably integrates the above three kinds of representations into a comprehensive multimodal interaction representation. Extensive experimental results on widely used datasets, (i.e.) MOSEI, MOSI and IEMOCAP, demonstrate that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art.

Humans are skilled in reading the interlocutor's emotion from multimodal signals, including spoken words, simultaneous speech, and facial expressions. It is still a challenge to effectively decode emotions from the complex interactions of multimodal signals. In this paper, we design three kinds of multimodal latent representations to refine the emotion analysis process and capture complex multimodal interactions from different views, including a intact three-modal integrating representation, a modality-shared representation, and three modality-individual representations. Then, a modality-semantic hierarchical fusion is proposed to reasonably incorporate these representations into a comprehensive interaction representation. The experimental results demonstrate that our EffMulti outperforms the state-of-the-art methods. The compelling performance benefits from its well-designed framework with ease of implementation, lower computing complexity, and less trainable parameters.

Solar power installations are becoming common in residential and commercial areas, largely due to their decreasing costs. However, the power system is vulnerable to some anomalies such as rainstorm or hurricane, which cost greatly to restoration. As a result, detecting and predicting abnormal events from the spatialtemporal series plays a vital role in the solar system, aiming to capture the variety of intrinsic reasons for the anomalies. For example, the rainstorm and drought would bring out different types and patterns of anomalies. In many cases, the abnormal event will also start at one location and then propagate to its neighbors with a time delay, leading to spatial-temporal correlation among anomalies. Thus it is crucial to make observations at multiple locations, which correspondingly form the spatial-temporal series. In this paper, we address non-stationarity and strong spatial-temporal correlation through the following contributions: - Strong spatial-temporal correlation: We present a spatial-temporal Bernoulli process (also extended to categorical observations), which is proposed by [19]. The model can flexibly capture the spatial-temporal correlations and interactions without assuming time-decaying influence. It can also efficiently make predictions for any location at any future time for timely ramp event detection.

Traditional methods for solvability region analysis can only have inner approximations with inconclusive conservatism. Machine learning methods have been proposed to approach the real region. In this letter, we propose a deep active learning framework for power system solvability prediction. Compared with the passive learning methods where the training is performed after all instances are labeled, the active learning selects most informative instances to be label and therefore significantly reduce the size of labeled dataset for training. In the active learning framework, the acquisition functions, which correspond to different sampling strategies, are defined in terms of the on-the-fly posterior probability from the classifier. The IEEE 39-bus system is employed to validate the proposed framework, where a two-dimensional case is illustrated to visualize the effectiveness of the sampling method followed by the full-dimensional numerical experiments.