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Collaborating Authors

 Pearce, Chris


Insurance pricing on price comparison websites via reinforcement learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The emergence of price comparison websites (PCWs) has presented insurers with unique challenges in formulating effective pricing strategies. Operating on PCWs requires insurers to strike a delicate balance between competitive premiums and profitability, amidst obstacles such as low historical conversion rates, limited visibility of competitors' actions, and a dynamic market environment. In addition to this, the capital intensive nature of the business means pricing below the risk levels of customers can result in solvency issues for the insurer. To address these challenges, this paper introduces reinforcement learning (RL) framework that learns the optimal pricing policy by integrating model-based and model-free methods. The model-based component is used to train agents in an offline setting, avoiding cold-start issues, while model-free algorithms are then employed in a contextual bandit (CB) manner to dynamically update the pricing policy to maximise the expected revenue. This facilitates quick adaptation to evolving market dynamics and enhances algorithm efficiency and decision interpretability. The paper also highlights the importance of evaluating pricing policies using an offline dataset in a consistent fashion and demonstrates the superiority of the proposed methodology over existing off-the-shelf RL/CB approaches. We validate our methodology using synthetic data, generated to reflect private commercially available data within real-world insurers, and compare against 6 other benchmark approaches. Our hybrid agent outperforms these benchmarks in terms of sample efficiency and cumulative reward with the exception of an agent that has access to perfect market information which would not be available in a real-world set-up.


Social Planning: Achieving Goals by Altering Others' Mental States

AAAI Conferences

In this paper, we discuss a computational approach to the cognitivetask of social planning. First, we specify a class of planningproblems that involve an agent who attempts to achieve its goalsby altering other agents' mental states. Next, we describe SFPS,a flexible problem solver that generates social plans of this sort,including ones that include deception and reasoning about otheragents' beliefs. We report the results for experiments on socialscenarios that involve different levels of sophistication and thatdemonstrate both SFPS's capabilities and the sources of its power.Finally, we discuss how our approach to social planning has beeninformed by earlier work in the area and propose directions foradditional research on the topic.