Standard Bayesian learning is known to have suboptimal generalization capabilities under misspecification and in the presence of outliers. PAC-Bayes theory demonstrates that the free energy criterion minimized by Bayesian learning is a bound on the generalization error for Gibbs predictors (i.e., for single models drawn at random from the posterior) under the assumption of sampling distributions uncontaminated by outliers. This viewpoint provides a justification for the limitations of Bayesian learning when the model is misspecified, requiring ensembling, and when data is affected by outliers. In recent work, PAC-Bayes bounds -- referred to as PAC$^m$ -- were derived to introduce free energy metrics that account for the performance of ensemble predictors, obtaining enhanced performance under misspecification. This work presents a novel robust free energy criterion that combines the generalized logarithm score function with PAC$^m$ ensemble bounds. The proposed free energy training criterion produces predictive distributions that are able to concurrently counteract the detrimental effects of misspecification -- with respect to both likelihood and prior distribution -- and outliers.

The dynamic scheduling of ultra-reliable and low-latency traffic (URLLC) in the uplink can significantly enhance the efficiency of coexisting services, such as enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) devices, by only allocating resources when necessary. The main challenge is posed by the uncertainty in the process of URLLC packet generation, which mandates the use of predictors for URLLC traffic in the coming frames. In practice, such prediction may overestimate or underestimate the amount of URLLC data to be generated, yielding either an excessive or an insufficient amount of resources to be pre-emptively allocated for URLLC packets. In this paper, we introduce a novel scheduler for URLLC packets that provides formal guarantees on reliability and latency irrespective of the quality of the URLLC traffic predictor. The proposed method leverages recent advances in online conformal prediction (CP), and follows the principle of dynamically adjusting the amount of allocated resources so as to meet reliability and latency requirements set by the designer.

When used in complex engineered systems, such as communication networks, artificial intelligence (AI) models should be not only as accurate as possible, but also well calibrated. A well-calibrated AI model is one that can reliably quantify the uncertainty of its decisions, assigning high confidence levels to decisions that are likely to be correct and low confidence levels to decisions that are likely to be erroneous. This paper investigates the application of conformal prediction as a general framework to obtain AI models that produce decisions with formal calibration guarantees. Conformal prediction transforms probabilistic predictors into set predictors that are guaranteed to contain the correct answer with a probability chosen by the designer. Such formal calibration guarantees hold irrespective of the true, unknown, distribution underlying the generation of the variables of interest, and can be defined in terms of ensemble or time-averaged probabilities. In this paper, conformal prediction is applied for the first time to the design of AI for communication systems in conjunction to both frequentist and Bayesian learning, focusing on demodulation, modulation classification, and channel prediction.

Two of the main principles underlying the life cycle of an artificial intelligence (AI) module in communication networks are adaptation and monitoring. Adaptation refers to the need to adjust the operation of an AI module depending on the current conditions; while monitoring requires measures of the reliability of an AI module's decisions. Classical frequentist learning methods for the design of AI modules fall short on both counts of adaptation and monitoring, catering to one-off training and providing overconfident decisions. This paper proposes a solution to address both challenges by integrating meta-learning with Bayesian learning. As a specific use case, the problems of demodulation and equalization over a fading channel based on the availability of few pilots are studied. Meta-learning processes pilot information from multiple frames in order to extract useful shared properties of effective demodulators across frames. The resulting trained demodulators are demonstrated, via experiments, to offer better calibrated soft decisions, at the computational cost of running an ensemble of networks at run time. The capacity to quantify uncertainty in the model parameter space is further leveraged by extending Bayesian meta-learning to an active setting. In it, the designer can select in a sequential fashion channel conditions under which to generate data for meta-learning from a channel simulator. Bayesian active meta-learning is seen in experiments to significantly reduce the number of frames required to obtain efficient adaptation procedure for new frames.

Federated learning (FL) aims at optimizing a shared global model over multiple edge devices without transmitting (private) data to the central server. While it is theoretically well-known that FL yields an optimal model -- centrally trained model assuming availability of all the edge device data at the central server -- under mild condition, in practice, it often requires massive amount of iterations until convergence, especially under presence of statistical/computational heterogeneity. This paper utilizes cyclic learning rate at the server side to reduce the number of training iterations with increased performance without any additional computational costs for both the server and the edge devices. Numerical results validate that, simply plugging-in the proposed cyclic aggregation to the existing FL algorithms effectively reduces the number of training iterations with improved performance.