Pan, Zijie
Multi-modal Time Series Analysis: A Tutorial and Survey
Jiang, Yushan, Ning, Kanghui, Pan, Zijie, Shen, Xuyang, Ni, Jingchao, Yu, Wenchao, Schneider, Anderson, Chen, Haifeng, Nevmyvaka, Yuriy, Song, Dongjin
Multi-modal time series analysis has recently emerged as a prominent research area in data mining, driven by the increasing availability of diverse data modalities, such as text, images, and structured tabular data from real-world sources. However, effective analysis of multi-modal time series is hindered by data heterogeneity, modality gap, misalignment, and inherent noise. Recent advancements in multi-modal time series methods have exploited the multi-modal context via cross-modal interactions based on deep learning methods, significantly enhancing various downstream tasks. In this tutorial and survey, we present a systematic and up-to-date overview of multi-modal time series datasets and methods. We first state the existing challenges of multi-modal time series analysis and our motivations, with a brief introduction of preliminaries. Then, we summarize the general pipeline and categorize existing methods through a unified cross-modal interaction framework encompassing fusion, alignment, and transference at different levels (\textit{i.e.}, input, intermediate, output), where key concepts and ideas are highlighted. We also discuss the real-world applications of multi-modal analysis for both standard and spatial time series, tailored to general and specific domains. Finally, we discuss future research directions to help practitioners explore and exploit multi-modal time series. The up-to-date resources are provided in the GitHub repository: https://github.com/UConn-DSIS/Multi-modal-Time-Series-Analysis
TS-RAG: Retrieval-Augmented Generation based Time Series Foundation Models are Stronger Zero-Shot Forecaster
Ning, Kanghui, Pan, Zijie, Liu, Yu, Jiang, Yushan, Zhang, James Y., Rasul, Kashif, Schneider, Anderson, Ma, Lintao, Nevmyvaka, Yuriy, Song, Dongjin
Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) and Foundation Models (FMs) have become prevalent for time series forecasting tasks. However, fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) for forecasting enables the adaptation to specific domains but may not generalize well across diverse, unseen datasets. Meanwhile, existing time series foundation models (TSFMs) lack inherent mechanisms for domain adaptation and suffer from limited interpretability, making them suboptimal for zero-shot forecasting. To this end, we present TS-RAG, a retrieval-augmented generation based time series forecasting framework that enhances the generalization capability and interpretability of TSFMs. Specifically, TS-RAG leverages pre-trained time series encoders to retrieve semantically relevant time series segments from a dedicated knowledge database, incorporating contextual patterns for the given time series query. Next, we develop a learnable Mixture-of-Experts (MoE)-based augmentation module, which dynamically fuses retrieved time series patterns with the TSFM's representation of the input query, improving forecasting accuracy without requiring task-specific fine-tuning. Thorough empirical studies on seven public benchmark datasets demonstrate that TS-RAG achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot forecasting performance, outperforming TSFMs by up to 6.51% across diverse domains and showcasing desired interpretability.
$\textbf{S}^2$IP-LLM: Semantic Space Informed Prompt Learning with LLM for Time Series Forecasting
Pan, Zijie, Jiang, Yushan, Garg, Sahil, Schneider, Anderson, Nevmyvaka, Yuriy, Song, Dongjin
Recently, there has been a growing interest in leveraging pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for various time series applications. However, the semantic space of LLMs, established through the pre-training, is still underexplored and may help yield more distinctive and informative representations to facilitate time series forecasting. To this end, we propose Semantic Space Informed Prompt learning with LLM ($S^2$IP-LLM) to align the pre-trained semantic space with time series embeddings space and perform time series forecasting based on learned prompts from the joint space. We first design a tokenization module tailored for cross-modality alignment, which explicitly concatenates patches of decomposed time series components to create embeddings that effectively encode the temporal dynamics. Next, we leverage the pre-trained word token embeddings to derive semantic anchors and align selected anchors with time series embeddings by maximizing the cosine similarity in the joint space. This way, $S^2$IP-LLM can retrieve relevant semantic anchors as prompts to provide strong indicators (context) for time series that exhibit different temporal dynamics. With thorough empirical studies on multiple benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed $S^2$IP-LLM can achieve superior forecasting performance over state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, our ablation studies and visualizations verify the necessity of prompt learning informed by semantic space.
International Trade Flow Prediction with Bilateral Trade Provisions
Pan, Zijie, Gordeev, Stepan, Zhao, Jiahui, Meng, Ziyi, Ding, Caiwen, Steinbach, Sandro, Song, Dongjin
This paper presents a novel methodology for predicting international bilateral trade flows, emphasizing the growing importance of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) in the global trade landscape. Acknowledging the limitations of traditional models like the Gravity Model of Trade, this study introduces a two-stage approach combining explainable machine learning and factorization models. The first stage employs SHAP Explainer for effective variable selection, identifying key provisions in PTAs, while the second stage utilizes Factorization Machine models to analyze the pairwise interaction effects of these provisions on trade flows. By analyzing comprehensive datasets, the paper demonstrates the efficacy of this approach. The findings not only enhance the predictive accuracy of trade flow models but also offer deeper insights into the complex dynamics of international trade, influenced by specific bilateral trade provisions.
Structural Knowledge Informed Continual Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
Pan, Zijie, Jiang, Yushan, Song, Dongjin, Garg, Sahil, Rasul, Kashif, Schneider, Anderson, Nevmyvaka, Yuriy
Recent studies in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting reveal that explicitly modeling the hidden dependencies among different time series can yield promising forecasting performance and reliable explanations. However, modeling variable dependencies remains underexplored when MTS is continuously accumulated under different regimes (stages). Due to the potential distribution and dependency disparities, the underlying model may encounter the catastrophic forgetting problem, i.e., it is challenging to memorize and infer different types of variable dependencies across different regimes while maintaining forecasting performance. To address this issue, we propose a novel Structural Knowledge Informed Continual Learning (SKI-CL) framework to perform MTS forecasting within a continual learning paradigm, which leverages structural knowledge to steer the forecasting model toward identifying and adapting to different regimes, and selects representative MTS samples from each regime for memory replay. Specifically, we develop a forecasting model based on graph structure learning, where a consistency regularization scheme is imposed between the learned variable dependencies and the structural knowledge while optimizing the forecasting objective over the MTS data. As such, MTS representations learned in each regime are associated with distinct structural knowledge, which helps the model memorize a variety of conceivable scenarios and results in accurate forecasts in the continual learning context. Meanwhile, we develop a representation-matching memory replay scheme that maximizes the temporal coverage of MTS data to efficiently preserve the underlying temporal dynamics and dependency structures of each regime. Thorough empirical studies on synthetic and real-world benchmarks validate SKI-CL's efficacy and advantages over the state-of-the-art for continual MTS forecasting tasks.
Empowering Time Series Analysis with Large Language Models: A Survey
Jiang, Yushan, Pan, Zijie, Zhang, Xikun, Garg, Sahil, Schneider, Anderson, Nevmyvaka, Yuriy, Song, Dongjin
Recently, remarkable progress has been made over large language models (LLMs), demonstrating their unprecedented capability in varieties of natural language tasks. However, completely training a large general-purpose model from the scratch is challenging for time series analysis, due to the large volumes and varieties of time series data, as well as the non-stationarity that leads to concept drift impeding continuous model adaptation and re-training. Recent advances have shown that pre-trained LLMs can be exploited to capture complex dependencies in time series data and facilitate various applications. In this survey, we provide a systematic overview of existing methods that leverage LLMs for time series analysis. Specifically, we first state the challenges and motivations of applying language models in the context of time series as well as brief preliminaries of LLMs. Next, we summarize the general pipeline for LLM-based time series analysis, categorize existing methods into different groups (i.e., direct query, tokenization, prompt design, fine-tune, and model integration), and highlight the key ideas within each group. We also discuss the applications of LLMs for both general and spatial-temporal time series data, tailored to specific domains. Finally, we thoroughly discuss future research opportunities to empower time series analysis with LLMs.
Key Information Retrieval to Classify the Unstructured Data Content of Preferential Trade Agreements
Zhao, Jiahui, Meng, Ziyi, Gordeev, Stepan, Pan, Zijie, Song, Dongjin, Steinbach, Sandro, Ding, Caiwen
With the rapid proliferation of textual data, predicting long texts has emerged as a significant challenge in the domain of natural language processing. Traditional text prediction methods encounter substantial difficulties when grappling with long texts, primarily due to the presence of redundant and irrelevant information, which impedes the model's capacity to capture pivotal insights from the text. To address this issue, we introduce a novel approach to long-text classification and prediction. Initially, we employ embedding techniques to condense the long texts, aiming to diminish the redundancy therein. Subsequently,the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) embedding method is utilized for text classification training. Experimental outcomes indicate that our method realizes considerable performance enhancements in classifying long texts of Preferential Trade Agreements. Furthermore, the condensation of text through embedding methods not only augments prediction accuracy but also substantially reduces computational complexity. Overall, this paper presents a strategy for long-text prediction, offering a valuable reference for researchers and engineers in the natural language processing sphere.