Incorporating prior knowledge of a particular task into the architecture of a learning algorithm can greatly improve generalization performance. We study here a case where we know that the function to be learned is non-decreasing in two of its arguments and convex in one of them. For this purpose we propose a class of functions similar to multi-layer neural networks but (1) that has those properties, (2) is a universal approximator of continuous functions with these and other properties. We apply this new class of functions to the task of modeling the price of call options. Experiments show improvements on regressing the price of call options using the new types of function classes that incorporate the a priori constraints.

Incorporating prior knowledge of a particular task into the architecture of a learning algorithm can greatly improve generalization performance. We study here a case where we know that the function to be learned is non-decreasing in two of its arguments and convex in one of them. For this purpose we propose a class of functions similar to multi-layer neural networks but (1) that has those properties, (2) is a universal approximator of continuous functions with these and other properties. We apply this new class of functions to the task of modeling the price of call options. Experiments show improvements on regressing the price of call options using the new types of function classes that incorporate the a priori constraints.

Incorporating prior knowledge of a particular task into the architecture of a learning algorithm can greatly improve generalization performance. We study here a case where we know that the function to be learned is non-decreasing in two of its arguments and convex in one of them. For this purpose we propose a class of functions similar to multi-layer neural networks but (1) that has those properties, (2) is a universal approximator of continuous functions with these and other properties. We apply this new class of functions to the task of modeling the price of call options. Experiments show improvements on regressing the price of call options using the new types of function classes that incorporate the a priori constraints. 1 Introduction Incorporating a priori knowledge of a particular task into a learning algorithm helps reducing thenecessary complexity of the learner and generally improves performance, if the incorporated knowledge is relevant to the task and really corresponds to the generating process ofthe data. In this paper we consider prior knowledge on the positivity of some first and second derivatives of the function to be learned. In particular such constraints have applications to modeling the price of European stock options. Based on the Black-Scholes formula, the price of a call stock option is monotonically increasing in both the "moneyness" andtime to maturity of the option, and it is convex in the "moneyness". Section 3 better explains these terms and stock options.

In order to to compare learning algorithms, experimental results reported in the machine learning litterature often use statistical tests of significance. Unfortunately,most of these tests do not take into account the variability due to the choice of training set. We perform a theoretical investigation of the variance of the cross-validation estimate of the generalization errorthat takes into account the variability due to the choice of training sets. This allows us to propose two new ways to estimate this variance. We show, via simulations, that these new statistics perform well relative to the statistics considered by Dietterich (Dietterich, 1998). 1 Introduction When applying a learning algorithm (or comparing several algorithms), one is typically interested in estimating its generalization error. Its point estimation is rather trivial through cross-validation. Providing a variance estimate of that estimation, so that hypothesis testing and/orconfidence intervals are possible, is more difficult, especially, as pointed out in (Hinton et aI., 1995), if one wants to take into account the variability due to the choice of the training sets (Breiman, 1996). A notable effort in that direction is Dietterich's work (Dietterich, 1998).Careful investigation of the variance to be estimated allows us to provide new variance estimates, which tum out to perform well. Let us first layout the framework in which we shall work.

In order to to compare learning algorithms, experimental results reported in the machine learning litterature often use statistical tests of significance. Unfortunately, most of these tests do not take into account the variability due to the choice of training set. We perform a theoretical investigation of the variance of the cross-validation estimate of the generalization error that takes into account the variability due to the choice of training sets. This allows us to propose two new ways to estimate this variance. We show, via simulations, that these new statistics perform well relative to the statistics considered by Dietterich (Dietterich, 1998). 1 Introduction When applying a learning algorithm (or comparing several algorithms), one is typically interested in estimating its generalization error. Its point estimation is rather trivial through cross-validation.