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Collaborating Authors

 Mukherjee, Sumantrak


Neural Spatiotemporal Point Processes: Trends and Challenges

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Spatiotemporal point processes (STPPs) are probabilistic models for events occurring in continuous space and time. Real-world event data often exhibit intricate dependencies and heterogeneous dynamics. By incorporating modern deep learning techniques, STPPs can model these complexities more effectively than traditional approaches. Consequently, the fusion of neural methods with STPPs has become an active and rapidly evolving research area. In this review, we categorize existing approaches, unify key design choices, and explain the challenges of working with this data modality. We further highlight emerging trends and diverse application domains. Finally, we identify open challenges and gaps in the literature.


Graph Agnostic Causal Bayesian Optimisation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the problem of globally optimising a target variable of an unknown causal graph on which a sequence of soft or hard interventions can be performed. The problem of optimising the target variable associated with a causal graph is formalised as Causal Bayesian Optimisation (CBO). We study the CBO problem under the cumulative regret objective with unknown causal graphs for two settings, namely structural causal models with hard interventions and function networks with soft interventions. We propose Graph Agnostic Causal Bayesian Optimisation (GACBO), an algorithm that actively discovers the causal structure that contributes to achieving optimal rewards. GACBO seeks to balance exploiting the actions that give the best rewards against exploring the causal structures and functions. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first to study causal Bayesian optimization with cumulative regret objectives in scenarios where the graph is unknown or partially known. We show our proposed algorithm outperforms baselines in simulated experiments and real-world applications.


Quantitative knowledge retrieval from large language models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) have been extensively studied for their abilities to generate convincing natural language sequences, however their utility for quantitative information retrieval is less well understood. In this paper we explore the feasibility of LLMs as a mechanism for quantitative knowledge retrieval to aid data analysis tasks such as elicitation of prior distributions for Bayesian models and imputation of missing data. We present a prompt engineering framework, treating an LLM as an interface to a latent space of scientific literature, comparing responses in different contexts and domains against more established approaches. Implications and challenges of using LLMs as 'experts' are discussed.


X Hacking: The Threat of Misguided AutoML

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning models are increasingly used to make decisions that affect human lives, society and the environment, in areas such as medical diagnosis, criminal justice and public policy. However, these models are often complex and opaque--especially with the increasing ubiquity of deep learning and generative AI--making it difficult to understand how and why they produce certain predictions. Explainable AI (XAI) is a field of research that aims to provide interpretable and transparent explanations for the outputs of machine learning models. The growing demand for model interpretability, along with a trend for'data-driven' decisions, has the unexpected side-effect of creating an increased incentive for abuse and manipulation. Data analysts may have a vested interest or be pressured to present a certain explanation for a model's predictions, whether to confirm a pre-specified conclusion, to conceal a hidden agenda, or to avoid ethical scrutiny. In this paper, we introduce the concept of explanation hacking or X-hacking, a form of p-hacking applied to XAI metrics. X-hacking refers to the practice of deliberately searching for and selecting models that produce a desired explanation while maintaining'acceptable' predictive performance, according to some benchmark. Unlike fairwashing attacks, X-hacking does not involve manipulating the model architecture or its explanations; rather it explores plausible combinations of analysis decisions.