This article introduces the Event based Prediction Suffix Tree (EPST), a biologically inspired, event-based prediction algorithm. The EPST learns a model online based on the statistics of an event based input and can make predictions over multiple overlapping patterns. The EPST uses a representation specific to event based data, defined as a portion of the power set of event subsequences within a short context window. It is explainable, and possesses many promising properties such as fault tolerance, resistance to event noise, as well as the capability for one-shot learning. The computational features of the EPST are examined in a synthetic data prediction task with additive event noise, event jitter, and dropout. The resulting algorithm outputs predicted projections for the near term future of the signal, which may be applied to tasks such as event based anomaly detection or pattern recognition.

Experience constantly shapes neural circuits through a variety of plasticity mechanisms. While the functional roles of some plasticity mechanisms are well-understood, it remains unclear how changes in neural excitability contribute to learning. Here, we develop a normative interpretation of intrinsic plasticity (IP) as a key component of unsupervised learning. We introduce a novel generative mixture model that accounts for the class-specific statistics of stimulus intensities, and we derive a neural circuit that learns the input classes and their intensities. We will analytically show that inference and learning for our generative model can be achieved by a neural circuit with intensity-sensitive neurons equipped with a specific form of IP. Numerical experiments verify our analytical derivations and show robust behavior for artificial and natural stimuli. Our results link IP to non-trivial input statistics, in particular the statistics of stimulus intensities for classes to which a neuron is sensitive. More generally, our work paves the way toward new classification algorithms that are robust to intensity variations.