Scaling laws are useful guides for derisking expensive training runs, as they predict performance of large models using cheaper, small-scale experiments. However, there remain gaps between current scaling studies and how language models are ultimately trained and evaluated. For instance, scaling is usually studied in the compute-optimal training regime (i.e., "Chinchilla optimal" regime). In contrast, models are often over-trained to reduce inference costs. Moreover, scaling laws mostly predict loss on next-token prediction, but models are usually compared on downstream task performance. To address both shortcomings, we create a testbed of 104 models with 0.011B to 6.9B parameters trained with various numbers of tokens on three data distributions. First, we fit scaling laws that extrapolate in both the amount of over-training and the number of model parameters. This enables us to predict the validation loss of a 1.4B parameter, 900B token run (i.e., 32$\times$ over-trained) and a 6.9B parameter, 138B token run (i.e., a compute-optimal run)$\unicode{x2014}$each from experiments that take 300$\times$ less compute. Second, we relate the perplexity of a language model to its downstream task performance by proposing a power law. We use this law to predict top-1 error averaged over downstream tasks for the two aforementioned models, using experiments that take 20$\times$ less compute. Our experiments are available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/scaling.

Linear transformers have emerged as a subquadratic-time alternative to softmax attention and have garnered significant interest due to their fixed-size recurrent state that lowers inference cost. However, their original formulation suffers from poor scaling and underperforms compute-matched transformers. Recent linear models such as RWKV and Mamba have attempted to address these shortcomings by proposing novel time-mixing and gating architectures, but pre-training large language models requires significant data and compute investments. Thus, the search for subquadratic architectures is limited by the availability of compute and quality pre-training datasets. As a cost-effective alternative to pre-training linear transformers, we propose Scalable UPtraining for Recurrent Attention (SUPRA). We present a method to uptrain existing large pre-trained transformers into Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) with a modest compute budget. This allows us to leverage the strong pre-training data and performance of existing transformer LLMs, while requiring 5% of the training cost. We find that our linearization technique leads to competitive performance on standard benchmarks, but we identify persistent in-context learning and long-context modeling shortfalls for even the largest linear models. Our code and models can be found at https://github.com/TRI-ML/linear_open_lm.

The creation of large, diverse, high-quality robot manipulation datasets is an important stepping stone on the path toward more capable and robust robotic manipulation policies. However, creating such datasets is challenging: collecting robot manipulation data in diverse environments poses logistical and safety challenges and requires substantial investments in hardware and human labour. As a result, even the most general robot manipulation policies today are mostly trained on data collected in a small number of environments with limited scene and task diversity. In this work, we introduce DROID (Distributed Robot Interaction Dataset), a diverse robot manipulation dataset with 76k demonstration trajectories or 350 hours of interaction data, collected across 564 scenes and 84 tasks by 50 data collectors in North America, Asia, and Europe over the course of 12 months. We demonstrate that training with DROID leads to policies with higher performance and improved generalization ability. We open source the full dataset, policy learning code, and a detailed guide for reproducing our robot hardware setup.

Imitation Learning (IL) is a widely used framework for learning imitative behavior from demonstrations. It is especially appealing for solving complex real-world tasks where handcrafting reward function is difficult, or when the goal is to mimic human expert behavior. However, the learned imitative policy can only follow the behavior in the demonstration. When applying the imitative policy, we may need to customize the policy behavior to meet different requirements coming from diverse downstream tasks. Meanwhile, we still want the customized policy to maintain its imitative nature. To this end, we formulate a new problem setting called policy customization. It defines the learning task as training a policy that inherits the characteristics of the prior policy while satisfying some additional requirements imposed by a target downstream task. We propose a novel and principled approach to interpret and determine the trade-off between the two task objectives. Specifically, we formulate the customization problem as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) with a reward function that combines 1) the inherent reward of the demonstration; and 2) the add-on reward specified by the downstream task. We propose a novel framework, Residual Q-learning, which can solve the formulated MDP by leveraging the prior policy without knowing the inherent reward or value function of the prior policy. We derive a family of residual Q-learning algorithms that can realize offline and online policy customization, and show that the proposed algorithms can effectively accomplish policy customization tasks in various environments. Demo videos and code are available on our website: https://sites.google.com/view/residualq-learning.

In safety-critical and interactive control tasks such as autonomous driving, the robot must successfully account for uncertainty of the future motion of surrounding humans. To achieve this, many contemporary approaches decompose the decision-making pipeline into prediction and planning modules [1-5] for maintainability, debuggability, and interpretability. A prediction module, often learned from data, first produces likely future trajectories of surrounding agents, which are then consumed by a planning module for computing safe robot actions. Recent works [6, 7] further propose to couple prediction with risk-sensitive planning for enhanced safety, wherein the planner computes and minimizes a risk measure [8] of its planned trajectory based on probabilistic forecasts of human motion from the data-driven predictor. A risk measure is a functional that maps a cost distribution to a deterministic real number, which lies between the expected cost and the worst-case cost [9].

The ability to learn reward functions plays an important role in enabling the deployment of intelligent agents in the real world. However, comparing reward functions, for example as a means of evaluating reward learning methods, presents a challenge. Reward functions are typically compared by considering the behavior of optimized policies, but this approach conflates deficiencies in the reward function with those of the policy search algorithm used to optimize it. To address this challenge, Gleave et al. (2020) propose the Equivalent-Policy Invariant Comparison (EPIC) distance. EPIC avoids policy optimization, but in doing so requires computing reward values at transitions that may be impossible under the system dynamics. This is problematic for learned reward functions because it entails evaluating them outside of their training distribution, resulting in inaccurate reward values that we show can render EPIC ineffective at comparing rewards. To address this problem, we propose the Dynamics-Aware Reward Distance (DARD), a new reward pseudometric. DARD uses an approximate transition model of the environment to transform reward functions into a form that allows for comparisons that are invariant to reward shaping while only evaluating reward functions on transitions close to their training distribution. Experiments in simulated physical domains demonstrate that DARD enables reliable reward comparisons without policy optimization and is significantly more predictive than baseline methods of downstream policy performance when dealing with learned reward functions.

Figure 1: A driving scene top view representation with superposed forecast probability density functions represented in blue shades in log scale. The forcasting model uses the past trajectories plotted in gray as input. Abstract -- V ehicle trajectory forecasting models use a wide variety of frameworks for interaction and multi-modality. They rely on various representations of the road scene and definitions of maneuvers. In this paper we present a simple model that simultaneously forecasts each vehicle position on a road scene as a sequence of multi-modal probability density functions. This relies solely on vehicle position tracks and does not define maneuvers. We produce an easily extendable model that combines these predictive capabilities while surpassing state-of-the-art results. Its architecture uses multi-head attention to account for complete interactions between all vehicles, and long short-term memory (LSTM) layers for encoding and forecasting. I. INTRODUCTION Automation of driving tasks aims for safety and comfort improvements. For that purpose, most Autonomous Driving (AD) system relies on the anticipation of the traffic scene movements.