Martinuzzi, Francesco
AI for Extreme Event Modeling and Understanding: Methodologies and Challenges
Camps-Valls, Gustau, Fernández-Torres, Miguel-Ángel, Cohrs, Kai-Hendrik, Höhl, Adrian, Castelletti, Andrea, Pacal, Aytac, Robin, Claire, Martinuzzi, Francesco, Papoutsis, Ioannis, Prapas, Ioannis, Pérez-Aracil, Jorge, Weigel, Katja, Gonzalez-Calabuig, Maria, Reichstein, Markus, Rabel, Martin, Giuliani, Matteo, Mahecha, Miguel, Popescu, Oana-Iuliana, Pellicer-Valero, Oscar J., Ouala, Said, Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho, Sippel, Sebastian, Kondylatos, Spyros, Happé, Tamara, Williams, Tristan
In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) has deeply impacted various fields, including Earth system sciences. Here, AI improved weather forecasting, model emulation, parameter estimation, and the prediction of extreme events. However, the latter comes with specific challenges, such as developing accurate predictors from noisy, heterogeneous and limited annotated data. This paper reviews how AI is being used to analyze extreme events (like floods, droughts, wildfires and heatwaves), highlighting the importance of creating accurate, transparent, and reliable AI models. We discuss the hurdles of dealing with limited data, integrating information in real-time, deploying models, and making them understandable, all crucial for gaining the trust of stakeholders and meeting regulatory needs. We provide an overview of how AI can help identify and explain extreme events more effectively, improving disaster response and communication. We emphasize the need for collaboration across different fields to create AI solutions that are practical, understandable, and trustworthy for analyzing and predicting extreme events. Such collaborative efforts aim to enhance disaster readiness and disaster risk reduction.
Recurrent Neural Networks for Modelling Gross Primary Production
Montero, David, Mahecha, Miguel D., Martinuzzi, Francesco, Aybar, César, Klosterhalfen, Anne, Knohl, Alexander, Koebsch, Franziska, Anaya, Jesús, Wieneke, Sebastian
Accurate quantification of Gross Primary Production (GPP) is crucial for understanding terrestrial carbon dynamics. It represents the largest atmosphere-to-land CO$_2$ flux, especially significant for forests. Eddy Covariance (EC) measurements are widely used for ecosystem-scale GPP quantification but are globally sparse. In areas lacking local EC measurements, remote sensing (RS) data are typically utilised to estimate GPP after statistically relating them to in-situ data. Deep learning offers novel perspectives, and the potential of recurrent neural network architectures for estimating daily GPP remains underexplored. This study presents a comparative analysis of three architectures: Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTMs). Our findings reveal comparable performance across all models for full-year and growing season predictions. Notably, LSTMs outperform in predicting climate-induced GPP extremes. Furthermore, our analysis highlights the importance of incorporating radiation and RS inputs (optical, temperature, and radar) for accurate GPP predictions, particularly during climate extremes.
ReservoirComputing.jl: An Efficient and Modular Library for Reservoir Computing Models
Martinuzzi, Francesco, Rackauckas, Chris, Abdelrehim, Anas, Mahecha, Miguel D., Mora, Karin
Time series modeling is a very common technique throughout many areas of machine learning. However, many standard recurrent models are known to be susceptible to problems such as the vanishing gradient [Pascanu et al., 2013] or the extreme sensitivity of chaotic systems to their parameterization [Wiggins et al., 2003]. To counter these issues reservoir computing (RC) techniques were introduced as recurrent models which can be trained without requiring gradient-based approaches [Lukoševičius and Jaeger, 2009]. Independently proposed as echo state networks (ESNs) [Jaeger, 2001] and liquid state machines (LSMs) [Maass et al., 2002], these architectures are based on the expansion of the input data using a fixed random internal layer, known as the reservoir, and the subsequent mapping of the reservoir to match an output.