Large Language Models (LLMs) tend to be unreliable in the factuality of their answers. To address this problem, NLP researchers have proposed a range of techniques to estimate LLM's confidence over facts. However, due to the lack of a systematic comparison, it is not clear how the different methods compare to one another. To fill this gap, we present a survey and empirical comparison of estimators of factual confidence. We define an experimental framework allowing for fair comparison, covering both fact-verification and question answering. Our experiments across a series of LLMs indicate that trained hidden-state probes provide the most reliable confidence estimates, albeit at the expense of requiring access to weights and training data. We also conduct a deeper assessment of factual confidence by measuring the consistency of model behavior under meaning-preserving variations in the input. We find that the confidence of LLMs is often unstable across semantically equivalent inputs, suggesting that there is much room for improvement of the stability of models' parametric knowledge. Our code is available at (https://github.com/amazon-science/factual-confidence-of-llms).

As large pre-trained image-processing neural networks are being embedded in autonomous agents such as self-driving cars or robots, the question arises of how such systems can communicate with each other about the surrounding world, despite their different architectures and training regimes. As a first step in this direction, we systematically explore the task of \textit{referential communication} in a community of heterogeneous state-of-the-art pre-trained visual networks, showing that they can develop, in a self-supervised way, a shared protocol to refer to a target object among a set of candidates. This shared protocol can also be used, to some extent, to communicate about previously unseen object categories of different granularity. Moreover, a visual network that was not initially part of an existing community can learn the community's protocol with remarkable ease. Finally, we study, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the properties of the emergent protocol, providing some evidence that it is capturing high-level semantic features of objects.