This paper proposes a new approach to sales forecasting for new products with long lead time but short product life cycle. These SKUs are usually sold for one season only, without any replenishments. An exponential factorization machine (EFM) sales forecast model is developed to solve this problem which not only considers SKU attributes, but also pairwise interactions. The EFM model is significantly different from the original Factorization Machines (FM) from two-fold: (1) the attribute-level formulation for explanatory variables and (2) exponential formulation for the positive response variable. The attribute-level formation excludes infeasible intra-attribute interactions and results in more efficient feature engineering comparing with the conventional one-hot encoding, while the exponential formulation is demonstrated more effective than the log-transformation for the positive but not skewed distributed responses. In order to estimate the parameters, percentage error squares (PES) and error squares (ES) are minimized by a proposed adaptive batch gradient descent method over the training set. Real-world data provided by a footwear retailer in Singapore is used for testing the proposed approach. The forecasting performance in terms of both mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean absolute error (MAE) compares favourably with not only off-the-shelf models but also results reported by extant sales and demand forecasting studies. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is also demonstrated by two external public datasets. Moreover, we prove the theoretical relationships between PES and ES minimization, and present an important property of the PES minimization for regression models; that it trains models to underestimate data. This property fits the situation of sales forecasting where unit-holding cost is much greater than the unit-shortage cost.

The defining characteristic the SDVRP, where vehicle capacity and customer demands of the SDVRP that distinguishes it from the classical are not required to be integer numbers, the number of vehicles vehicle routing problem (VRP) is that each customer is not limited to the minimum possible number, and can be served by more than one vehicle. Obviously, when the customer demands may exceed the vehicle capacity. The the demand of a customer is lager than the vehicle capacity, main contributions are threefold. First, we find a novel way it has to be split and the customer has to be visited more to represent the solutions of the SDVRP, which is the combination than once. As shown by (Dror and Trudeau 1989), when all of a set of vehicle routes and a forest. Second, based customer demands are less than or equal to the vehicle capacity, on this solution representation, we propose three classes of split delivery can also lead to substantial cost savings.