Causal dynamics learning has recently emerged as a promising approach to enhancing robustness in reinforcement learning (RL). Typically, the goal is to build a dynamics model that makes predictions based on the causal relationships among the entities. Despite the fact that causal connections often manifest only under certain contexts, existing approaches overlook such fine-grained relationships and lack a detailed understanding of the dynamics. In this work, we propose a novel dynamics model that infers fine-grained causal structures and employs them for prediction, leading to improved robustness in RL. The key idea is to jointly learn the dynamics model with a discrete latent variable that quantizes the state-action space into subgroups. This leads to recognizing meaningful context that displays sparse dependencies, where causal structures are learned for each subgroup throughout the training. Experimental results demonstrate the robustness of our method to unseen states and locally spurious correlations in downstream tasks where fine-grained causal reasoning is crucial. We further illustrate the effectiveness of our subgroup-based approach with quantization in discovering fine-grained causal relationships compared to prior methods.

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has showcased its efficacy across a broad spectrum of decision-making problems. However, its performance often degrades under vast combinatorial action space, especially where an action is composed of multiple sub-actions. In this work, we propose an action abstraction based on the compositional structure between a state and sub-actions for improving the efficiency of MCTS under a factored action space. Our method learns a latent dynamics model with an auxiliary network that captures sub-actions relevant to the transition on the current state, which we call state-conditioned action abstraction. Notably, it infers such compositional relationships from high-dimensional observations without the known environment model. During the tree traversal, our method constructs the state-conditioned action abstraction for each node on-the-fly, reducing the search space by discarding the exploration of redundant sub-actions. Experimental results demonstrate the superior sample efficiency of our method compared to vanilla MuZero, which suffers from expansive action space.

Conditional independence provides a way to understand causal relationships among the variables of interest. An underlying system may exhibit more fine-grained causal relationships especially between a variable and its parents, which will be called the local independence relationships. One of the most widely studied local relationships is Context-Specific Independence (CSI), which holds in a specific assignment of conditioned variables. However, its applicability is often limited since it does not allow continuous variables: data conditioned to the specific value of a continuous variable contains few instances, if not none, making it infeasible to test independence. In this work, we define and characterize the local independence relationship that holds in a specific set of joint assignments of parental variables, which we call context-set specific independence (CSSI). We then provide a canonical representation of CSSI and prove its fundamental properties. Based on our theoretical findings, we cast the problem of discovering multiple CSSI relationships in a system as finding a partition of the joint outcome space. Finally, we propose a novel method, coined neural contextual decomposition (NCD), which learns such partition by imposing each set to induce CSSI via modeling a conditional distribution. We empirically demonstrate that the proposed method successfully discovers the ground truth local independence relationships in both synthetic dataset and complex system reflecting the real-world physical dynamics.

Scaling laws have allowed Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) into the field of causal reasoning. Causal reasoning of PLM relies solely on text-based descriptions, in contrast to causal discovery which aims to determine the causal relationships between variables utilizing data. Recently, there has been current research regarding a method that mimics causal discovery by aggregating the outcomes of repetitive causal reasoning, achieved through specifically designed prompts. It highlights the usefulness of PLMs in discovering cause and effect, which is often limited by a lack of data, especially when dealing with multiple variables. Conversely, the characteristics of PLMs which are that PLMs do not analyze data and they are highly dependent on prompt design leads to a crucial limitation for directly using PLMs in causal discovery. Accordingly, PLM-based causal reasoning deeply depends on the prompt design and carries out the risk of overconfidence and false predictions in determining causal relationships. In this paper, we empirically demonstrate the aforementioned limitations of PLM-based causal reasoning through experiments on physics-inspired synthetic data. Then, we propose a new framework that integrates prior knowledge obtained from PLM with a causal discovery algorithm. This is accomplished by initializing an adjacency matrix for causal discovery and incorporating regularization using prior knowledge. Our proposed framework not only demonstrates improved performance through the integration of PLM and causal discovery but also suggests how to leverage PLM-extracted prior knowledge with existing causal discovery algorithms.

The Ladder of Causation describes three qualitatively different types of activities an agent may be interested in engaging in, namely, seeing (observational), doing (interventional), and imagining (counterfactual) (Pearl and Mackenzie, 2018). The inferential challenge imposed by the causal hierarchy is that data is collected by an agent observing or intervening in a system (layers 1 and 2), while its goal may be to understand what would have happened had it taken a different course of action, contrary to what factually ended up happening (layer 3). While there exists a solid understanding of the conditions under which cross-layer inferences are allowed from observations to interventions, the results are somewhat scarcer when targeting counterfactual quantities. In this paper, we study the identification of nested counterfactuals from an arbitrary combination of observations and experiments. Specifically, building on a more explicit definition of nested counterfactuals, we prove the counterfactual unnesting theorem (CUT), which allows one to map arbitrary nested counterfactuals to unnested ones. For instance, applications in mediation and fairness analysis usually evoke notions of direct, indirect, and spurious effects, which naturally require nesting. Second, we introduce a sufficient and necessary graphical condition for counterfactual identification from an arbitrary combination of observational and experimental distributions. Lastly, we develop an efficient and complete algorithm for identifying nested counterfactuals; failure of the algorithm returning an expression for a query implies it is not identifiable.

As virtually all aspects of our lives are increasingly impacted by algorithmic decision making systems, it is incumbent upon us as a society to ensure such systems do not become instruments of unfair discrimination on the basis of gender, race, ethnicity, religion, etc. We consider the problem of determining whether the decisions made by such systems are discriminatory, through the lens of causal models. We introduce two definitions of group fairness grounded in causality: fair on average causal effect (FACE), and fair on average causal effect on the treated (FACT). We use the Rubin-Neyman potential outcomes framework for the analysis of cause-effect relationships to robustly estimate FACE and FACT. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach on synthetic data. Our analyses of two real-world data sets, the Adult income data set from the UCI repository (with gender as the protected attribute), and the NYC Stop and Frisk data set (with race as the protected attribute), show that the evidence of discrimination obtained by FACE and FACT, or lack thereof, is often in agreement with the findings from other studies. We further show that FACT, being somewhat more nuanced compared to FACE, can yield findings of discrimination that differ from those obtained using FACE.

We study the problem of identifying the best action in a sequential decision-making setting when the reward distributions of the arms exhibit a non-trivial dependence structure, which is governed by the underlying causal model of the domain where the agent is deployed. In this setting, playing an arm corresponds to intervening on a set of variables and setting them to specific values. In this paper, we show that whenever the underlying causal model is not taken into account during the decision-making process, the standard strategies of simultaneously intervening on all variables or on all the subsets of the variables may, in general, lead to suboptimal policies, regardless of the number of interventions performed by the agent in the environment. We formally acknowledge this phenomenon and investigate structural properties implied by the underlying causal model, which lead to a complete characterization of the relationships between the arms' distributions. We leverage this characterization to build a new algorithm that takes as input a causal structure and finds a minimal, sound, and complete set of qualified arms that an agent should play to maximize its expected reward. We empirically demonstrate that the new strategy learns an optimal policy and leads to orders of magnitude faster convergence rates when compared with its causal-insensitive counterparts.

We study the problem of identifying the best action in a sequential decision-making setting when the reward distributions of the arms exhibit a non-trivial dependence structure, which is governed by the underlying causal model of the domain where the agent is deployed. In this setting, playing an arm corresponds to intervening on a set of variables and setting them to specific values. In this paper, we show that whenever the underlying causal model is not taken into account during the decision-making process, the standard strategies of simultaneously intervening on all variables or on all the subsets of the variables may, in general, lead to suboptimal policies, regardless of the number of interventions performed by the agent in the environment. We formally acknowledge this phenomenon and investigate structural properties implied by the underlying causal model, which lead to a complete characterization of the relationships between the arms' distributions. We leverage this characterization to build a new algorithm that takes as input a causal structure and finds a minimal, sound, and complete set of qualified arms that an agent should play to maximize its expected reward. We empirically demonstrate that the new strategy learns an optimal policy and leads to orders of magnitude faster convergence rates when compared with its causal-insensitive counterparts.

Many applications call for learning causal models from relational data. We investigate Relational Causal Models (RCM) under relational counterparts of adjacency-faithfulness and orientation-faithfulness, yielding a simple approach to identifying a subset of relational d-separation queries needed for determining the structure of an RCM using d-separation against an unrolled DAG representation of the RCM. We provide original theoretical analysis that offers the basis of a sound and efficient algorithm for learning the structure of an RCM from relational data. We describe RCD-Light, a sound and efficient constraint-based algorithm that is guaranteed to yield a correct partially-directed RCM structure with at least as many edges oriented as in that produced by RCD, the only other existing algorithm for learning RCM. We show that unlike RCD, which requires exponential time and space, RCD-Light requires only polynomial time and space to orient the dependencies of a sparse RCM.

This paper considers the problem of transferring experimental findings learned from multiple heterogeneous domains to a target environment, in which only limited experiments can be performed. We reduce questions of transportability from multiple domains and with limited scope to symbolic derivations in the do-calculus, thus extending the treatment of transportability from full experiments introduced in Pearl and Bareinboim (2011). We further provide different graphical and algorithmic conditions for computing the transport formula for this setting, that is, a way of fusing the observational and experimental information scattered throughout different domains to synthesize a consistent estimate of the desired effects.