Next-token prediction with the logarithmic loss is a cornerstone of autoregressive sequence modeling, but, in practice, suffers from error amplification, where errors in the model compound and generation quality degrades as sequence length $H$ increases. From a theoretical perspective, this phenomenon should not appear in well-specified settings, and, indeed, a growing body of empirical work hypothesizes that misspecification, where the learner is not sufficiently expressive to represent the target distribution, may be the root cause. Under misspecification -- where the goal is to learn as well as the best-in-class model up to a multiplicative approximation factor $C\geq 1$ -- we confirm that $C$ indeed grows with $H$ for next-token prediction, lending theoretical support to this empirical hypothesis. We then ask whether this mode of error amplification is avoidable algorithmically, computationally, or information-theoretically, and uncover inherent computational-statistical tradeoffs. We show: (1) Information-theoretically, one can avoid error amplification and achieve $C=O(1)$. (2) Next-token prediction can be made robust so as to achieve $C=\tilde O(H)$, representing moderate error amplification, but this is an inherent barrier: any next-token prediction-style objective must suffer $C=\Omega(H)$. (3) For the natural testbed of autoregressive linear models, no computationally efficient algorithm can achieve sub-polynomial approximation factor $C=e^{(\log H)^{1-\Omega(1)}}$; however, at least for binary token spaces, one can smoothly trade compute for statistical power and improve on $C=\Omega(H)$ in sub-exponential time. Our results have consequences in the more general setting of imitation learning, where the widely-used behavior cloning algorithm generalizes next-token prediction.

Recent work in language modeling has raised the possibility of self-improvement, where a language models evaluates and refines its own generations to achieve higher performance without external feedback. It is impossible for this self-improvement to create information that is not already in the model, so why should we expect that this will lead to improved capabilities? We offer a new perspective on the capabilities of self-improvement through a lens we refer to as sharpening. Motivated by the observation that language models are often better at verifying response quality than they are at generating correct responses, we formalize self-improvement as using the model itself as a verifier during post-training in order to ``sharpen'' the model to one placing large mass on high-quality sequences, thereby amortizing the expensive inference-time computation of generating good sequences. We begin by introducing a new statistical framework for sharpening in which the learner aims to sharpen a pre-trained base policy via sample access, and establish fundamental limits. Then we analyze two natural families of self-improvement algorithms based on SFT and RLHF. We find that (i) the SFT-based approach is minimax optimal whenever the initial model has sufficient coverage, but (ii) the RLHF-based approach can improve over SFT-based self-improvement by leveraging online exploration, bypassing the need for coverage. Finally, we empirically validate the sharpening mechanism via inference-time and amortization experiments. We view these findings as a starting point toward a foundational understanding that can guide the design and evaluation of self-improvement algorithms.

Real-world applications of reinforcement learning often involve environments where agents operate on complex, high-dimensional observations, but the underlying (''latent'') dynamics are comparatively simple. However, outside of restrictive settings such as small latent spaces, the fundamental statistical requirements and algorithmic principles for reinforcement learning under latent dynamics are poorly understood. This paper addresses the question of reinforcement learning under $\textit{general}$ latent dynamics from a statistical and algorithmic perspective. On the statistical side, our main negative result shows that most well-studied settings for reinforcement learning with function approximation become intractable when composed with rich observations; we complement this with a positive result, identifying latent pushforward coverability as a general condition that enables statistical tractability. Algorithmically, we develop provably efficient observable-to-latent reductions -- that is, reductions that transform an arbitrary algorithm for the latent MDP into an algorithm that can operate on rich observations -- in two settings: one where the agent has access to hindsight observations of the latent dynamics [LADZ23], and one where the agent can estimate self-predictive latent models [SAGHCB20]. Together, our results serve as a first step toward a unified statistical and algorithmic theory for reinforcement learning under latent dynamics.

Language model alignment methods, such as reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), have led to impressive advances in language model capabilities, but existing techniques are limited by a widely observed phenomenon known as overoptimization, where the quality of the language model plateaus or degrades over the course of the alignment process. Overoptimization is often attributed to overfitting to an inaccurate reward model, and while it can be mitigated through online data collection, this is infeasible in many settings. This raises a fundamental question: Do existing offline alignment algorithms make the most of the data they have, or can their sample-efficiency be improved further? We address this question with a new algorithm for offline alignment, $\chi^2$-Preference Optimization ($\chi$PO). $\chi$PO is a one-line change to Direct Preference Optimization (DPO; Rafailov et al., 2023), which only involves modifying the logarithmic link function in the DPO objective. Despite this minimal change, $\chi$PO implicitly implements the principle of pessimism in the face of uncertainty via regularization with the $\chi^2$-divergence -- which quantifies uncertainty more effectively than KL-regularization -- and provably alleviates overoptimization, achieving sample-complexity guarantees based on single-policy concentrability -- the gold standard in offline reinforcement learning. $\chi$PO's simplicity and strong guarantees make it the first practical and general-purpose offline alignment algorithm that is provably robust to overoptimization.

We investigate the extent to which contemporary Large Language Models (LLMs) can engage in exploration, a core capability in reinforcement learning and decision making. We focus on native performance of existing LLMs, without training interventions. We deploy LLMs as agents in simple multi-armed bandit environments, specifying the environment description and interaction history entirely in-context, i.e., within the LLM prompt. We experiment with GPT-3.5, GPT-4, and Llama2, using a variety of prompt designs, and find that the models do not robustly engage in exploration without substantial interventions: i) Across all of our experiments, only one configuration resulted in satisfactory exploratory behavior: GPT-4 with chain-of-thought reasoning and an externally summarized interaction history, presented as sufficient statistics; ii) All other configurations did not result in robust exploratory behavior, including those with chain-of-thought reasoning but unsummarized history. Although these findings can be interpreted positively, they suggest that external summarization -- which may not be possible in more complex settings -- is important for obtaining desirable behavior from LLM agents. We conclude that non-trivial algorithmic interventions, such as fine-tuning or dataset curation, may be required to empower LLM-based decision making agents in complex settings.

In such settings, the learner aims to find a well performing policy by repeated interactions with the environment to acquire knowledge. Due to the high dimensionality of the problem, function approximation techniques are used to generalize the knowledge acquired across the state and action space. Under the broad category of function approximation, model-free RL stands out as a particularly popular approach due to its simplicity of implementation and relatively low sample efficiency in practice. In model-free RL, the learner uses function approximation (e.g., an expressive function class like deep neural networks) to model the state-action value function of various policies in the underlying MDP. In fact, the combination of model-free RL with various empirical exploration heuristics has led to notable empirical advances, including breakthroughs in game playing (Silver et al., 2016; Berner et al., 2019), robot manipulation (Andrychowicz et al., 2020), and self-driving (Chen et al., 2019). Theoretical advancements have paralleled the practical successes in RL, with tremendous progress in recent years in building rigorous statistical foundations to understand what structures in the environment and the function class suffice for sample-efficient RL.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has emerged as a central tool for language model alignment. We consider online exploration in RLHF, which exploits interactive access to human or AI feedback by deliberately encouraging the model to produce diverse, maximally informative responses. By allowing RLHF to confidently stray from the pre-trained model, online exploration offers the possibility of novel, potentially super-human capabilities, but its full potential as a paradigm for language model training has yet to be realized, owing to computational and statistical bottlenecks in directly adapting existing reinforcement learning techniques. We propose a new algorithm for online exploration in RLHF, Exploratory Preference Optimization (XPO), which is simple and practical -- a one-line change to (online) Direct Preference Optimization (DPO; Rafailov et al., 2023) -- yet enjoys the strongest known provable guarantees and promising empirical performance. XPO augments the DPO objective with a novel and principled exploration bonus, empowering the algorithm to explore outside the support of the initial model and human feedback data. In theory, we show that XPO is provably sample-efficient and converges to a near-optimal language model policy under natural exploration conditions, irrespective of whether the initial model has good coverage. Our analysis, which builds on the observation that DPO implicitly performs a form of $Q^{\star}$-approximation (or, Bellman error minimization), combines previously disparate techniques from language modeling and theoretical reinforcement learning in a serendipitous fashion through the perspective of KL-regularized Markov decision processes. Empirically, we find that XPO is more sample-efficient than non-exploratory DPO variants in a preliminary evaluation.

It is becoming increasingly common to deploy algorithms for reinforcement learning and control in systems where the underlying ("latent") dynamics are nonlinear, continuous, and low-dimensional, yet the agent perceives the environment through high-dimensional ("rich") observations such as images from a camera (Wahlström et al., 2015; Levine et al., 2016; Kumar et al., 2021; Nair et al., 2023; Baker et al., 2022; Brohan et al., 2022). These domains demand that agents (i) efficiently explore in the face of complex nonlinearities, and (ii) learn continuous representations that respect the structure of the latent dynamics, ideally in tandem with exploration. In spite of extensive empirical investigation into modeling and algorithm design (Laskin et al., 2020; Yarats et al., 2021a; Hafner et al., 2023), sample-efficiency and reliability remain major challenges (Dean et al., 2020), and our understanding of fundamental algorithmic principles for representation learning and exploration is still in its infancy. Toward understanding algorithmic principles and fundamental limits for reinforcement learning and control with high-dimensional observations, a recent line of theoretical research adopts the framework of richobservation reinforcement learning (c.f., Du et al., 2019; Misra et al., 2020; Mhammedi et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2022; Mhammedi et al., 2023b). Rich-observation RL provides a mathematical framework for the design and analysis of algorithms that perform exploration in the presence of high-dimensional observations, with an emphasis on generalization and sample-efficiency. However, existing work in this domain is largely restricted to systems with discrete ("tabular") latent dynamics, which is unsuitable for most real-world control applications.

Exploration is a major challenge in reinforcement learning, especially for high-dimensional domains that require function approximation. We propose exploration objectives -- policy optimization objectives that enable downstream maximization of any reward function -- as a conceptual framework to systematize the study of exploration. Within this framework, we introduce a new objective, $L_1$-Coverage, which generalizes previous exploration schemes and supports three fundamental desiderata: 1. Intrinsic complexity control. $L_1$-Coverage is associated with a structural parameter, $L_1$-Coverability, which reflects the intrinsic statistical difficulty of the underlying MDP, subsuming Block and Low-Rank MDPs. 2. Efficient planning. For a known MDP, optimizing $L_1$-Coverage efficiently reduces to standard policy optimization, allowing flexible integration with off-the-shelf methods such as policy gradient and Q-learning approaches. 3. Efficient exploration. $L_1$-Coverage enables the first computationally efficient model-based and model-free algorithms for online (reward-free or reward-driven) reinforcement learning in MDPs with low coverability. Empirically, we find that $L_1$-Coverage effectively drives off-the-shelf policy optimization algorithms to explore the state space.

A pervasive phenomenon in machine learning applications is distribution shift, where training and deployment conditions for a machine learning model differ. As distribution shift typically results in a degradation in performance, much attention has been devoted to algorithmic interventions that mitigate these detrimental effects. In this paper, we study the effect of distribution shift in the presence of model misspecification, specifically focusing on $L_{\infty}$-misspecified regression and adversarial covariate shift, where the regression target remains fixed while the covariate distribution changes arbitrarily. We show that empirical risk minimization, or standard least squares regression, can result in undesirable misspecification amplification where the error due to misspecification is amplified by the density ratio between the training and testing distributions. As our main result, we develop a new algorithm -- inspired by robust optimization techniques -- that avoids this undesirable behavior, resulting in no misspecification amplification while still obtaining optimal statistical rates. As applications, we use this regression procedure to obtain new guarantees in offline and online reinforcement learning with misspecification and establish new separations between previously studied structural conditions and notions of coverage.