We study the problem of closeness testing for continuous distributions and its implications for causal discovery. Specifically, we analyze the sample complexity of distinguishing whether two multidimensional continuous distributions are identical or differ by at least $\epsilon$ in terms of Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence under non-parametric assumptions. To this end, we propose an estimator of KL divergence which is based on the von Mises expansion. Our closeness test attains optimal parametric rates under smoothness assumptions. Equipped with this test, which serves as a building block of our causal discovery algorithm to identify the causal structure between two multidimensional random variables, we establish sample complexity guarantees for our causal discovery method. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first work that provides sample complexity guarantees for distinguishing cause and effect in multidimensional non-linear models with non-Gaussian continuous variables in the presence of unobserved confounding.

Multi-armed bandits (MABs) are frequently used for online sequential decision-making in applications ranging from recommending personalized content to assigning treatments to patients. A recurring challenge in the applicability of the classic MAB framework to real-world settings is ignoring \textit{interference}, where a unit's outcome depends on treatment assigned to others. This leads to an exponentially growing action space, rendering standard approaches computationally impractical. We study the MAB problem under network interference, where each unit's reward depends on its own treatment and those of its neighbors in a given interference graph. We propose a novel algorithm that uses the local structure of the interference graph to minimize regret. We derive a graph-dependent upper bound on cumulative regret showing that it improves over prior work. Additionally, we provide the first lower bounds for bandits with arbitrary network interference, where each bound involves a distinct structural property of the interference graph. These bounds demonstrate that when the graph is either dense or sparse, our algorithm is nearly optimal, with upper and lower bounds that match up to logarithmic factors. We complement our theoretical results with numerical experiments, which show that our approach outperforms baseline methods.

We introduce the problem of best arm identification (BAI) with post-action context, a new BAI problem in a stochastic multi-armed bandit environment and the fixed-confidence setting. The problem addresses the scenarios in which the learner receives a $\textit{post-action context}$ in addition to the reward after playing each action. This post-action context provides additional information that can significantly facilitate the decision process. We analyze two different types of the post-action context: (i) $\textit{non-separator}$, where the reward depends on both the action and the context, and (ii) $\textit{separator}$, where the reward depends solely on the context. For both cases, we derive instance-dependent lower bounds on the sample complexity and propose algorithms that asymptotically achieve the optimal sample complexity. For the non-separator setting, we do so by demonstrating that the Track-and-Stop algorithm can be extended to this setting. For the separator setting, we propose a novel sampling rule called $\textit{G-tracking}$, which uses the geometry of the context space to directly track the contexts rather than the actions. Finally, our empirical results showcase the advantage of our approaches compared to the state of the art.

While significant progress has been made in designing algorithms that minimize regret in online decision-making, real-world scenarios often introduce additional complexities, perhaps the most challenging of which is missing outcomes. Overlooking this aspect or simply assuming random missingness invariably leads to biased estimates of the rewards and may result in linear regret. Despite the practical relevance of this challenge, no rigorous methodology currently exists for systematically handling missingness, especially when the missingness mechanism is not random. In this paper, we address this gap in the context of multi-armed bandits (MAB) with missing outcomes by analyzing the impact of different missingness mechanisms on achievable regret bounds. We introduce algorithms that account for missingness under both missing at random (MAR) and missing not at random (MNAR) models. Through both analytical and simulation studies, we demonstrate the drastic improvements in decision-making by accounting for missingness in these settings.

Causal discovery is essential for understanding relationships among variables of interest in many scientific domains. In this paper, we focus on permutation-based methods for learning causal graphs in Linear Gaussian Acyclic Models (LiGAMs), where the permutation encodes a causal ordering of the variables. Existing methods in this setting are not scalable due to their high computational complexity. These methods are comprised of two main components: (i) constructing a specific DAG, $\mathcal{G}^\pi$, for a given permutation $\pi$, which represents the best structure that can be learned from the available data while adhering to $\pi$, and (ii) searching over the space of permutations (i.e., causal orders) to minimize the number of edges in $\mathcal{G}^\pi$. We introduce QWO, a novel approach that significantly enhances the efficiency of computing $\mathcal{G}^\pi$ for a given permutation $\pi$. QWO has a speed-up of $O(n^2)$ ($n$ is the number of variables) compared to the state-of-the-art BIC-based method, making it highly scalable. We show that our method is theoretically sound and can be integrated into existing search strategies such as GRASP and hill-climbing-based methods to improve their performance.

Identifying causal effects is a key problem of interest across many disciplines. The two long-standing approaches to estimate causal effects are observational and experimental (randomized) studies. Observational studies can suffer from unmeasured confounding, which may render the causal effects unidentifiable. On the other hand, direct experiments on the target variable may be too costly or even infeasible to conduct. A middle ground between these two approaches is to estimate the causal effect of interest through proxy experiments, which are conducted on variables with a lower cost to intervene on compared to the main target. Akbari et al. [2022] studied this setting and demonstrated that the problem of designing the optimal (minimum-cost) experiment for causal effect identification is NP-complete and provided a naive algorithm that may require solving exponentially many NP-hard problems as a sub-routine in the worst case. In this work, we provide a few reformulations of the problem that allow for designing significantly more efficient algorithms to solve it as witnessed by our extensive simulations. Additionally, we study the closely-related problem of designing experiments that enable us to identify a given effect through valid adjustments sets.

We study the generic identifiability of causal effects in linear non-Gaussian acyclic models (LiNGAM) with latent variables. We consider the problem in two main settings: When the causal graph is known a priori, and when it is unknown. In both settings, we provide a complete graphical characterization of the identifiable direct or total causal effects among observed variables. Moreover, we propose efficient algorithms to certify the graphical conditions. Finally, we propose an adaptation of the reconstruction independent component analysis (RICA) algorithm that estimates the causal effects from the observational data given the causal graph. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed method in estimating the causal effects.

The s-ID problem seeks to compute a causal effect in a specific sub-population from the observational data pertaining to the same sub population (Abouei et al., 2023). This problem has been addressed when all the variables in the system are observable. In this paper, we consider an extension of the s-ID problem that allows for the presence of latent variables. To tackle the challenges induced by the presence of latent variables in a sub-population, we first extend the classical relevant graphical definitions, such as c-components and Hedges, initially defined for the so-called ID problem (Pearl, 1995; Tian & Pearl, 2002), to their new counterparts. Subsequently, we propose a sound algorithm for the s-ID problem with latent variables.

Causal discovery, i.e., learning the causal graph from data, is often the first step toward the identification and estimation of causal effects, a key requirement in numerous scientific domains. Causal discovery is hampered by two main challenges: limited data results in errors in statistical testing and the computational complexity of the learning task is daunting. This paper builds upon and extends four of our prior publications (Mokhtarian et al., 2021; Akbari et al., 2021; Mokhtarian et al., 2022, 2023a). These works introduced the concept of removable variables, which are the only variables that can be removed recursively for the purpose of causal discovery. Presence and identification of removable variables allow recursive approaches for causal discovery, a promising solution that helps to address the aforementioned challenges by reducing the problem size successively. This reduction not only minimizes conditioning sets in each conditional independence (CI) test, leading to fewer errors but also significantly decreases the number of required CI tests. The worst-case performances of these methods nearly match the lower bound. In this paper, we present a unified framework for the proposed algorithms, refined with additional details and enhancements for a coherent presentation. A comprehensive literature review is also included, comparing the computational complexity of our methods with existing approaches, showcasing their state-of-the-art efficiency. Another contribution of this paper is the release of RCD, a Python package that efficiently implements these algorithms. This package is designed for practitioners and researchers interested in applying these methods in practical scenarios. The package is available at github.com/ban-epfl/rcd, with comprehensive documentation provided at rcdpackage.com.

We study the problem of learning 'good' interventions in a stochastic environment modeled by its underlying causal graph. Good interventions refer to interventions that maximize rewards. Specifically, we consider the setting of a pre-specified budget constraint, where interventions can have non-uniform costs. We show that this problem can be formulated as maximizing the expected reward for a stochastic multi-armed bandit with side information. We propose an algorithm to minimize the cumulative regret in general causal graphs. This algorithm trades off observations and interventions based on their costs to achieve the optimal reward. This algorithm generalizes the state-of-the-art methods by allowing non-uniform costs and hidden confounders in the causal graph. Furthermore, we develop an algorithm to minimize the simple regret in the budgeted setting with non-uniform costs and also general causal graphs. We provide theoretical guarantees, including both upper and lower bounds, as well as empirical evaluations of our algorithms. Our empirical results showcase that our algorithms outperform the state of the art.