As for other forms of AI, speech recognition has recently been examined with respect to performance disparities across different user cohorts. One approach to achieve fairness in speech recognition is to (1) identify speaker cohorts that suffer from subpar performance and (2) apply fairness mitigation measures targeting the cohorts discovered. In this paper, we report on initial findings with both discovery and mitigation of performance disparities using data from a product-scale AI assistant speech recognition system. We compare cohort discovery based on geographic and demographic information to a more scalable method that groups speakers without human labels, using speaker embedding technology. For fairness mitigation, we find that oversampling of underrepresented cohorts, as well as modeling speaker cohort membership by additional input variables, reduces the gap between top- and bottom-performing cohorts, without deteriorating overall recognition accuracy.

Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. Importantly, we develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient computing strategies for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.

Complex games such as RTS games are naturally formalized as Markov games. Given a Markov game, it is often possible to hand-code or learn a set of policies that capture the diversity of possible strategies. It is also often possible to hand-code or learn an abstract simulator of the game that can estimate the outcome of playing two strategies against one another from any state. We consider how to use such policy sets and simulators to make decisions in large Markov games. Prior work has considered the problem using an approach we call minimax policy switching. At each decision epoch, all policy pairs are simulated against each other from the current state, and the minimax policy is chosen and used to select actions until the next decision epoch. While intuitively appealing, we show that this switching policy can have arbitrarily poor worst case performance. In response, we describe a modified algorithm, monotone policy switching, whose worst case performance, under certain conditions, is provably no worse than the minimax fixed policy in the set. We evaluate these switching policies in both a simulated RTS game and the real game Wargus. The results show the effectiveness of policy switching when the simulator is accurate, and also highlight challenges in the face of inaccurate simulations.