Deep neural networks offer an alternative paradigm for modeling weather conditions. The ability of neural models to make a prediction in less than a second once the data is available and to do so with very high temporal and spatial resolution, and the ability to learn directly from atmospheric observations, are just some of these models' unique advantages. Neural models trained using atmospheric observations, the highest fidelity and lowest latency data, have to date achieved good performance only up to twelve hours of lead time when compared with state-of-the-art probabilistic Numerical Weather Prediction models and only for the sole variable of precipitation. In this paper, we present MetNet-3 that extends significantly both the lead time range and the variables that an observation based neural model can predict well. MetNet-3 learns from both dense and sparse data sensors and makes predictions up to 24 hours ahead for precipitation, wind, temperature and dew point. MetNet-3 introduces a key densification technique that implicitly captures data assimilation and produces spatially dense forecasts in spite of the network training on extremely sparse targets. MetNet-3 has a high temporal and spatial resolution of, respectively, up to 2 minutes and 1 km as well as a low operational latency. We find that MetNet-3 is able to outperform the best single- and multi-member NWPs such as HRRR and ENS over the CONUS region for up to 24 hours ahead setting a new performance milestone for observation based neural models. MetNet-3 is operational and its forecasts are served in Google Search in conjunction with other models.

We focus on the problem of domain adaptation when the goal is shifting the model towards the target distribution, rather than learning domain invariant representations. It has been shown that under the following two assumptions: (a) access to samples from intermediate distributions, and (b) samples being annotated with the amount of change from the source distribution, self-training can be successfully applied on gradually shifted samples to adapt the model toward the target distribution. We hypothesize having (a) is enough to enable iterative self-training to slowly adapt the model to the target distribution, by making use of an implicit curriculum. In the case where (a) does not hold, we observe that iterative self-training falls short. We propose GIFT, a method that creates virtual samples from intermediate distributions by interpolating representations of examples from source and target domains. We evaluate an iterative-self-training method on datasets with natural distribution shifts, and show that when applied on top of other domain adaptation methods, it improves the performance of the model on the target dataset. We run an analysis on a synthetic dataset to show that in the presence of (a) iterative-self-training naturally forms a curriculum of samples. Furthermore, we show that when (a) does not hold, GIFT performs better than iterative self-training.

The two fields of machine learning and graphical causality arose and developed separately. However, there is now cross-pollination and increasing interest in both fields to benefit from the advances of the other. In the present paper, we review fundamental concepts of causal inference and relate them to crucial open problems of machine learning, including transfer and generalization, thereby assaying how causality can contribute to modern machine learning research. This also applies in the opposite direction: we note that most work in causality starts from the premise that the causal variables are given. A central problem for AI and causality is, thus, causal representation learning, the discovery of high-level causal variables from low-level observations. Finally, we delineate some implications of causality for machine learning and propose key research areas at the intersection of both communities.

We present the Colorization Transformer, a novel approach for diverse high fidelity image colorization based on self-attention. Given a grayscale image, the colorization proceeds in three steps. We first use a conditional autoregressive transformer to produce a low resolution coarse coloring of the grayscale image. Our architecture adopts conditional transformer layers to effectively condition grayscale input. Two subsequent fully parallel networks upsample the coarse colored low resolution image into a finely colored high resolution image. Sampling from the Colorization Transformer produces diverse colorings whose fidelity outperforms the previous state-of-the-art on colorising ImageNet based on FID results and based on a human evaluation in a Mechanical Turk test. Remarkably, in more than 60% of cases human evaluators prefer the highest rated among three generated colorings over the ground truth. The code and pre-trained checkpoints for Colorization Transformer are publicly available at this url. Image colorization is a challenging, inherently stochastic task that requires a semantic understanding of the scene as well as knowledge of the world.

Speech synthesis is an important practical generative modeling problem that has seen great progress over the last few years, with likelihood-based autoregressive neural models now outperforming traditional concatenative systems. A downside of such autoregressive models is that they require executing tens of thousands of sequential operations per second of generated audio, making them ill-suited for deployment on specialized deep learning hardware. Here, we propose a new learning method that allows us to train highly parallel models of speech, without requiring access to an analytical likelihood function. Our approach is based on a generalized energy distance between the distributions of the generated and real audio. This spectral energy distance is a proper scoring rule with respect to the distribution over magnitude-spectrograms of the generated waveform audio and offers statistical consistency guarantees. The distance can be calculated from minibatches without bias, and does not involve adversarial learning, yielding a stable and consistent method for training implicit generative models. Empirically, we achieve state-of-the-art generation quality among implicit generative models, as judged by the recently-proposed cFDSD metric. When combining our method with adversarial techniques, we also improve upon the recently-proposed GAN-TTS model in terms of Mean Opinion Score as judged by trained human evaluators.

Bayesian inference promises to ground and improve the performance of deep neural networks. It promises to be robust to overfitting, to simplify the training procedure and the space of hyperparameters, and to provide a calibrated measure of uncertainty that can enhance decision making, agent exploration and prediction fairness. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods enable Bayesian inference by generating samples from the posterior distribution over model parameters. Despite the theoretical advantages of Bayesian inference and the similarity between MCMC and optimization methods, the performance of sampling methods has so far lagged behind optimization methods for large scale deep learning tasks. We aim to fill this gap and introduce ATMC, an adaptive noise MCMC algorithm that estimates and is able to sample from the posterior of a neural network. ATMC dynamically adjusts the amount of momentum and noise applied to each parameter update in order to compensate for the use of stochastic gradients. We use a ResNet architecture without batch normalization to test ATMC on the Cifar10 benchmark and the large scale ImageNet benchmark and show that, despite the absence of batch normalization, ATMC outperforms a strong optimization baseline in terms of both classification accuracy and test log-likelihood. We show that ATMC is intrinsically robust to overfitting on the training data and that ATMC provides a better calibrated measure of uncertainty compared to the optimization baseline.

The unconditional generation of high fidelity images is a longstanding benchmark for testing the performance of image decoders. Autoregressive image models have been able to generate small images unconditionally, but the extension of these methods to large images where fidelity can be more readily assessed has remained an open problem. Among the major challenges are the capacity to encode the vast previous context and the sheer difficulty of learning a distribution that preserves both global semantic coherence and exactness of detail. To address the former challenge, we propose the Subscale Pixel Network (SPN), a conditional decoder architecture that generates an image as a sequence of sub-images of equal size. The SPN compactly captures image-wide spatial dependencies and requires a fraction of the memory and the computation required by other fully autoregressive models. To address the latter challenge, we propose to use Multidimensional Upscaling to grow an image in both size and depth via intermediate stages utilising distinct SPNs. We evaluate SPNs on the unconditional generation of CelebAHQ of size 256 and of ImageNet from size 32 to 256. We achieve state-of-the-art likelihood results in multiple settings, set up new benchmark results in previously unexplored settings and are able to generate very high fidelity large scale samples on the basis of both datasets.

This work explores conditional image generation with a new image density model based on the PixelCNN architecture. The model can be conditioned on any vector, including descriptive labels or tags, or latent embeddings created by other networks. When conditioned on class labels from the ImageNet database, the model is able to generate diverse, realistic scenes representing distinct animals, objects, landscapes and structures. When conditioned on an embedding produced by a convolutional network given a single image of an unseen face, it generates a variety of new portraits of the same person with different facial expressions, poses and lighting conditions. We also show that conditional PixelCNN can serve as a powerful decoder in an image autoencoder. Additionally, the gated convolutional layers in the proposed model improve the log-likelihood of PixelCNN to match the state-of-the-art performance of PixelRNN on ImageNet, with greatly reduced computational cost.

Capturing the compositional process which maps the meaning of words to that of documents is a central challenge for researchers in Natural Language Processing and Information Retrieval. We introduce a model that is able to represent the meaning of documents by embedding them in a low dimensional vector space, while preserving distinctions of word and sentence order crucial for capturing nuanced semantics. Our model is based on an extended Dynamic Convolution Neural Network, which learns convolution filters at both the sentence and document level, hierarchically learning to capture and compose low level lexical features into high level semantic concepts. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this model on a range of document modelling tasks, achieving strong results with no feature engineering and with a more compact model. Inspired by recent advances in visualising deep convolution networks for computer vision, we present a novel visualisation technique for our document networks which not only provides insight into their learning process, but also can be interpreted to produce a compelling automatic summarisation system for texts.